Alert archive / New York / Gale Watches in 2024
Gale Watch 2, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this gale watch at Jan 11, 2024, 3:46 AM EST. It took effect at Jan 12, 2024, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for .
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 11, 2024, 3:46 AM EST (08:46 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jan 12, 2024, 7:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Jan 11, 2024, 2:06 PM EST
- In force
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
The text
As transmitted.
019 WHUS71 KBUF 110846 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 346 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 LOZ042-111700- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240111T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0002.240113T1200Z-240114T1800Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 346 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING... ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. For the Gale Watch, southwest winds to 40 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet possible. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 AM EST this morning. For the Gale Watch, from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves. && $$ LOZ043-111700- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240111T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0002.240113T1200Z-240114T1800Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 346 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING... ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. For the Gale Watch, southwest winds to 40 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet possible. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 AM EST this morning. For the Gale Watch, from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves. && $$ LOZ044-045-111700- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240111T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0002.240113T1200Z-240114T1800Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 346 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet. For the Gale Watch, southwest winds to 45 knots and waves 15 to 19 feet possible. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM EST this afternoon. For the Gale Watch, from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves. && $$ LEZ040-041-111700- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240112T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T1800Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 346 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY... ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. For the Gale Watch, southeast winds to 35 knots possible Friday night, then southwest winds to 45 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet possible. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 AM EST Friday. For the Gale Watch, from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves. && $$ LOZ062>065-111700- /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.A.0002.240113T1200Z-240114T1800Z/ Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 346 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Southwest winds to 45 knots and waves 15 to 20 feet possible. * WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves. && $$ Apffel
3 follow-up statements
872 WHUS71 KBUF 111118 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 618 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 LOZ042-043-112000- /O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240111T1200Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.240113T1200Z-240114T1800Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 618 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Southwest winds to 40 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet possible. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves. && $$ LEZ040-041-112000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240112T0600Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T1800Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 618 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY... ...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. For the Gale Watch, southwest winds to 45 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet possible. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 AM EST Friday. For the Gale Watch, from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves. && $$ LOZ044-045-112000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240111T1800Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.240113T1200Z-240114T1800Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 618 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds 10 to 15 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. For the Gale Watch, southwest winds to 45 knots and waves 15 to 19 feet possible. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM EST this afternoon. For the Gale Watch, from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves. && $$ LOZ062>065-112000- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.240113T1200Z-240114T1800Z/ Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 618 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Southwest winds to 45 knots and waves 15 to 20 feet possible. * WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves. && $$ Apffel
424 WHUS71 KBUF 111754 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1254 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 LOZ044-045-120200- /O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240111T1800Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.240113T1200Z-240114T1800Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 1254 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Southwest winds to 45 knots and waves 15 to 19 feet possible. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves. && $$ LEZ040-041-120200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240112T0600Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T1800Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 1254 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY... ...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. For the Gale Watch, southwest winds to 45 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet possible. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 AM EST Friday. For the Gale Watch, from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves. && $$ LOZ042-043-062>065-120200- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.240113T1200Z-240114T1800Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 1254 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Southwest winds to 45 knots and waves 15 to 20 feet possible. * WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to the Saint Lawrence River, and the nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves. && $$
794 WHUS71 KBUF 111906 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 206 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 LEZ040-041-120315- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-240112T0600Z/ /O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T2100Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 206 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, west winds 10 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. For the Gale Warning, southwest winds to 45 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet expected. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 AM EST Friday. For the Gale Warning, from 7 PM Friday to 4 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ LOZ042>045-062>065-120315- /O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0002.240113T1200Z-240114T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0002.240113T0000Z-240115T0200Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 206 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Southwest winds to 45 knots and waves 15 to 20 feet expected. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario. * WHEN...From 7 PM Friday to 9 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale watch went out at Jan 11, 12:47 AM EST, 2 hours 59 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 11, 12:47 AM EST, 2 hours 59 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1247 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Colder air pouring into the region in the wake of a departing low
will support lake effect snow to the east of both lakes into
Thursday with up to a foot of snow locally on the Tug Hill plateau,
and light to moderate accumulations for the higher terrain east of
Lake Erie. A fast moving clipper system will also bring a general
light snow to western New York on Thursday. Another powerful storm
will then impact the region this weekend with more widespread
damaging winds Friday night and Saturday, followed by significant
lake snows Saturday night through at least Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Winds will continue to gradually subside overnight. Colder air
has settled into the region, and is supporting a lake response
that will continue through Thursday. The airmass is only
marginally cold enough, but will combine with upslope
enhancement to produce locally heavy snow for the Tug Hill east
of Lake Ontario, and light to moderate accumulations for the
higher terrain east of Lake Erie.
Off Lake Ontario...west flow with only minor north/south fluctuations
at times will continue through the rest of tonight into Thursday
morning. This will direct the heaviest lake effect/upslope snow into
the central and southern Tug Hill. The marginal temperature profile
will likely prevent this from getting too heavy, but still may see
some 1"/hr snowfall rates overnight through Thursday morning. From
mid to late morning through the afternoon boundary layer flow will
back to the southwest, and shear will also increase. This will carry
lake effect snow north across Jefferson County and likely force it
to broaden out into an area of lake enhanced snow during the
afternoon. Thursday night boundary layer flow will veer back to the
west, carrying lake effect snow back south across the Tug Hill into
central Oswego County overnight before weakening.
The heaviest snow amounts will be highly elevation dependent given
the marginal temperatures and importance of upslope flow. Storm
totals will likely reach the 8-12" range across the Tug Hill, with
only 2-4" for surrounding lower elevations.
Off Lake Erie...relatively modest lake effect snow will continue
east of the lake through the early overnight, mainly across northern
portions of the Southern Tier and far southern Erie/Wyoming
counties. This band will begin to move north late tonight, reaching
the Buffalo Metro area just before daybreak. Amounts will be light,
but this may deposit an inch or so of snow across the Buffalo area
just prior to or during the morning commute. The lake snow will then
broaden out into the general synoptic light snow for most of the
day, then strengthen somewhat and move back south across Buffalo and
into the western Southern Tier from mid afternoon through early to
mid evening. This may bring another brief burst of snow for the
evening commute.
Expect totals of 3-6" across the higher terrain of the Boston Hills,
western Wyoming County, and northern portions of Chautauqua and
Cattaraugus counties from tonight through Thursday night. Farther
north, the Niagara Frontier may end up with 1-3" from a combination
of lake effect and the light synoptic snow.
Meanwhile, a progressive clipper system will zip through the
eastern Great Lakes region Thursday bringing some general light
snow or snow showers to the area. Temperatures will be marginal,
but for the most part thermal profiles suggest mainly snow. The
the short duration of this system will greatly limit accumulation
potential, with areas outside of the lake effect snow areas only
seeing an inch or less with localized 1-2 inch amounts possible by
the end of the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...The Next Powerful Storm to Impact the Region This Weekend with
STRONG Winds and SIGNIFICANT Lake Snows...
We will start the period off quiet Friday morning, with mainly dry
weather expected through the daylight hours. Highs will be in the
upper 30s lower elevations (low 40s Lake Erie shore) with low to mid
30s elsewhere. Southeasterly winds will start to ramp up across
western NY Friday afternoon as models continue to advertise
anomalously strong (sub 980mb) area of low pressure passing by to
our west and northwest Friday night and Saturday. This will be a
similar scenario to the storm that just impacted our area on
Tuesday, with strong southeasterly winds on the front side of the
system impacting the same areas that were just battered by the
previous storm. Wind profiles, strength of low pressure system, and
track are all very similar, so expect similar conditions with this
system. Localized downslope areas between the terrain and Lake Erie
shore and the north/northwest facing slopes of the Tug Hill will
again see the highest impacts, but expect it to be very windy in
general with a tight pressure gradient in place owed to the -4/-5SD
low. Precipitation will may start off in the frozen form once again
(especially across higher terrain), with a transition of rain to
snow from southwest to northeast through the first half of Friday
night. That said, latest guidance is trending a bit cooler for
Friday night, but will hold with current forecast and see if trend
continues before changing anything. Expect at least minor
accumulations on the front end (onset), especially across the higher
terrain and areas east of Lake Ontario, before the transition to
plain rain overnight. If colder air can remain locked in across the
North Country, precip may only briefly mix with or change to rain
across Tug Hill/western Dacks, which would bring more significant
front end snowfall amounts. Otherwise, will have a non-diurnal
temperature trend with temps remaining nearly steady or slowly
rising through the 30s before strong occluded front plows across the
area from west to east second half of Friday night through the first
half of Saturday. Coldest airmass of the season starts to pour in
across the region by the start of Saturday morning with rain already
transitioning back to snow across the western Southern Tier.
Temperatures will fall across WNY through the day Saturday, with
falling temps from midday on across the eastern Lake Ontario region
with all areas down near freezing or below by the end of the day.
Strong CAA in the wake of the fropa will cause rain to transition
back to snow from west to east and from high terrain to low by
mid/late afternoon with some accumulations possible. One difference
with this system will be the more traditional strong
southwesterly/westerly wind field aloft in the post-frontal polar
airmass that will likely bring the next or just continue the next
round of wind headlines for the region as strong CAA helps mix
strong winds aloft down to the surface. Widespread synoptic
precipitation will pull off to the northeast Saturday afternoon with
lake effect snows starting to organize downwind of the lakes as very
cold air pours across the relatively warmer lake waters.
Plenty of lingering synoptic moisture and a saturated DGZ in play
should allow lake effect snows to get cranking Saturday night and
Sunday, mainly across areas east of Lakes Erie and Ontario, south of
Buffalo and Watertown. Still too early for specifics such as exact
band placement and accumulations, but localized significant snow
amounts do look likely through the second half of the weekend across
these areas. It will also remain windy, which will also mean the
potential for areas of blowing snow. It will be much colder with
lows in mid teens to low 20s Saturday night and highs Sunday low to
mid 20s, upper teens higher terrain.
Model guidance diverges some toward the tail end of the period,
however overall consensus advertises winds backing more
southwesterly later Sunday and Sunday night. This would take any
lake effect activity and send it northeast of the lakes, possibly
impacting the Buffalo and Watertown areas. Will need to monitor
trends. Lows Sunday night mainly in the teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
This period will feature a stretch of much colder weather with below
normal temperatures settling in across the eastern Great Lakes and
northeast CONUS. This will likely lead to a continuation for the
potential for lake effect snow early in the period. Pattern suggests
that the lake effect may try to nudge northward as the flow becomes
southwesterly for a time which would send the lake effect northeast
possibly impacting the Buffalo and Watertown areas early next week.
Confidence in how the lake effect snow evolves thereafter gets lower
as the pattern will become more complicated with the development and
eventual northward influence of a coastal low which would disrupt the
lake effect pattern in place.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread MVFR CIGS in stratus will continue overnight in most
areas. Lake effect snow will bring local IFR east of Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario overnight. Off Lake Erie, lake effect snow will
move north across KBUF and KIAG this morning, resulting in a 2-3
hour period of IFR or lower conditions. The band will push
north of KBUF during the day, then move back southward across
the airfield in the afternoon.
Off Lake Ontario lake snows will move in during the afternoon,
with lower confidence since the band will be on the fringe of
KART.
Elsewhere a clipper low will produce general light snow as it
moves through during the afternoon and evening with MVFR to
occasionally IFR flight conditions. Lake snows will push
southward in the evening with KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART improving
while vsby lowers at KJHW.
Outlook...
Friday...VFR most of the day. MVFR/IFR late afternoon and Friday
night with snow/rain developing. Strong winds Friday night.
Saturday...Strong winds. MVFR/IFR with rain changing to snow from
west to east.
Sunday...Windy. Heavy lake effect snow with IFR and lower east
of the lakes, MVFR/VFR outside of lake effect.
Monday...Heavy lake effect snow northeast of the lakes with
IFR and lower. MVFR/VFR outside of lake effect.
&&
.MARINE...
A very deep storm system exiting to Quebec will allow winds to
continue to diminish overnight. Dropped the last of the gale
warnings for this event. It will remain windy through Thursday
though, with small craft headlines for most of the waters.
Another very deep storm system will arrive into the eastern
Great Lakes Friday and into this weekend. This will be a
complicated wind forecast depending upon the exact track of the
storm system with winds initially out of the east Friday,
becoming southeast Friday night, then shifting to southwest Saturday
with winds strengthening up to at least 40 knot gales, with some
potential for 50 knot storms.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for NYZ006>008.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ012-
019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
LOZ042-043.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
LOZ044-045.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...Apffel/Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMAHazardous weather outlook, Jan 11, 12:39 AM EST, 3 hours 7 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1239 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 NYZ012-019-020-085-120545- Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- 1239 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. A storm system passing near area this weekend will likely produce another round of strong winds Friday night through Saturday night. This may be followed by a significant lake effect event Saturday night through at least Sunday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ010-011-120545- Northern Erie-Genesee- 1239 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. A strong storm system passing near area this weekend will likely produce another round of strong winds Friday night into Saturday night. This may then be followed by a significant lake effect snow event. The snow is expected to be south of Buffalo and Batavia initially, but may move into the area late Sunday through Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ001>005-013-014-021-120545- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario- Allegany- 1239 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. A strong storm system passing near area this weekend will likely produce another round of strong winds Friday night into Saturday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ006>008-120545- Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- 1239 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Lake Effect Snow Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Lake Effect Snow Warning. A strong storm system passing near area this weekend will likely produce another round of strong winds Saturday through Saturday night, and possibly significant lake effect snow Saturday night through Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-120545- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 1239 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-LOZ030-120545- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River- 1239 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf SLZ022-024-120545- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 1239 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 3:42 AM EST | High Wind Watch | BUF | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 10 more | 23 hr |
| Jan 11, 3:43 AM EST | Lakeshore Flood Watch | BUF | Chautauqua, Erie | 23 hr |
| Jan 11, 1:56 PM EST | Winter Storm Watch | BUF | Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Jefferson, Lewis and 2 more | 23 hr |
| Jan 11, 2:06 PM EST | Gale Warning | BUF | 3 days |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.