Storm Warning 40, NWS Anchorage, AK

096 
FZAK52 PAFC 130105
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-131415-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 mb low 180 nm south of Cold Bay moves rapidly north across 
the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon, lifting into the Kuskokwim 
Delta by Tue afternoon. An additional area of low pressure lifts N
out of the N Pacific, reaching 330 nm S of Sand Point at 976 mb 
by Wed afternoon.


$$

PKZ750-131415-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ751-131415-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ752-131415-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ753-131415-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ754-131415-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ755-131415-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ756-131415-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ757-131415-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ758-131415-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ759-131415-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ770-131415-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ772-131415-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ771-131415-
Unalaska Bay-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ773-131415-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ774-131415-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ775-131415-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ776-131415-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ777-131415-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ778-131415-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 29 ft.

$$

PKZ780-131415-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ781-131415-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ782-131415-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 30 ft.

$$

PKZ783-131415-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 33 ft.

$$

PKZ784-131415-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ785-131415-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 37 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 37 ft.

$$

PKZ786-131415-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ787-131415-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 32 ft.

$$

PKZ766-131415-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ760-131415-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ761-131415-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
and rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ762-131415-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Snow
showers and rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 3 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ763-131415-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 4 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ764-131415-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ765-131415-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ767-131415-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
405 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NW
20 kt W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
Freezing spray.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 PM AKST Sun Feb 11 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Wednesday)...

A weakening gale force low is centered near the Barren Islands
this afternoon, pushing a front into the southern Kenai Peninsula
and across the northern Gulf of Alaska. Surface temperatures in
the low to mid 30s along the coast are leading to precipitation
falling mostly as snow. The low will continue to press northward
into Prince William Sound through the next hour or two, bringing
a round of steady snowfall that will bring 3 to 6 inches of snow
to the Valdez and Cordova areas through early Monday morning. For
inland areas, precipitation chances have been increased a little,
with numerous showers possible along the western Kenai Peninsula
this evening, and scattered showers for Anchorage and the
Matanuska Valley closer to midnight as the greatest forcing and
instability associated with the front lifts northward.
Snow accumulations with these showers are expected to be minimal -
less than an inch. Upsloping along the Talkeetna Mountains and in
the northern Susitna Valley may lead to more numerous snow shower
development later tonight.

Focus then shifts to a low tracking from the North Pacific toward
the Alaska Peninsula, helping to amplify the upper-level pattern
and build strong ridging over the eastern Gulf and nudging into
Southcentral Alaska. The low will lift a warm front across the
coastal mountains around mid-day on Monday as pressure falls out
west, leading to a rapid increase in southeasterly winds across
the area, with the typical enhanced winds through mountain gaps.
Additionally however will be the threat of high winds,
particularly for the Anchorage Hillside, as much of the model
guidance is hinting at an inversion setting up between 850 and 700
mb allowing a layer of 65 knot (75 mph) wind gusts to mix down to
between 2000 and 4000 ft above sea level. A High Wind Watch has
been issued to highlight this potential. Modestly unstable air in
the lower levels may also allow wind gusts up to 40 mph or higher
at times in portions of the Anchorage Bowl, but there is currently
high uncertainty in the timing and strength of the winds. With the
arrival of southeasterly winds in the afternoon, expect
temperatures to rise back into the upper 30s, likely hitting 40 in
spots. Temperatures will hover in this range as long as the winds
stick around, which currently looks to last through at least
Tuesday, with potential successive rounds of (likely weaker)
southeasterly winds into Wednesday.

Further west, a negatively tilted trough will extend from the
Bering Sea southeastward into the northeast Pacific, directing an
upper level jet and atmospheric river at the Alaska Peninsula and
continuing up across western Alaska. Model spread is less than in
previous days, though there are still some minor differences in
surface low track as well as exact placement of the jet and
atmospheric river. Based on the mean position, it looks highly
favorable for Kodiak Island to see a prolonged period of rain
beginning Monday. The area of steady precipitation will extend up
to the Alaska Peninsula and the west side of the Cook Inlet and
possibly as far north as the western Susitna Valley. The
strengthening winds will also lead to some upslope precipitation
along the coast. If the atmospheric river remains pointed at the
same location for multiple days, there will be some potential for
flooding. While confidence in the details is not great, Kodiak
Island (particularly the southern half) will be one place to
watch for heavy prolonged rainfall and the flooding potential.

CQ

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A short break in the weather this afternoon as the system which
brought wind, rain and snow to Southwest Alaska has moved north
over the Seward Peninsula. In it's wake, expect diminishing winds
and isolated snow showers mostly over the Kuskokwim River delta.
Over the Bering, more of the same is expected. Light (by Bering
standards) westerly to northwesterly winds and snow showers will
persist as weak features move overhead and cold air producing
steep lapse rates continues to move south out of the Gulf of
Anadyr.

A strong Pacific storm is expected to cross the Alaska Peninsula
Monday morning. This will bring strong southeasterly winds and a
mix of rain and snow. For Monday, Kipnuk and Toksook Bay could
see a couple inches of snow. Togiak and Dillingham could see
several inches of snow through Tuesday. For now, the most likely
areas for rain are interior Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley. Strong winds will increase temperatures above freezing for
much of the Mainland, so high temperatures above freezing can be
expected over the next 1-2 days. Moisture associated with this
system looks to be fairly high due to the high amplitude pattern
and southerly jet stream. For the most part the Alaska Peninsula
will be spared from heavy rain due to downsloping off of the
Aleutian Range, but Chignik could receive multiple inches of rain.
For now, the bulk of the moisture will pass between Port Heiden,
and Pilot Point over the western southwestern coast.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday night through
Saturday)...

The long term begins with a stagnant upper-level ridge / trough
pattern east to west across the state. A 560dm ridge anchored over
the St. Elias Mountains Wednesday drifts northeast over the Yukon
for Friday before weakening and elongating as it continues a slow
push to the southeast over British Columbia. The broad trough over
the Bering and Aleutians also remains in place through the end of
the week. The result is a general west to southwesterly flow in
the mid levels across the southern Bering and Aleutians shifting
to a southerly flow from the western Gulf and Alaska Peninsula
north along the west coast of Alaska. Various shortwaves embedded
in the flow, along with a strong upper-level jet, are resulting in
a seemingly continuous parade of surface lows and troughs moving
from the North Pacific toward the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak,
eventually moving farther north to the Bering Strait.

This storm track favors periods of heavy precipitation, in the
form of low elevation rain and mountain snow, from Kodiak Island
to the Alaska Peninsula and along the south-facing hills and
mountains of Southwest Alaska, due to upsloping. With multiple
surface lows tracking north across the Alaska Peninsula, strong
southeasterly gap winds and mountaintop winds are also likely,
with the strongest of the gap winds across the Alaska Peninsula
and through Kamishak Gap into the interior Bristol Bay region.
The southeasterly flow will also promote periods of showers
across the Kenai Mountains along with strong southeasterly gap
winds, mainly through Turnagain Arm and across the Matanuska
Valley.

The greatest uncertainty comes closer to the weekend, as models
try to weaken the ridge at differing times with the weaker, more
easterly positioned ridge and upstream trough becoming more
negatively tilted. This scenario would likely allow for storm
systems to move farther north into the Gulf of Alaska with
steadier precipitation moving toward the Southcentral coast.

-TM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...General VFR conditions and light winds persist through
Monday. There is the potential for a brief period of MVFR ceilings
and visibility due to snow shower activity late this evening into
early Monday morning as trough lifts north over Anchorage. LLWS is
expected to develop by late Monday morning as southeasterly winds
quickly increase across Turnagain Arm and the Anchorage Hillside
while light northerly surface winds remain over the terminal.

-TM

&&