Storm Warning 39, NWS Anchorage, AK

028 
FZAK52 PAFC 121252
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-130145-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 982 mb low immediately off the coast of Port Heiden quickly 
lifts across Cape Newenham into the YK Delta by this evening. A 
980 mb N Pacific low 240 nm SE of Unalaska moves to 70 nm NNW of 
Nelson Lagoon at 988 mb Tue morning, before tracking into the 
Kuskokwim Delta as a dissipating low Tue afternoon. A 1002 mb N 
Pacific low 260 nm W of Shemya on Mon moves 270 nm N of Shemya at 
997 mb through Wed morning.

$$

PKZ750-130145-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ751-130145-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 25
ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain with snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ752-130145-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ753-130145-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ754-130145-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ755-130145-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ756-130145-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Rain and snow. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ757-130145-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ758-130145-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ759-130145-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ770-130145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ772-130145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ771-130145-
Unalaska Bay-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ773-130145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ774-130145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ775-130145-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ776-130145-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ777-130145-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ778-130145-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ780-130145-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ781-130145-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ782-130145-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ783-130145-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ784-130145-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ785-130145-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 37 ft.

$$

PKZ786-130145-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ787-130145-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 32 ft.

$$

PKZ766-130145-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ760-130145-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt becoming SE. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ761-130145-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ762-130145-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Rain.
Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.

$$

PKZ763-130145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft becoming 1
foot in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.

$$

PKZ764-130145-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ765-130145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ767-130145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
352 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKST Sun Feb 11 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Tuesday night)...

A long-wave trough is centered over Alaska. A series of short-
wave troughs are tracking from the north-central Pacific
northeastward to southern Alaska then northward across the
remainder of the state. A weak short-wave crossing Southcentral
early this morning is producing numerous snow showers across
eastern Prince William Sound (Cordova/Valdez areas) up into the
southern Copper River Basin. Elsewhere, convection is isolated to
scattered at most. Pressure gradients continue to slacken in the
wake of the surface low that tracked across Southwest Alaska
yesterday and is now exiting northward up the west coast of
Alaska. This is allowing winds to diminish. As a result, surface
temperatures have fallen back down to freezing or below.

Another short-wave and gale force surface low south of the Alaska
Peninsula is tracking toward Kodiak Island. The air aloft is
quite cold, so expect snow to overspread the island early this
morning. Winds off the Gulf later this morning into the afternoon
could warm low level temperatures just enough to cause snow to mix
with or change to rain. In any case, precipitation will be light
and will quickly taper off during the afternoon hours. The upper
level short-wave and surface low will both weaken as they continue
north toward Southcentral this evening due to a rapidly building
ridge to the south (ahead of a much deeper Pacific low). The best
vertical motion will be shunted northeastward toward Prince
William Sound, bringing a round of mostly snow late this afternoon
through this evening. Snow is also likely near the dissipating
low across the southwestern Kenai Peninsula, including Homer.
Expect inland areas to see little or no precipitation as the
weakening short-wave exits northward tonight.

A digging trough over the north-central Pacific along with the
aforementioned deeper surface low will help amplify the upper
level flow tonight through Monday night. By Monday night a high
amplitude ridge will extend from offshore of the northwest CONUS
up to the eastern Alaska mainland. An upstream negatively tilted
trough will extend from the Bering Sea southeastward into the
northeast Pacific. In between will be an upper level jet and
atmospheric river pointed at the Alaska Peninsula and continuing
up across western Alaska. Model spread is less than in previous
days, though there are still some minor differences in surface low
track as well as exact placement of the jet and atmospheric
river. Based on the mean position, it looks highly favorable for
Kodiak Island to see a prolonged period of rain beginning Monday.
The area of steady precipitation will extend up to the Alaska
Peninsula and the west side of the Cook Inlet and possibly as far
north as the western Susitna Valley. Pressure gradients and
resulting southeast winds will ramp up across the Gulf and
Southcentral on Monday, with the typical enhanced winds through
mountain gaps. This will cause temperatures to rise back above
freezing in most places. The strengthening winds will also lead to
some upslope precipitation along the coast. If the atmospheric
river remains pointed at the same location for multiple days,
there will be a threat of flooding. While confidence in the
details is not great, Kodiak Island will be one place to watch for
heavy prolonged rainfall and the flooding potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A slight break in the weather today as the system that brought
wind, rain and snow to Southwest Alaska has moved north into the
Seward Peninsula. In it's wake, expect diminishing winds, broken
clouds and some isolated to scattered snow showers. Weather is a
little more active near the Alaska Peninsula where a rapidly
moving, compact low is moving from southwest to northeast south of
the Peninsula. This will bring a brief shot of snow to the
Peninsula and maybe as far north as the Iliamna area if it's able
to hold together. Over the Bering, more of the same is expected.
Light (by Bering standards) westerly to northwesterly winds and
snow showers will persist as weak features move overhead and cold
air producing steep lapse rates continues to move south out of the
Gulf of Anadyr.

A strong storm is expected to move north over the Alaska Peninsula
Monday morning. This will bring strong southeasterly winds and
snow followed quickly by rain to the east of the low center, and
northerly winds a snow to the west of the low center.
Unfortunately, model guidance still shows significant spread in
track, and due to the tight thermal gradient around the low(s),
snow totals are still uncertain. For now, the most likely areas
for rain are interior Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley.
Strong winds will increase temperatures above freezing for much of
the Mainland, so expect another 1-2 days of above freezing
temperatures. Moisture associated with this system looks to be
fairly high due to the high amplitude pattern and southerly jet
stream. For the most part the Alaska Peninsula will be spared
from heavy rain due to downsloping off of the Aleutian Range, but
Chignik could receive multiple inches of rain. For now, the bulk
of the moisture is focused between Chignik and Pilot Point. On the
other side of the Bay, Togiak and Dillingham could see a moderate
amount of precipitation as well.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

A large upper level trough persists over the Bering Sea for the
forecast period as an upper ridge continues to steadily build over
the northeastern Pacific into the mainland. Between these two
features, a robust North Pacific low continues its track northward
through the Bering Sea on Tuesday. Heavy precipitation and strong
winds persist across southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula
into Kodiak Island through Wednesday, with gusty gap winds in
Kamishak Bay through the Barren Islands continuing through
Wednesday. Upper ridging will continue to build in over
northwestern Alaska for mid-week as a broad area of lower pressure
continues over the Bering. Guidance then diverges in timing and
location of multiple shortwave features swinging northwestward
underneath the ridge as we approach Thursday, but heavy
precipitation and strong wind chances ostensibly return to the
Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula for Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures remain above normal for mainland Alaska throughout
the period.

-ME

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions anticipated thru Monday with potential dips
to MVFR as a dissipating low moves into Anchorage early Monday.
South winds continue to trend down with only occasional gusts
above 10 knots. Current south winds become northeasterly in the
afternoon before a return to southeasterly Monday morning.

-BL

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
138 PM AKST Sun Feb 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 AM     Snow             Rabbit Creek            61.07N 149.77W
02/11/2024  M1.1 inch        Anchorage          AK   Trained Spotter

            A trained spotter measured 1.1 inches of
            snow overnight.

&&