High Wind Warning 7, NWS Anchorage, AK

644 
WWAK71 PAFC 130351
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
651 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

AKZ102-131500-
/O.EXT.PAFC.HW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240214T0600Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
651 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 35 to 50 mph with gusts up to 80 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Anchorage Hillside.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property, 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult, especially 
  for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds have increased across the Anchorage
  Hillside. Multiple stations near 1000ft have reported wind gusts
  in excess of 70 mph as of 630pm Monday. Winds will continue to
  increase tonight (Monday Night) and remain strong through much
  of Tuesday. South and Southwest Anchorage will likely see 
  strong southeasterly winds as well. The strongest of these winds
  will be in south and west Anchorage where winds are expected to
  gust from 30 to 45 mph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind. Prepare for the possibility of
widespread power outages. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/afc

486 
WWAK71 PAFC 131335
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 AM AKST Tue Feb 13 2024

AKZ102-140300-
/O.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240214T0600Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
435 AM AKST Tue Feb 13 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 35 to 50 mph with gusts up to 75 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Anchorage Hillside.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property, 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult, especially 
  for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds at higher elevations diminished some
  overnight, but are expected to increase again early this morning
  with gusts to 75 mph possible. Winds will then slowly diminish
  this afternoon and through the night Tuesday night. South and 
  Southwest Anchorage will continue to see strong southeasterly 
  winds as well with gusts from 30 to 45 mph through the day 
  Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind. Prepare for the possibility of
widespread power outages. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/afc

752 
WWAK71 PAFC 140235
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
535 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2024

AKZ102-140345-
/O.CAN.PAFC.HW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240214T0600Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
535 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Wind speeds across the Anchorage Hillside have gradually
diminished, therefore the warning has been cancelled. Gusts
upwards of 50mph remain possible through the evening and
overnight before diminishing further on Wednesday.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
503 AM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

The general weather story for Southcentral Alaska through much of
this week will be above normal temperatures and periods of gusty
winds. This is due to stout southeasterly flow caused by a series
of surface lows that will move from the North Pacific and through
the far eastern Bering Sea through the period. This, in
combination with a large, warm upper level ridge which is
beginning to amplify over the Eastern Gulf of Alaska today and
should close off tomorrow afternoon as a fairly strong upper level
high centered near Yakutat. This upper level high will keep
temperatures mild-to-warm over Southcentral as well as push the
surface low track to the west.

Looking a little closer at the details, the first of these lows is
moving quickly this morning into Bristol Bay. This low actually
has a double center and is elongating as it moves northward. To
its south, a large plume of moisture can be seen moving northward
toward the Alaska Peninsula. This setup is causing two main
forecast questions. The first is how much of that plume of
moisture will make it over Kodiak Island. Kodiak will get wet
with the warm air and moisture, but successive model runs are
edging the deepest moisture farther to the west, so Kodiak City
may receive 1.5 to 2 inches of rainfall through tomorrow night,
while areas farther south and west on the Island could see closer
to 2 to 3.5 inches of rainfall during that timeframe. The farther
west push of the low should help taper off the rain Tuesday night.

The other big forecast question revolves around the wind in the
Anchorage area this afternoon through Tuesday morning. There has
been a High Wind Watch for potential gusts to 75 mph for the
higher elevations around Anchorage. It is a close call as to
whether winds will get to that High Wind threshold or fall a
little bit short. The elongating and weakening nature of the low
tracking west of Anchorage is not a very good high wind setup.
However, there will still be a fairly long period of strong
southeasterly winds and these winds will move over the Anchorage
Bowl late this afternoon and persist into Tuesday morning at lower
elevations. Higher elevations and southwest Anchorage are likely
to see those strong southeasterly winds persist longer and last
into Tuesday evening. For both areas, the winds are likely to peak
between midnight tonight and 6 AM Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A short break in the weather this afternoon as the system which
brought wind, rain and snow to Southwest Alaska has moved north
over the Seward Peninsula. In its wake, expect diminishing winds
and isolated snow showers mostly over the Kuskokwim River delta.
Over the Bering, more of the same is expected. Light (by Bering
standards) westerly to northwesterly winds and snow showers will
persist as weak features move overhead and cold air producing
steep lapse rates continues to move south out of the Gulf of
Anadyr.

A strong Pacific storm is expected to cross the Alaska Peninsula
Monday morning. This will bring strong southeasterly winds and a
mix of rain and snow. For Monday, Kipnuk and Toksook Bay could
see a couple inches of snow. Togiak and Dillingham could see
several inches of snow through Tuesday. For now, the most likely
areas for rain are interior Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley. Strong winds will increase temperatures above freezing for
much of the Mainland, so high temperatures above freezing can be
expected over the next 1-2 days. Moisture associated with this
system looks to be fairly high due to the high amplitude pattern
and southerly jet stream. For the most part the Alaska Peninsula
will be spared from heavy rain due to downsloping off of the
Aleutian Range, but Chignik could receive multiple inches of rain.
For now, the bulk of the moisture will pass between Port Heiden,
and Pilot Point over the western southwestern coast.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday night through
Saturday)...

The long term begins with a stagnant upper-level ridge / trough
pattern east to west across the state. A 560dm ridge anchored over
the St. Elias Mountains Wednesday drifts northeast over the Yukon
for Friday before weakening and elongating as it continues a slow
push to the southeast over British Columbia. The broad trough over
the Bering and Aleutians also remains in place through the end of
the week. The result is a general west to southwesterly flow in
the mid levels across the southern Bering and Aleutians shifting
to a southerly flow from the western Gulf and Alaska Peninsula
north along the west coast of Alaska. Various shortwaves embedded
in the flow, along with a strong upper-level jet, are resulting in
a seemingly continuous parade of surface lows and troughs moving
from the North Pacific toward the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak,
eventually moving farther north to the Bering Strait.

This storm track favors periods of heavy precipitation, in the
form of low elevation rain and mountain snow, from Kodiak Island
to the Alaska Peninsula and along the south-facing hills and
mountains of Southwest Alaska, due to upsloping. With multiple
surface lows tracking north across the Alaska Peninsula, strong
southeasterly gap winds and mountaintop winds are also likely,
with the strongest of the gap winds across the Alaska Peninsula
and through Kamishak Gap into the interior Bristol Bay region.
The southeasterly flow will also promote periods of showers
across the Kenai Mountains along with strong southeasterly gap
winds, mainly through Turnagain Arm and across the Matanuska
Valley.

The greatest uncertainty comes closer to the weekend, as models
try to weaken the ridge at differing times with the weaker, more
easterly positioned ridge and upstream trough becoming more
negatively tilted. This scenario would likely allow for storm
systems to move farther north into the Gulf of Alaska with
steadier precipitation moving toward the Southcentral coast.

-TM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions to prevail through Tuesday despite the
passage of a trough over Anchorage. LLWS is expected to develop
later this morning as southeasterly winds quickly increase across
Turnagain Arm and the Anchorage Hillside while light northerly
surface winds remain over the terminal. LLWS then diminishes this
afternoon, despite the continuance of stronger winds aloft, as
the vertical wind profile eventually becomes uniformly out of the
southeast direction.

-BL

&&