Storm Warning 202, NWS Anchorage, AK

363 
FZAK52 PAFC 190009
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-191330-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 958 mb low 40 nm west of Nikolski moves to 165 nm north of Adak
at 963 mb Thu afternoon. It forms part of a broad complex series of 
lows, as it moves to 125 nm southeast of Shemya at 980 mb Fri 
morning. This broad system moves northwestward, along the Aleutians 
and across the Alaska Peninsula through Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ750-191330-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ751-191330-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ752-191330-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 21 ft subsiding to 14 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ753-191330-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ754-191330-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ755-191330-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ756-191330-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Gusts to
55 kt out of bays and passes early. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft after
midnight.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ757-191330-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ758-191330-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ759-191330-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ770-191330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ772-191330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ771-191330-
Unalaska Bay-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ773-191330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ774-191330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ775-191330-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ776-191330-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ777-191330-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ778-191330-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ780-191330-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ781-191330-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ782-191330-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ783-191330-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ784-191330-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ785-191330-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ786-191330-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ787-191330-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ766-191330-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ760-191330-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ761-191330-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after 
midnight.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ762-191330-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ763-191330-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ764-191330-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ765-191330-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ767-191330-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
517 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A shortwave ridge is currently over the region, leading to partly
sunny skies, mostly calm winds and overall dry conditions. This
will persist for most areas through Thursday morning. The next
storm to impact the region can be seen on Satellite in the
Pacific, due south of Southcentral near 40N. This storm will
rapidly move north, reaching the southern Gulf of AK Thursday
morning before pivoting west into or near Kodiak Island. Model
guidance is in exceptionally poor agreement and has differences of
hundreds of miles in storm position by Friday afternoon. This is
due to a large baroclinic zone in the north Pacific right now,
with multiple lows developing along the front, in a region that is
poorly sampled. However, the aforementioned storm is likely to
bring moderate precipitation and strong winds to Kodiak Island
and the Gulf Coast/PWS areas Thursday and Friday as it pivots into
the eastern Bering and/or Bristol Bay. The onset of precipitation
may be snow for the Kenai Peninsula, but easterly winds will
quickly raise snow levels to 1000 to 1500 ft by Friday morning.
Little to no precipitation is expected inland, but cloud cover and
increasing winds through the mountain gaps will increase
temperatures.

The storm on Saturday is also poorly resolved, as differences in
weather models will compound with time. In comparison to guidance
yesterday, there as been a notable shift to the south in the storm
track, with the deterministic model envelop between Kodiak Island
and the southern Gulf, with ensemble multi-member clusters fairly
well grouped to the south of Kodiak. Strong winds and moderate to
heavy precipitation is still expected for Kodiak and the western
Prince William Sound, with chances for rain and/or freezing rain
making over the mountains and into the Cook Inlet areas at times.
Overall model run-to-run consistency is terrible, so pinpointing
weather impacts is difficult at this time, but the signals for
warm and wet weather are ample for this weekend.

-CJ

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday evening)...

A longwave trough is persisting over the Bering and Aleutians
this morning. The deep occluded low at the heart of the trough,
which is responsible for unsettled conditions throughout the
region, is also persisting. Impressively, an occluded front arcs
from out of the North Pacific, through the Alaska Peninsula, over
the Pribilof Islands and southward through the Central Aleutians
back into the low, which currently sits roughly 40 nm southwest of
Nikolski. It is this front which delineates a baroclinic zone
stretching from the eastern Bering down across the AKPEN into the
North Pacific. Satellite imagery reveals several smaller mesoscale
lows are lifting northward along the front, each with a region of
accompanying gales. A High Wind Warning will be allowed to expire
for the southern Alaska Peninsula shortly as winds are quickly
subsiding with the departure of mesolow departing the AKPEN. Cold
Bay saw peak gusts of around 62 knots (71 mph) during the early
morning hours, with a quick look at recent observations showing
gusts down to around 30 knots.

Model agreement has been substandard as of late with any
similarities amongst model solutions diverging beyond 24 hours.
This has been a headache in the forecast process, with low
certainty in the small scale details, specifically with the
development and movement of each mesolow along the front. Instead,
a broad brush approach has been leaned heavily upon, and this
approach was also used for the morning forecast package.
Essentially, gusty conditions, as well as areas of widespread
showers, will continue along the occluded front. Areas of
southeasterly gales will likely accompany each passing mesolow
from the AKPEN and Eastern Aleutians up into Saint Matthew Island
through tonight.

The occluded low near Nikolski finally lifts northwestward
Thursday morning as it weakens and surface pressure rises to
around 970 mb, which should see winds finally begin to relax over
the eastern Bering. A new trough is forecast to pivot from the
Gulf of Alaska into the Alaska Peninsula on Thursday with flow
over the Greater Bristol Bay region becoming northeasterly. The
biggest concern with the new wind direction will be for elevated
winds, including gales, to exit the Shelikof Strait as far south
as Sutwik Island. A bigger low lifts out of the North Pacific and
into the Alaska Peninsula on Friday, with potential for another
round of elevated winds, though a more easterly wind direction
should preclude a threat of any high winds.

Finally, we are monitoring the potential for coastal flooding
along the Kuskokwim Delta coast. Persistent onshore winds could
see elevated water levels coincide with high tide. There is a high
amount of uncertainty if winds will be strong enough to cause any
impacts.

BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

An unsettled weather pattern continues as a North Pacific low
moves into the southeast Gulf late Thursday, crossing the Gulf to
east of Kodiak Island by Saturday morning. This will be followed
by a shortwave on Saturday afternoon, and a second low entering
the Gulf by Sunday afternoon.

Rain will be enhanced by terrain at low elevations and mountain
snows possible for coastal regions, while downsloping should
reduce the amount of precipitation that reaches inland locations.
This pattern is expected to persist through the weekend, with the
strongest winds coming from the east, affecting areas which
include the Barren Islands, Kodiak Island, and Eastern Kenai
Peninsula.

-Baker

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.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

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