Storm Warning 180, NWS Anchorage, AK

587 
FZAK62 PAFC 181302
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-190215-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 949 mb low at 52N 169W moves to 54N 171W at 959 mb by Wed 
afternoon. It forms a broad, complex low as it moves to 54N 174E at 
975 mb by Fri morning. Several compact lows move northwestward across
the Alaska Peninsula from Wed afternoon through Fri morning.

$$

PKZ411-190215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-190215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. 
Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ413-190215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-190215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
402 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

369 
FZAK62 PAFC 190009
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-191430-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 958 mb low at 53N 170W moves to 55N 175W at 963 mb Thu afternoon. 
It forms part of a broad complex series of lows, as it moves to 52N 
178E at 980 mb Fri morning. This broad system moves northwestward, 
along the Aleutians and across the Alaska Peninsula through Fri 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-191430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain showers and 
snow showers.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ412-191430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-191430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-191430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
309 PM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

059 
FZAK62 PAFC 191252
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 AM AKST Thu Dec 19 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-200230-
352 AM AKST Thu Dec 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 963 mb low at 54N 173W forms part of a broad complex of lows as
it moves to 55N 177W by Thu afternoon. The dominant low in this
complex weakens to 980 mb as it lingers near 53N 177E through Sat
morning. A 975 mb Gulf low moves to 57N 161W by Fri morning. It
continues to 57N 173W at 976 mb by Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-200230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
352 AM AKST Thu Dec 19 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.

$$

PKZ412-200230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
352 AM AKST Thu Dec 19 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-200230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
352 AM AKST Thu Dec 19 2024

.TODAY...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-200230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
352 AM AKST Thu Dec 19 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 AM AKST Tue Dec 17 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A narrow ridge is in place from British Columbia northwest to the
Y-K Delta while a broad trough with multiple embedded shortwaves
exists to the south and west. The combination of these features
are keeping most areas dry with slightly above normal
temperatures. Meanwhile the Seward area and Kodiak Island are
getting light upslope precipitation. Radar indicates most of the
precipitation is in the Seward area this morning, but it may move
north into Whittier/Portage this afternoon as the ridge moves
slightly to the north. The light precipitation will taper off
through Wednesday morning as a low over the southern Panhandle
cuts off moisture and another shortwave ridge builds in over the
Gulf. This will lead to the sunniest of the days for much of the
region, allowing temperatures to drop a few degrees.

Looking ahead into Thursday and Friday, a series of increasingly
strong and wet systems will begin to chip away at the ridge over
the mainland. The system on Thursday is expected to move south of
or over the southern edge of Kodiak Island, bringing rain to
Kodiak and the Gulf/Sound areas along with upper elevation snow.
The exact track of the low is poorly resolved, but the net effect
for the precipitation forecast is the same. The wind forecast on
the other hand, particularly for marine areas, remains poorly
resolved. Most of the forecast guidance has this system
dissipating or becoming an inverted trough as it enters Bristol
Bay, leaving behind upslope precipitation for the eastern Kenai
Peninsula and Kodiak Island. Precipitation from this system may be
heavy at times. For Friday, a very strong and wet system is
expected to move into the Gulf. This system may have widespread
wind and heavy precipitation (mostly rain) for Southcentral by
Saturday. Stay tuned for updates.

-CJ

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The majority of Southwest Alaska and the Aleutians are under broad
low pressure with multiple systems spreading from the western
Bering Sea to the North Pacific. The combination of an upper low
currently centered just south of the eastern Aleutians and a
Southcentral ridge nudging in is promoting predominantly
southeasterly flow over the region. Widespread gale-force winds
and shower activity are prevalent across the eastern Bering and
Alaska Peninsula (AKPen). A series of compact surface lows will be
taking turns swinging north across the Aleutians/AKPen into the
Bering Sea over the next couple days. These will be the main
weather drivers as they track generally north and west near the
Pribilof Islands and out to the western Bering. Southeasterly flow
will continue to bring light to moderate rain to the south-facing
slopes of the Aleutian Mountains.

The first low will pass over the Shumigan Islands this morning,
bringing a local enhancement of wind and precipitation. A wave
with some upper level support will push the next round of weather
to the southern AKPen/eastern Aleutians early Wednesday morning,
where gusts over 50 mph are possible for higher elevations and
areas around Cold Bay.

By Thursday morning, a stronger low from the North Pacific looks
to swing north into the western Gulf, bringing the potential for
sustained storm force, northeasterly winds out of Shelikof Strait
with gales spreading to around Chirikof Island. Precipitation in
the models appear to rain out a lot of moisture before pushing
over the Aleutian Mountains into Southwest Alaska, but it is
looking likely that some of that moisture could spill into
Bristol Bay region.

Rux/TK

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

An unsettled weather pattern continues as a large trough,
situated between the Aleutian Islands and the Gulf of Alaska,
draws-in multiple low pressure systems from the North Pacific
across the Gulf of Alaska. Model consensus has improved on a
compact low crossing the southern edge of the Western Gulf and
passing south of Kodiak Island Friday afternoon. This will be
followed by a shortwave on Saturday afternoon, and a second low
entering the Gulf Sunday afternoon.

Rain will be enhanced by terrain at low elevations and mountain
snows possible for coastal regions, while downsloping should
reduce the amount of precipitation that reaches inland locations.
This pattern is expected to persist through the weekend, with the
strongest winds coming from the east, affecting areas which
include the Barren Islands, Kodiak Island, and Eastern Kenai
Peninsula.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&