Storm Warning 200, NWS Anchorage, AK

287 
FZAK51 PAFC 181251
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-190200-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front in the Western Gulf strengthens and expands into the 
northern Gulf as a 977 mb North Pacific low moves to 180 nm
southeast of Kodiak City. The low exits towards Southwest Alaska 
at 980 mb by Fri morning.

$$

PKZ710-190200-
Cape Suckling to Gravel Point out to 15 NM-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ711-190200-
Gravel Point to Cape Cleare out to 15 NM-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ712-190200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare from 15 to 75 NM-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ715-190200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point out to 15 NM-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ716-190200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point from 15 to 75 NM-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ714-190200-
Resurrection Bay-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ724-190200-
Northwest Prince William Sound-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ725-190200-
Central and Eastern Prince William Sound-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ726-190200-
Southwest Prince William Sound-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after
midnight.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ720-190200-
Port of Valdez-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ721-190200-
Valdez Narrows-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ722-190200-
Valdez Arm-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ723-190200-
Passage Canal-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ730-190200-
West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ731-190200-
Barren Islands East-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ733-190200-
Gore Point to Marmot Island from 15 to 80 NM-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ732-190200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak out to 15 NM-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20
ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ734-190200-
Marmot Island To Sitkinak from 15 to 85 NM-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20
ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ736-190200-
Chiniak Bay-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ737-190200-
Marmot Bay-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16
ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ738-190200-
Shelikof Strait-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ742-190200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ740-190200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ741-190200-
Kachemak Bay-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 18 2024

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 AM AKST Tue Dec 17 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A narrow ridge is in place from British Columbia northwest to the
Y-K Delta while a broad trough with multiple embedded shortwaves
exists to the south and west. The combination of these features
are keeping most areas dry with slightly above normal
temperatures. Meanwhile the Seward area and Kodiak Island are
getting light upslope precipitation. Radar indicates most of the
precipitation is in the Seward area this morning, but it may move
north into Whittier/Portage this afternoon as the ridge moves
slightly to the north. The light precipitation will taper off
through Wednesday morning as a low over the southern Panhandle
cuts off moisture and another shortwave ridge builds in over the
Gulf. This will lead to the sunniest of the days for much of the
region, allowing temperatures to drop a few degrees.

Looking ahead into Thursday and Friday, a series of increasingly
strong and wet systems will begin to chip away at the ridge over
the mainland. The system on Thursday is expected to move south of
or over the southern edge of Kodiak Island, bringing rain to
Kodiak and the Gulf/Sound areas along with upper elevation snow.
The exact track of the low is poorly resolved, but the net effect
for the precipitation forecast is the same. The wind forecast on
the other hand, particularly for marine areas, remains poorly
resolved. Most of the forecast guidance has this system
dissipating or becoming an inverted trough as it enters Bristol
Bay, leaving behind upslope precipitation for the eastern Kenai
Peninsula and Kodiak Island. Precipitation from this system may be
heavy at times. For Friday, a very strong and wet system is
expected to move into the Gulf. This system may have widespread
wind and heavy precipitation (mostly rain) for Southcentral by
Saturday. Stay tuned for updates.

-CJ

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The majority of Southwest Alaska and the Aleutians are under broad
low pressure with multiple systems spreading from the western
Bering Sea to the North Pacific. The combination of an upper low
currently centered just south of the eastern Aleutians and a
Southcentral ridge nudging in is promoting predominantly
southeasterly flow over the region. Widespread gale-force winds
and shower activity are prevalent across the eastern Bering and
Alaska Peninsula (AKPen). A series of compact surface lows will be
taking turns swinging north across the Aleutians/AKPen into the
Bering Sea over the next couple days. These will be the main
weather drivers as they track generally north and west near the
Pribilof Islands and out to the western Bering. Southeasterly flow
will continue to bring light to moderate rain to the south-facing
slopes of the Aleutian Mountains.

The first low will pass over the Shumigan Islands this morning,
bringing a local enhancement of wind and precipitation. A wave
with some upper level support will push the next round of weather
to the southern AKPen/eastern Aleutians early Wednesday morning,
where gusts over 50 mph are possible for higher elevations and
areas around Cold Bay.

By Thursday morning, a stronger low from the North Pacific looks
to swing north into the western Gulf, bringing the potential for
sustained storm force, northeasterly winds out of Shelikof Strait
with gales spreading to around Chirikof Island. Precipitation in
the models appear to rain out a lot of moisture before pushing
over the Aleutian Mountains into Southwest Alaska, but it is
looking likely that some of that moisture could spill into
Bristol Bay region.

Rux/TK

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

An unsettled weather pattern continues as a large trough,
situated between the Aleutian Islands and the Gulf of Alaska,
draws-in multiple low pressure systems from the North Pacific
across the Gulf of Alaska. Model consensus has improved on a
compact low crossing the southern edge of the Western Gulf and
passing south of Kodiak Island Friday afternoon. This will be
followed by a shortwave on Saturday afternoon, and a second low
entering the Gulf Sunday afternoon.

Rain will be enhanced by terrain at low elevations and mountain
snows possible for coastal regions, while downsloping should
reduce the amount of precipitation that reaches inland locations.
This pattern is expected to persist through the weekend, with the
strongest winds coming from the east, affecting areas which
include the Barren Islands, Kodiak Island, and Eastern Kenai
Peninsula.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&