Hurricane Force Wind Warning 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

950 
FZAK52 PAFC 070016
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-071300-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 947 mb low over the Pribilof Islands this afternoon will move 25 
nm E of St. Matthew Island Sun afternoon at 955 mb. It will then move
into the Gulf of Anadyr at 975 mb Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ750-071300-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ751-071300-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ752-071300-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ753-071300-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ754-071300-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 29 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ755-071300-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 31 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ756-071300-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ757-071300-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ758-071300-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 55 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ759-071300-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 55 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ770-071300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ772-071300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 28 ft. Widespread rain showers and
snow.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ771-071300-
Unalaska Bay-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ773-071300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 33 ft subsiding to 27 ft after
midnight. Rain with snow.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ774-071300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 35 ft. Rain with snow.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft subsiding to 20 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ775-071300-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 55 kt. Seas 27 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ776-071300-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 55 kt. Seas 28 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ777-071300-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
30 ft subsiding to 24 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ778-071300-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
33 ft subsiding to 27 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ780-071300-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ781-071300-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 55 kt. Seas 24 ft. Snow.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ782-071300-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft. Snow.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ783-071300-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
25 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ784-071300-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ785-071300-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ786-071300-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ787-071300-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ766-071300-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Snow.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ760-071300-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ761-071300-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ762-071300-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas in ice
free waters 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ763-071300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ764-071300-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ765-071300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Widespread snow and rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 kt.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 40 kt.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ767-071300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
316 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 35 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 16 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
449 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

Ongoing rain and snowfall across coastal Southcentral will
continue overnight tonight. Skies across interior Southcentral
will gradually clear overnight tonight, allowing for some colder
morning temperatures by Saturday. Generally, the period between
this evening and Saturday morning will be a reprieve before the
onset of the next upcoming frontal system entering Southcentral
later this weekend.

As mentioned, the next system to roll into our area will be a
strong frontal boundary swinging in originating from a low
pressure system in the Southern Bering. The front, pushing
northward, will enter the Southwestern Gulf of Alaska by Saturday
morning, bringing a wave of snow and rain to Kodiak Island by 6am.
Some showers will be generated ahead of the front and should
restart some of the snow/rain showers in Western Prince William
Sound around the same time. The lagging core of the frontal
boundary will shift northward throughout the day Saturday,
reaching Kodiak and ramping up rain and snowfall rates by late
Saturday night. Reaching the Southern Kenai Peninsula by early
Sunday morning, Homer and Seldovia will likely see an onset of a
rain/snow mix but will likely see a predominance of rain
throughout the day Sunday due to the warmer temperatures of
Kachemak Bay. Persistent snowfall is expected to continue into
Sunday where the axis of moisture aligns with the flow into
Western Prince William Sound, increasing snowfall potential in
that area. The axis of strong moisture transport will begin to
move over Eastern Kenai Peninsula by 6am Sunday, beginning the
period of moderate-to-heavy snowfall potential. Portions of the
Seward highway between Seward and Turnagain Pass will see
approximately 16 inches along the highway corridor, with higher
accumulations for more inland areas such as near Summit Lake.
Whittier will similarly see a prolonged period of cold
precipitation but due to the temperatures sitting at or just above
freezing, it is difficult to determine how much snow versus rain
will be received at the surface in the city. It is possible for
higher elevations of Eastern Kenai to see up to 3 feet of new
snowfall from Sunday morning to Monday morning. The period of
strongest winds are currently expected to arrive, and depart prior
to the arrival of heavy snowfall, limiting but not eliminating
the potential for blowing snow reducing visibility along roadways
Sunday.

By Sunday afternoon, there is the potential for some of the
snowfall to break through Turnagain Arm and push into the
Anchorage area. This feature is currently supported by the high
resolution models, but not picked up by the synoptic models, so
confidence is low. However, a wave a snowfall appears to arrive
Sunday afternoon increasing by Sunday evening. Period of strongest
snowfall would be overnight Sunday into very early Monday
morning. Snowfall may continue but diminish throughout Monday
morning, ending late Monday morning. Snowfall from this minor push
into Anchorage Monday may produce up to 1 to 3 inches of new
snow, with higher amounts on the hillside. Confidence regarding
this impact to Anchorage is still low so stay tuned, however
confidence regarding the strong snowfall event in Eastern Kenai
Sunday into Monday is high.

-CL

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1
through 3/Tonight through Monday)...

Key Points:

* A large and powerful storm will cross the Aleutians into the
  Bering Sea tonight through Saturday, bringing widespread severe
  weather to the region through the weekend.

* Several Warnings have been issued with this afternoon's forecast
  updates. Check the latest warnings and forecasts for your local
  area at weather.gov/afc.

Overall, the forecast remains on track for this storm system.
As is typical with these deep lows, there has been some shift in
the track and depth of the low. The root cause seems to be a
complex series of short-waves embedded within the upper trough,
which leads to development of multiple centers and transfer of
energy from one center to another as the low is crossing the
central Aleutians early Saturday morning. At the surface, the low
initially takes the track expected yesterday, passing just east of
Atka. However, in response to the shift in upper low centers, a
new surface low forms to the east and passes just west of
Nikolski. As the low continues north into the southern Bering, it
now looks like the core of strongest winds will affect the Eastern
Aleutians. Cold air advection and associated increase in
instability will combine with pressure rises behind the low to
accelerate winds moving through the mountains of the Eastern
Aleutians. The initial south to southwest wind direction is also
favorable for some of the strongest winds to funnel through
Captain's Bay and Unalaska Bay, affecting the main population
center of the zone. Meanwhile, the shift in low track means high
winds look a little less favorable for Atka and Adak, with the
core of strongest winds staying to the south and east. However,
they are still in the vicinity of the bent-back occlusion, and
Adak in particular will see some of the colder and more unstable
air on the back side of the system. Lastly, the eastward shift now
brings some of the stronger winds eastward to the southern tip of
the Alaska Peninsula, where winds easily accelerate through the
many bays and passes. Thus, have issued a High Wind Warning for
Cold Bay west to False Pass.

Meanwhile, the frontal system looks a bit stronger as it reaches
Southwest Alaska, so have upped winds and precipitation amounts
across the region Saturday through Saturday night. There is high
confidence in blizzard conditions along the Kuskokwim Delta coast
tomorrow. Enough warm air will move in to cause temperatures to
rise above freezing with frontal passage, but the bulk of snow
will fall prior to any warm-up with temperatures in the upper 20s.
The occluding front will be slow to progress inland and weaken
across Southwest Alaska Saturday night. Bristol Bay will quickly
warm and see mostly rain. However, expect all snow in the
Kuskokwim Valley. The precipitation forecast is always a bit
tricky in there when there is lots of low level wind (and
upslope/downslope affects). It does look like there will be a
narrow band of moderate snow ahead of the front that sits
somewhere between Aniak and Sleetmute Saturday afternoon through
Saturday night. Would like to see more model consistency with
progression of front, but there is a chance a Winter Weather
Advisory will need to be issued for snow accumulation of 6 or
more inches in a small portion of the Kuskokwim Valley.

Gusty winds and showers will persist region-wide through Sunday,
with improving conditions as the low weakens and exits to the far
northern Bering Sea Sunday night through Monday. Another strong
Pacific storm looks like it will arrive along the Aleutians Monday
night. This storm will take a more westerly track, which could
confine the greatest impacts to the Aleutians and central Bering
Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The big weather-feature that will drive the systems in the long
term period will be an amplifying upper level ridge over mainland
Alaska. This ridge will begin to amplify over Southwest mainland
Alaska Tuesday and then move over Southcentral and the Interior
for Thursday and Friday. What this will entail is keeping the
storm track on the Bering Sea region for next week. There looks to
be another major low that moves through the central Bering Sea
Tuesday and Wednesday, but this strong upper level ridge will keep
that low farther to the west than the ones moving through the are
this week. This low will still bring strong winds the the Bering
Sea and the Kuskokwim Delta coast for Tuesday and Wednesday. The
warm upper level ridge and low being ushered by it into the
Chukchi Sea will bring above-normal temperatures for Southwest
Alaska for much of next week. Southcentral also looks to have
above-normal temperatures, however there will also be less cloud
cover for Southcentral which will allow for better radiational
cooling overnight. Since the ridge has such a warm core, it will
mitigate the night time temperatures and keep them from being as
cold as they were last week when skies cleared out.

Especially toward the end of next week there is increased
uncertainty to the details of what is likely to be another strong
low in the Bering Sea and impacting Southwest mainland Alaska.
What does look likely is that this system will remain over the
Bering Sea due to the strength and placement of the upper level
ridge over Southcentral. The Southwest mainland will see some
wind and a mix of both rain and snow depending on how the track
and strength of the low develops. The main thing that will need
to be watched is to see if this ridge does amplify to be as
strong as currently projected and if it can maintain its place
over Southcentral and the Interior of the state for most of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northeast winds less than 10 kts
will generally persist. Shower activity continues to be present
across the Cook Inlet, but remains just out of Anchorage. This
should remain the case this evening, but can't rule out a light
snow shower across the area. Precip activity across the area will
diminish later this evening/overnight.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1022 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

AKZ161-061400-
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek,
and Pilot Point
1022 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN...

A powerful storm system moving into the Bering Sea will bring
another round of very strong winds to coastal and interior Bristol
Bay this weekend. Southeasterly winds will quickly increase
Saturday morning and remain strong through Sunday morning before
diminishing Sunday afternoon. For the Bristol Bay coast, expect
sustained winds of 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 55 mph possible.
For interior Bristol Bay, expect sustained winds of 35 to 50 mph
with gusts up to 65 mph possible. The winds are then expected to
diminish by Sunday evening as the low lifts into the Bering
Strait.

A brief period of snow is likely Saturday morning. However,
temperatures will quickly warm into the mid to upper 30s as the
winds increase, changing any snow over to rain.

AKZ195-061400-
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
1022 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN...

A powerful storm system moving into the Bering Sea will bring
another round of very strong winds to the Pribilof Islands this
weekend. Easterly winds will quickly increase late Friday night
becoming southeasterly through Sunday morning. Expect sustained
winds of 35 to 50 mph with gusts up to 65 mph possible. There may
be a brief lull in the strong winds late Saturday evening through
early Sunday morning before winds shift to the southwest and
increase late Sunday morning through Monday morning. Expect
sustained winds of 35 to 50 mph with gusts to 65 mph during this
second round of strong winds. The winds are then expected to
diminish through Monday evening as the low lifts into the Bering
Strait.

A brief period of snow is likely late tonight. However,
temperatures will quickly warm into the mid to upper 30s as the
winds increase, changing any snow over to rain.