Gale Warning 48, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jan 5, 2024, 3:00 PM AKST (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Jan 6, 2024, 3:45 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

189 
FZAK51 PAFC 060000
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-061245-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

Weak low pressure over the western Gulf will dissipate Fri night.
A strong front will enter the western Gulf Sat morning and move to
the north Gulf coast Sun. 

$$

PKZ710-061245-
Cape Suckling to Gravel Point out to 15 NM-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ711-061245-
Gravel Point to Cape Cleare out to 15 NM-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ712-061245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare from 15 to 75 NM-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ715-061245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point out to 15 NM-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft after
midnight. Rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ716-061245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point from 15 to 75 NM-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ714-061245-
Resurrection Bay-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ724-061245-
Northwest Prince William Sound-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers with rain showers.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ725-061245-
Central and Eastern Prince William Sound-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Snow showers and 
rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ726-061245-
Southwest Prince William Sound-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ720-061245-
Port of Valdez-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ721-061245-
Valdez Narrows-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ722-061245-
Valdez Arm-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ723-061245-
Passage Canal-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow 
showers and rain showers.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ730-061245-
West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers 
and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ731-061245-
Barren Islands East-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ733-061245-
Gore Point to Marmot Island from 15 to 80 NM-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ732-061245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak out to 15 NM-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. 
N of Dangerous Cape, SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ734-061245-
Marmot Island To Sitkinak from 15 to 85 NM-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ736-061245-
Chiniak Bay-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ737-061245-
Marmot Bay-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ738-061245-
Shelikof Strait-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain with snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ742-061245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ740-061245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ741-061245-
Kachemak Bay-
300 PM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 5, 5:40 AM AKST, 9 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
540 AM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

A weak surface trough and upper level wave continue to lift north
over the coastal mountains this morning. These features are
producing snow showers from the eastern Kenai Peninsula east to
Cordova. Rain is mixing in at times at lower elevations, around
Whittier and Cordova. While shower activity is expected to
diminish through the day as the trough and upper level wave both
weaken, an additional 3 to 6 inches of snow is possible from
Turnagain Pass to Moose Pass with 1 to 2 inches possible for
lower elevations such as Seward. A moderately strong southeasterly
flow will continue across the coast mountains this morning,
keeping most of the shower activity confined to the coast.
However, a few showers may develop across Cook Inlet, the
Anchorage Bowl, and the Mat-Su Valleys later today as the flow
weakens. A few isolated showers will remain over the coastal
mountains into Saturday; however, a transient ridge moving
overhead will limit the extent and amount of precipitation with
any showers.

The break will not be long for Kodiak nor the Southcentral
Coastline as a new frontal boundary will extend from the low in
the southern Bering across into the Gulf of Alaska. This front
will sweep northward similarly to the last boundary, reaching
Kodiak Island first by late Saturday morning. For Kodiak City,
precipitation will likely begin as rain, with a transition
possible to a rain/snow mix by Saturday night. For mainland
Southcentral, an initial push of light snowfall will begin across
the southern and eastern sides of the Kenai Peninsula by late
Saturday morning. On the western side of Kenai Peninsula, Homer
and Seldovia will see a similar onset time of snowfall, with
higher accumulation rates expected on the southern side of
Kachemak Bay. Persistent snowfall is expected to continue into
Sunday where the axis of moisture aligns with the flow into
Western Prince William Sound, increasing snowfall potential in
that area. This system does seem to have the potential to linger
significant snow showers across this area into the beginning of
next week. Just the period from Saturday afternoon to Sunday
evening, the higher elevations along western Prince William Sound
may see one to two feet of new snowfall. Further down during this
period, Seward and Whitter may see an additional 1-4 inches of
accumulation with 2-6 inches possible along the Turnagain Pass
corridor. It is currently unclear how much snow makes it through
the downslope hole and enters Anchorage. As the axis aligns with
Turnagain Arm by early Sunday afternoon, this seems like the best
time for some light Anchorage snowfall, however confidence is
currently not high.

-CL/TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Today through Sunday)...

The forecast remains largely on track. The biggest update with the
overnight package has been to shift the timing and track of a
powerful storm system that will impact Southwest Alaska/Bering
Sea/Aleutian Islands from tonight through Sunday. A High Wind
Watch remains in effect for the Eastern and Central Aleutians,
while a Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for the Kuskokwim
Delta coast and Nunivak Island. While some uncertainties remain,
forecast confidence is steadily increasing, and it's likely that a
decision on whether to upgrade these watches will be made with
the afternoon package.

Here's a quick recap of the synoptics, drawn mostly from the
previous forecast discussion: A 975 mb vertically stacked low near
Bristol Bay will dissipate as it heads inland through today.
Shortwaves associated with this low will bring widespread showers
(mostly snow), leading to light accumulations before precipitation
tapers off Friday night. There will be a brief break in winds and
precipitation behind the low. However, attention will quickly
shift to a rapidly deepening low over the North Pacific. The set-
up looks quite impressive, with interaction of the Polar and
Subtropical jets leading to initial intensification of a low
crossing the North Pacific; a low position between the left exit
region and right entrance region of two jet streaks; and the low
bottoming out in the 940s as it crosses the central Aleutians
tonight/early Saturday. This last point is a key contrast with the
previous system, which bottomed out over the North Pacific and
tracked into the Bering Sea as a fully occluded, vertically
stacked, weakening low. Thus, generally expect stronger winds with
this next storm system and much warmer air to stream northward
out ahead of it. The storm will lift northward across the Bering
Sea and very slowly weaken Saturday through Sunday night. It will
be much like the wake of the current storm, with showers and gusty
winds lingering across the region, but diminishing with time.

- KC/SEB

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

Most of the active weather for the long term forecast period will
take place along the western portion of the state. A longwave
Bering low persists through the early portion of the week,
allowing for precipitation to occur along the frontal boundary as
it extends into central Alaska. Southcentral and western Alaska
will have near or just below freezing temperatures early week, so
mixed precipitation is possible. Some gale-force winds will be
possible as the system moves northward. The trough associated with
the Bering low will generate a couple of shortwave lows that have
the potential of providing precipitation to southcentral Alaska
in the form of snow and a rain/snow mix.

Late Tuesday into Wednesday, a building ridge will begin to
settle into central Alaska, as the main Bering low is forced
northward, providing calmer weather for that portion of the state.
There is some inconsistency with the placement of the ridge, but
most of central Alaska is expected to be covered through the end
of the forecast period. There is model agreement that a new low
pressure system will deepen as it makes its way across the western
Aleutian Islands into the Bering Tuesday- Wednesday, but the
track of the storm relative to the western Alaska coast will be
dependent on the strength of the central Alaska ridge. Strong
gale-force winds with storm-force gusts are possible as the system
traverses the Aleutian chain.

BS

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northeast winds less than 10 kts
will generally persist. Southeast winds aloft will still have some
chance to produce borderline LLWS until they diminish by early
this afternoon. However, winds above the surface have thus far
remained lower than most model projections have indicated, and
have not been strong enough to produce a shear layer at/below 2000
ft. A few light snow showers could make it into the terminal
later this afternoon and evening as drying southeasterly flow
begins to weaken. This could lead to some brief reductions to MVFR
conditions later this afternoon and evening with passing showers.

-AS

&&

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2024Every gale warning in 2024

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.