Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Tulsa, OK

691 
WWUS54 KTSA 022150
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
350 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

OKC121-022215-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-230302T2215Z/
Pittsburg OK-
350 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN PITTSBURG COUNTY...

At 350 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 3 miles northeast of
Haywood, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mcalester...                      Krebs...
Savanna...                        Ashland...
Mcalester Regional Airport...     Haywood...
Scipio...                         Arpelar...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for southeastern
Oklahoma.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Tulsa.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 9609 3516 9588 3518 9587 3504 9556
      3478 9590 3472 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 226DEG 43KT 3491 9590 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

893 
WWUS54 KTSA 022203
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
403 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

OKC121-022215-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-230302T2215Z/
Pittsburg OK-
403 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN PITTSBURG COUNTY...

At 403 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of
Mcalester, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mcalester...                      Krebs...
Haywood...                        Scipio...
Arpelar...                        

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for southeastern
Oklahoma.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Tulsa.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 9609 3516 9588 3518 9587 3504 9556
      3491 9573 3478 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 220DEG 44KT 3504 9577 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
148 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 148 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

Elevated thunderstorms have already exited northwest Arkansas early
this afternoon and the storms across northeast Oklahoma will exit
to the north-northeast shortly. A few of these storms became severe,
producing up to golfball size hail.

Now our attention turns to the southern portion of the forecast
area and the potential for severe storms later this afternoon
and evening. This activity is expected to be mostly surface based
and have the potential for all modes of severe weather. A warm front
stretches across southeast Oklahoma, from just north of KMLC down into
southwest Arkansas with a cold front impinging on this area from the
west. Temperatures have surged into the 70s across far southeast Oklahoma
with dew points in the low to mid 60s. Surface based CAPE values are already
around 2000 J/KG early this afternoon. There is also adequate deep layer
shear across the region to support severe storms. As the cap weakens, activity
is expected to ramp up later afternoon across far southeast Oklahoma
in the vicinity of the surface boundaries. As mentioned before, all modes of
severe weather will be possible across this area with tornadoes, damaging winds
and large hail all possible. There will be a lesser threat of severe weather
of severe weather across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas to the
north of the warm front. As the potential for severe storms winds down this
evening, the potential for heavy rain and flooding will increase as a mid-level
low currently over the Southwest sweeps across the area. The current Flash Flood
Watch looks good and will remain in place through noon on Friday. 2 to 4 inches
of rain still looks likely across the watch area with upwards of 6 inches of rain
in a few locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 148 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

Showers will linger across portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas on
Friday morning before the aforementioned mid-low exits the area to the northeast.
There still could be some light snow mixed in with the rain in the higher terrain
of northwest Arkansas Friday morning. However, removed from the forecast at this
time.

Quiet weather is expected through the weekend with a weak cold front fizzling out
across the area on Saturday. A warming trend is expected through Monday with the
next cold front moving through Monday afternoon/evening before stalling out across
north Texas on Tuesday. The chances of showers increase north of the stalled boundary
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

Poor aviating conditions are expected through the period, with
multiple opportunities for thunderstorm impacts, in addition to
prolonged reduced visibilities and ceilings in rain. MLC/FSM
likely to have the most thunderstorm impact from mid to late
afternoon into the evening, including potential for strong to
severe wind gusts. IFR visibilities and ceilings will prevail for
several hours tonight into tomorrow morning following the
thunderstorms. Some improvement in the visibilities can be
expected mid to late morning tomorrow at the E OK terminals as the
rain moves out, but MVFR ceilings will persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  60  38  64 /  90  90   0   0
FSM   47  57  38  66 / 100 100   0   0
MLC   42  59  40  67 / 100  80   0   0
BVO   37  60  33  63 /  90  80   0   0
FYV   41  53  36  65 / 100  90   0   0
BYV   42  49  36  62 / 100  90   0   0
MKO   42  56  38  63 / 100  90   0   0
MIO   40  53  36  61 / 100  90   0   0
F10   41  58  38  64 / 100  90   0   0
HHW   44  58  39  66 /  90  50   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ049-053-063-068>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Friday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1227 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1227 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Along and South of Interstate 40.
    ONSET...Mid Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

 	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma, Mid Afternoon and
                            Evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Mid Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Southeast Of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Mid Afternoon.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Evening.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread heavy rainfall, with an elevated threat of flash
flooding, will impact much of northwest Arkansas and eastern
Oklahoma to the southeast of Interstate 44 through tonight. Much
of that portion of the area will see from 2 to 4 inches of rain,
with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible. The rain will also
lead to flooding on area rivers.

Thunderstorms are ongoing early this afternoon across far
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas, featuring a large
hail threat. These early afternoon thunderstorms will shift
northward into Kansas and Missouri by 2 pm. Additional, stronger
thunderstorms are expected to develop mid to late this afternoon
and continue into the evening hours, focused across areas along
and south of Interstate 40. Hail up to the size of tennis balls,
damaging winds and tornadoes will all be possible. Far southeast
Oklahoma will have the highest threat for tornadoes, possibly
strong.

Strong and gusty northwest winds will spread into much of the
area tonight as the low pressure system responsible for the severe
weather and flooding moves over the area. Some gusts around 40
mph will be possible, especially over the higher terrain of
northwest Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Gusty northwest winds will continue behind the system Friday.
There is a slight chance of rain turning to snow for parts of far
northeast Oklahoma early Friday morning but no impacts are
expected at this time.

South winds will increase Sunday and Monday with warmer
temperatures, which could result in at least limited fire weather
potential.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers and first responders may need to respond to
impacts from severe weather and flooding. Watches and warnings
will likely be required this afternoon into the overnight hours.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1240 PM CST THU MAR 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 PM     HAIL             MIAMI                   36.86N 94.90W
03/02/2023  E1.75 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   PUBLIC

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1243 PM CST THU MAR 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     HAIL             2 SSW COMMERCE          36.92N 94.88W
03/02/2023  E0.88 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER 2SSW OF COMMERCE REPORTED NICKEL
            SIZE HAIL.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CST THU MAR 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     HAIL             MIAMI                   36.87N 94.88W
03/02/2023  E1.25 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   PUBLIC

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST THU MAR 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     HAIL             1 NW MIAMI              36.89N 94.89W
03/02/2023  E1.75 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND. ALSO, NUMEROUS
            SMALL BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
204 PM CST THU MAR 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HAIL             HINDSVILLE              36.15N 93.86W
03/02/2023  E0.75 INCH       MADISON            AR   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
212 PM CST THU MAR 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 PM     HAIL             2 S NARCISSA            36.77N 94.93W
03/02/2023  E1.50 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER RELAYED REPORT OF 1.50
            INCH HAIL 2 MILES SOUTH OF NARCISSA. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JDS