River Flood Warning 10, NWS Tulsa, OK

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
521 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
521 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Far Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Morning...More Significant Risk by Mid-Afternoon.

    AREA AT GREATEST RISK...South of I-40.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Western Arkansas and Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Western Arkansas and Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Evening.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread heavy rainfall, with an elevated threat of flash
flooding, will impact much of western Arkansas as well as
southeast and east central Oklahoma through tonight. Much of the
area will see from 2 to 4 inches of rain, with localized amounts
up to 6 inches possible.

Thunderstorm chances will increase through the day today, with
all modes possible across far southeast Oklahoma from late this
afternoon into the evening. There remains some potential for
higher-end severe weather threat to expand into far southeast
Oklahoma during this time. Aside from the threat this afternoon, a
few stronger elevated cells could produce large hail beginning as
early as this morning.

Strong and gusty northwest winds will spread into much of the
area tonight as the low pressure system responsible for the severe
weather and flooding moves over the area. Some gusts around 40
mph will be possible, especially over the higher terrain of
northwest Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Gusty northwest winds will continue behind the system Friday.
There is a slight chance of rain turning to snow for parts of far
northeast Oklahoma early Friday morning but no impacts are
expected at this time.

South winds will increase Sunday and Monday with warmer
temperatures, which could result in at least limited fire weather
potential.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers and first responders may need to respond to
severe weather impacts from this storm system. Watches and
warnings will likely be required this evening into the overnight
hours.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.