Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
604 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thru Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Thunderstorm coverage is increasing across KS along an advancing
outflow reinforced cool front. The airmass across E OK and W AR is
recovering from overnight/morning storms, with decaying outflow
boundary lifting north across the region. Along and south of this
boundary, dewpoints are in the mid to upper 70s and this theta-e
axis extends north and west up toward the KS storms. Skies have
cleared across northern OK and southern KS this afternoon, which
should allow downstream airmass to further destabilize ahead of
the storms. Combine this with gradually increasing deep layer
WNWrly flow aloft and you get the potential for one or more severe
MCSs. All of the CAM guidance in some shape or form show bowing
line segments punching into the forecast area by late this
afternoon and evening. Swaths of severe/damaging wind are in play,
with gusts 70 to 80 mph possible. In addition, a swath of 3 to 5
inch rains fell last night into this morning from near
Bartlesville southeast to Fort Smith. The latest runs of the HRRR
suggest potential for locally heavy rain to fall over this
corridor tonight. PWATs in excess of 2 inches exist over the
region, which will lead to heavy rain rates. Rain totals will
likely be limited by the progressive nature of the system. Based
on the latest data, will consider a flood watch along the
aforementioned heavy rain axis from last night.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Low storm chances will persist in the east on Saturday and across
the south near the Red River Sunday, but shouldn't be a big deal.
We'll get a break from the heat behind tonight's cool front, with
highs only in the low 90s and lower dewpoints. Another boundary
is expected to stall just to our north and east Sunday into
Monday, so will keep low storm chances near KS/MO borders. The mid
level ridge is expected to build over the region toward midweek.
Followed the lead of the previous shift and maintained higher
dewpoints and lower high temps, using a similar pattern that lead
to the very dangerous heat over the past few days (wet period
followed by ridge/heat). Heat headlines will return next week.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

The major aviation weather story this evening will be the
advancing squall line moving into northeast OK from KS. This storm
will be capable of widespread strong northerly winds in excess of
30 kts, locally much higher. CIGS will lower to 3-5 kft, locally
as low as 1-2 kft. Heavy rain, lightning, and hail are all
possible with the storm system. This is a stronger than typical
storm for this time of year.

In terms of timing, KBVO will see the storm between 0-2Z, with
KTUL and KRVS from 1-3Z, and the NW AR TAF locations from 2-4Z.
Confidence is lower on whether the storm will reach KMLC or KFSM,
but if it does so it would be after 4Z this evening. Secondary
storms are expected to develop after midnight and may impact any
TAF site with brief heavy rain and lightning. Skies will clear out
Saturday with a breezy north to northwest wind.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  90  69  93 /  80  10  10  10
FSM   74  92  72  96 /  60  20  10  20
MLC   73  89  70  91 /  50  20  20  30
BVO   67  90  66  93 /  80  10  10  10
FYV   69  89  66  93 /  80  20  10  10
BYV   69  89  65  93 /  90  20  10  10
MKO   71  88  68  91 /  70  10  10  20
MIO   69  90  66  93 /  90  10   0   0
F10   70  88  68  90 /  60  10  20  20
HHW   75  91  73  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ055>058-061>063-068-
     069-072.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>056-059>062-
     064>072-074-076.

AR...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ARZ001-010-019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
526 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
526 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...Severe Thunderstorm Expected into Tonight...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA....Far Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 6pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 6pm.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma into West-central Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 6pm.

DISCUSSION...
A complex of severe thunderstorms will track from southeast Kansas
across far northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas.  A swath
of 55 to 65 mph winds will occur with these storms.  A few locations
will likely see gusts near 75 mph.  As winds aloft increase this
evening and tonight there will be the potential for some rotation
along the line.

Other storms will are also occurring in southern Kansas and will
soon be moving into eastern Oklahoma.  These storm will also
produce severe weather with the stronger storms producing gusts of
60 to 70 mph and isolated quarter size hail.

Both areas of storms will move southeast and south across
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into tonight.  Very heavy
rainfall will occur with the stronger storms and there is a
risk of flash flooding, especially in areas that received heavy rain
last night and this morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY and Sunday...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY through Thursday...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The chance for thunderstorms will drop off going into
the weekend and next week as the heat builds again
in the area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
257 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Oologah            36.43N 95.68W
07/14/2023                   Rogers             OK   Public

            6 inch diameter treen down on top of a truck
            on the south end of Oologah Lake. Estimated
            winds of 60 mph. Time is radar estimated.
            Report relayed via social media.

&&