Flood Watch 4, NWS Tulsa, OK

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
536 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
536 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

... Scattered Strong to Severe Storms Tonight...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Mainly after 10pm.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 10pm.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Significant to Critical.
	AREA...Area Wide.
	ONSET...Now... decreasing after sunset.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Eastern Oklahoma and West-central Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...
Hot, humid, and unstable conditions continue across the area.  Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop tonight in northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas.  While a complex of storms is forecast to move
into northeast Oklahoma after Midnight and continue into Arkansas.
A few of the storms could be severe with strong winds the main concern.
The merging of the initial storms with the complex may result in a zone
of very heavy rain late tonight from parts of northeast Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas.  Rainfall in this corridor of 2 to 3 inches is
could occur, with a local extreme near 5 inches possible.  Trends for
this will be monitored.  A Flood Watch may be needed later tonight as
the potential becomes more clear.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Little change in the current weather pattern is expected into Sunday with daily
chances of thunderstorms and high heat and humidity.  Given the extreme instability
that is across the area, local flooding and very strong wind gusts will be possible
with the stronger storms.  If a well organized storm complex can form in the next few
days, a higher-end wind event could develop.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers should follow the forecasts closely the next several days as the
severe weather potential in this type of weather pattern can ramp down or up very
quickly.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.