Severe Thunderstorm Warning 244, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1221 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 945 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

While confidence is low on the placement of where
the heaviest rain falls later tonight, the very
high precipitable water is concerning.  So we have
started with a small flood watch, but will adjust
as the situation develops.

A an area of upward motion has been slowly coming
east across northwest Oklahoma, likely in association
with a weak disturbance aloft.  This as a diffuse
front lays across the area from near the Missouri
and Arkansas border into northeast Oklahoma and
then central Oklahoma.  Low-level winds should begin
to increase soon from the southwest and start to enhance
a zone of low-level level lift near a some north of
the front.  The combination of the above will be increasing
thunderstorm coverage in eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas soon. At the moment the best overlap of forcing
looks like it will be in northeast Oklahoma. Fortunately the
forcing may not lock in and keep moving.  So that would
limit rain amounts some, but the excessive atmospheric
moisture will offset that and likely result in quick 2 or
3 inch rain amounts in the stronger storms, with local
amounts near 5 inches in play.  We are watching the evolution
of the new storms in central Oklahoma. The ultimate track of
this activity may necessitate expanding the watch to account
for those storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast to be ongoing across
parts of the CWA Friday morning before the MCS can push
east/southeast of the region. At the same time...the upper level
ridge is expected to begin retreating westward which will aid in
slightly cooler conditions for Friday afternoon. The warmest/humid
conditions are forecast across parts of southeast
Oklahoma...depending on the exact track of the MCS. Thus for
now...will add Pittsburg/Pushmataha/Choctaw counties into a Heat
Advisory for tomorrow with the potential of possible expansion if
the highest rainfall is more on the far northeast portion of the
CWA.

Another MCS is forecast to push into the region Friday night into
Saturday. This complex could be accompanied with a cool front
sagging southward into the region. Again...severe potentials will
be possible with the Friday night MCS with much of the precip
tapering off Saturday morning. The frontal boundary looks to push
into southeast Oklahoma Saturday with high temps in the upper
80s/low 90s forecast north of the boundary.

One more MCS may try to push southeast across southeast Oklahoma
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The cooler conditions look to
linger into Sunday with highs again in the upper 80s/lower 90s.
This cooler period is expected to be short-lived as the strong
ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest again expands
eastward into the Southern Plains. This will allow for the hot and
humid conditions to return the CWA with the precip chances mainly
remaining north of the CWA. High temps in the upper 90s to around
100 deg are forecast for much of the CWA for the middle part of
next week. Looking at the far end of the forecast...the ridge may
retreat west again late next week allowing for thunderstorm
chances to return. This will continue to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Scattered thunderstorms developing across eastern Oklahoma
currently will impact area sites through the night into
Friday morning before diminishing. MVFR to IFR conditions can
be expected in thunderstorm area. Conditions improve Friday
afternoon before another round of thunderstorms impacts area
sites after 03z Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  73  91  72 /  50  50  10  20
FSM   94  75  92  73 /  40  60  20  20
MLC   94  75  92  73 /  30  40  10  30
BVO   93  69  90  69 /  50  60  10  10
FYV   89  70  88  68 /  50  70  20  10
BYV   89  69  88  68 /  60  70  30  10
MKO   93  72  91  71 /  50  70  20  20
MIO   91  69  90  69 /  50  70  20  10
F10   93  72  90  71 /  40  60  10  30
HHW   93  77  93  75 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ049-053-073.

     Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ055>058-061>063-
     067>069-072.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
536 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
536 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

... Scattered Strong to Severe Storms Tonight...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Mainly after 10pm.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 10pm.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Significant to Critical.
	AREA...Area Wide.
	ONSET...Now... decreasing after sunset.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Eastern Oklahoma and West-central Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...
Hot, humid, and unstable conditions continue across the area.  Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop tonight in northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas.  While a complex of storms is forecast to move
into northeast Oklahoma after Midnight and continue into Arkansas.
A few of the storms could be severe with strong winds the main concern.
The merging of the initial storms with the complex may result in a zone
of very heavy rain late tonight from parts of northeast Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas.  Rainfall in this corridor of 2 to 3 inches is
could occur, with a local extreme near 5 inches possible.  Trends for
this will be monitored.  A Flood Watch may be needed later tonight as
the potential becomes more clear.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Little change in the current weather pattern is expected into Sunday with daily
chances of thunderstorms and high heat and humidity.  Given the extreme instability
that is across the area, local flooding and very strong wind gusts will be possible
with the stronger storms.  If a well organized storm complex can form in the next few
days, a higher-end wind event could develop.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers should follow the forecasts closely the next several days as the
severe weather potential in this type of weather pattern can ramp down or up very
quickly.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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