Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2023

Mesoscale Discussion 8

January 2, 2023Choctaw County, Oklahoma; 27 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 2, 2023, 4:45 PM CST for Choctaw County, Oklahoma; 27 counties in Texas. It was in force for 90 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 2, 2023, 4:45 PM CST (22:45 UTC)
Expired
Jan 2, 2023, 6:15 PM CST
In force
90 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
40%
All 28 counties

Choctaw County, OK, Anderson County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Delta County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Houston County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Madison County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Rains County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Smith County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Walker County, TX, Washington County, TX, Wood County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 143 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 223 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2023-01-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 847 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2023-01-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 205 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
847 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-49 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
555 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
205 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
216 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
2.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 2, 11:34 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMcCurtain2 hr
Jan 2, 1:22 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCMcCurtain8 hr
Jan 2, 2:02 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 38 more118 min
Jan 2, 3:34 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Atoka, Bryan, Cherokee, Choctaw, Coal and 32 more6 hr
Jan 2, 5:45 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Cherokee, Craig, Delaware, Haskell, Latimer and 8 more90 min
Jan 2, 2:39 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCass, Harrison, Marion, Panola, Sabine, Shelby96 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2023Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2023Every mesoscale discussion in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.