Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
320 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 106 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Key messages

1) Potential for severe weather and heavy rain Tuesday, but
threat is lower than Monday.

.Tonight...Bulk of convection will move east of the region in the
evening. High resolution models suggest storms could linger in
southeast in the southeast portion of the plains into the evening.
Convection will mostly end by midnight.

.Tuesday...Trough over northeast Colorado slowly moves eastward
during the day. High resolution models show convection developing
over the Palmer Divide/Pikes Peak region around midday and moving
to the south and east during the day. HREF has mean CAPE values in
excess of 1000 J/kg during the afternoon with bulk shears
approaching 30 knots. SPC has a marginal risk for much of the
southeast plains. Heavy rainfall will also be a threat and WPC has
a marginal risk for excessive rainfall in the Day 2 outlook. PWAT
decrease to around 0.7 to 0.9 inches on the plains, but these
values are still above average. The storms will be capable of
producing some heavy rain, but the storms will be more
progressive with less indications for training of echoes. The very
moist soil conditons will increase threat for flash flooding.
--PGW--

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 106 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

.Wednesday through Monday...The pattern changes with a trough
moving across the northern Rockies. As the flow becomes more
westerly, a lee trough would tend to develop with less low level
moisture on the plains. There will still be chances for diurnal
convection but the severe and heavy rain threat will much less.
Will have to watch out for Friday and possibly Saturday as the
trough moves to the east. Anticyclogenesis over the northern high
plains could bring a return of usplope flow for increased low
level moisture and severe chances on the plains. A mean trough
develops along the west coast over the weekend and into next week
with warming and drying weather. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

KALS...VFR.

KCOS and KPUB...Convection will mostly move east of the region by
early evening. Will have to watch for the development of low
clouds and fog overnight. Northerly winds at KCOS could limit the
development of the fog and lower clouds. During the afternoon on
Tuesday, diurnal convection is possible.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ081-082-084>089-
093>098.

&&

SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PGW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-131800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are once again expected across the
plains, along and east of the I-25 corridor, this afternoon and
evening. Large hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusts up to
around 60 mph will be possible with the strongest storms. A low end
tornado risk remains possible over the plains this afternoon.

Torrential rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm this
morning into this evening, along with the risk for flash flooding.
While the highest risk of flash flooding is across Teller and El
Paso Counties, flash flooding risk is possible anywhere across
the plains and Interstate 25 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A few strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday across the
Pikes Peak Region, south along the Interstate 25 corridor, then
spreading east across the Plains. Wind gust in excess of 50 mph,
hail larger than 1 inch and heavy rainfall will be the main storm
risks. Flash flooding on burn scars and areas that have seen
recent heavy rainfall is possible.

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across
the region. More isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible over the mountains Thursday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

06/06

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
153 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 PM     Flash Flood      4 SSE Canon City        38.42N 105.20W
06/12/2023                   Fremont            CO   Emergency Mngr

            Heavy Flooding. A foot of hail accumulated
            on the ground. Vehicles stranded.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
301 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

COZ089-095-096-122200-
Crowley County CO-Western Kiowa County CO-Eastern Kiowa County CO-
301 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Kiowa and east
central Crowley Counties through 400 PM MDT...

At 301 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northeast of Sugar City to near Haswell
to near Sweetwater Reservoir. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eads, Sheridan Lake, Haswell, Neeoshe Reservoir, Sweetwater
Reservoir, Chivington, Brandon, Neegronda Reservoir and Queens
Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 10255 3827 10268 3840 10315 3828 10362
      3853 10350 3853 10317 3861 10317 3862 10242
      3851 10222
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 244DEG 17KT 3833 10355 3849 10324 3842 10273

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Ehr

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
338 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     Hail             3 SE Colorado City      37.91N 104.80W
06/12/2023  M0.88 inch       Pueblo             CO   Trained Spotter

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
339 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

COZ095>098-122245-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
Western Kiowa County CO-Eastern Kiowa County CO-
339 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...A cluster of strong thunderstorms will impact portions of
northwestern Prowers, Kiowa and northeastern Bent Counties through
445 PM MDT...

At 338 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sweetwater Reservoir, or 22 miles northwest of Lamar, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lamar, Eads, Wiley, Sheridan Lake, Haswell, Neeoshe Reservoir,
McClave, Sweetwater Reservoir, Chivington, Brandon, Neegronda
Reservoir and Queens Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3802 10274 3852 10333 3853 10317 3861 10317
      3861 10234 3836 10208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 229DEG 15KT 3834 10287

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Ehr