River Flood Warning 6, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
445 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Key messages:

1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are once again possible across the
plains, along and east of the I-25 corridor, this afternoon and
evening. Large hail to the size of golf balls and damaging winds to
around 60 mph are the main hazards, though a low end tornado risk
remains possible.

2) Heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm this
afternoon into this evening, and think most at risk for flash
flooding will be areas across Teller and El Paso Counties with the
Flash Flood Watch now in effect until tonight.

The bulk of the strongest thunderstorms have since ended early this
morning, though scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are
persisting. This will likely continue this morning across much of
the plains given the broad southwesterly flow in place, though do
think any stronger development will be rather limited. Where some
additional stronger storms may continue this morning is across El
Paso county. In this location, outflow from earlier thunderstorm
development is shifting south at this time and with a steady south
southeast wind in place, should see additional isolated thunderstorm
development this morning. RAP analysis is showing a bullseye of
higher CAPE in this location that should assist in thunderstorm
development. Don't anticipate any severe storms early this morning,
but an isolated stronger storm with heavy, potentially torrential,
rainfall will be possible. Given the likelihood for additional
thunderstorm development with heavy/torrential rainfall this morning
and later today and with the earlier observed flash flooding across
parts of El Paso county, have decided to extend the Flash Flood
Watch into tonight. While confidence for flash flooding across
Teller county today may slightly lower, the deeper southeasterly
flow and higher dewpoint air well into Teller county is concerning.
So, felt an extension in this area was warranted as well.

Partial clearing in a very moist environment today coinciding with
steeper lapse rates in place, should support quick increases in
instability later this morning into early afternoon. With
additional increases in flow today, higher bulk shear values are
also expected. This will help support another day of strong to
severe storms across the plains this afternoon into the evening. A
more defined mid level wave is expected to pivot overhead this
afternoon, while lee troughing occurs. Along and north of this
trough and within the moisture axis, should see thunderstorm
development by early afternoon. Additional development is appearing
likely within lee low/mid level convergence zone across the Pikes
Peak region, once again, by early afternoon. Should see storms
quickly become strong to severe with large hail to the size of golf
balls and wind gusts to around 60 mph the main hazards. Once again,
the tornado risk is low today, though can't rule out a tornado or
two especially within the trough/moisture axis where flow is even
more backed. Another day of potential heavy/torrential rainfall
along with the risk of flash flooding. While can't rule out
localized flash flooding with any stronger storm, the highest risk
for additional flash flooding looks to be across El Paso County. The
severe risk then shifts to the eastern plains by late this afternoon
and early evening, with similar possible hazards.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Models are in decent agreement through much of the extended, with
differences next weekend in how they want to handle energy moving
across Colorado. It does look like the forecast is going to warm
up and dry out as we move through the extended.

Tuesday and Wednesday...the pesky upper system is forecast to
meander over northeast Colorado on Tuesday, before heading into
Oklahoma on Wednesday. Tuesday looks like another active day, with
widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. Initial development
looks to be across the Eastern Mountains and Pike Peak region,
then spread south and east across the Plains. Severe weather will
be a concern, especially if we can destabilize. Destabilization
will depend on cloud cover early on Tuesday, and how quickly we
can clear out. Current guidance shows CAPE values near 1000 j/kg
by mid afternoon from El Paso County, south along the I-25
corridor into the Raton Mesa. Shear values look around 30 kts,
which would be sufficient to get updrafts rotating, allowing for a
severe hail threat. Hail in excess of 1 inch in diameter, wind
gusts in excess of 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall will all be
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Flash flooding will be a
concern, especially for area burn scars and locations that have
seen recent heavy rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms should track
south and east, dissipating overnight.

Wednesday looks to be a transition day, with high pressure
building across the Desert Southwest, and the upper low finally
moving away from the area. Residual moisture and weak energy
moving through zonal flow, will likely lead to showers and
thunderstorms, initiating over the Mountains, and spreading east
into the Plains, mainly impacting areas north of Highway 50. Gusty
winds, hail and locally heavy rainfall will all be possible.
Shower and thunderstorm activity should dissipate during the
evening hours.

Thursday through Saturday...high pressure is forecast to build
across the Desert Southwest as we head through the late week and
early weekend period. Drier PWAT air is forecast to move across
Colorado, leading to drier conditions. Weak embedded energy in the
westerly zonal flow will lead to daily afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms, but coverage looks to be more isolated
to scattered in nature. In addition, drier air will keep these
storms from becoming efficient precipitation producers.
Temperatures will also warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s
across the Plains.

Sunday and Monday...an upper low is forecast to moving into the
Pacific Northwest, with longwave troughing along the west coast.
This will force flow southwesterly across Colorado. Enhanced
mixing and drier air will allow temperatures to warm into the 90s
for early next week. Breezy southwest winds will also be on the
increase by Monday. Any shower or thunderstorm activity will be
isolated in nature and confined to the mountains.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 353 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

The bulk of the shower and thunderstorm development has ended across
the terminals, though latest radar imagery is showing scattered
showery development persisting at this time. While more isolated, do
think showers will be periodically be observed this morning. VFR
conditions currently in place at ALS will continue through the
period, with mainly dry weather also continuing. For COS and PUB,
MVFR and IFR ceilings in place this morning will persist but slowly
improve through midday. These lower conditions will likely be slower
to improve for COS, given a continued south/southeast wind. Showers
will increase in coverage later this morning across COS and PUB,
with thunder becoming likely for both terminals by early to mid
afternoon. Under the strongest storms, strong/gusty winds, brief
lower ceilings, and potentially significant reductions in visibility
are all possible. The more widespread thunderstorms shift east of
the terminals by late afternoon, with only some isolated showers
remaining possible into the evening hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for COZ081-082-084-085.

&&

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
341 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 AM     Rain             8 SSW Colorado Springs  38.73N 104.89W
06/12/2023  M1.86 inch       El Paso            CO   Mesonet

            Mesonet station AV015 Colorado Springs. 6
            hour precipitation total.

&&

kam

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
342 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 AM     Rain             6 SSW Colorado Springs  38.74N 104.86W
06/12/2023  M1.72 inch       El Paso            CO   Mesonet

            Mesonet station AU923 Colorado Springs. 6
            hour precipitation total.

&&

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
522 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

COZ084-085-121200-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
522 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...Strong thunderstorms with torrential rainfall will impact
portions of central El Paso County through 600 AM MDT...

At 521 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Peyton to Colorado Springs. Movement was
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Colorado Springs, Fountain, Peyton, Schriever AFB,
Security, Peterson AFB, Security-Widefield, Falcon, Fort Carson and
Cimarron Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3908 10431 3869 10457 3866 10481 3907 10455
TIME...MOT...LOC 1121Z 211DEG 20KT 3897 10451 3879 10464

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Rodriguez

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