Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1153 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Expanding the flash flood watch to cover much of our eastern
plains. The one hour flash flood guidance is around 1.25 to 1.5
inches for much of the plains. HREF showing storms developing this
afternoon and moving across much of the eastern plains. With
abundant moisture and low LCLs, storms should be efficient heavy
rain producers. --PGW--

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Key messages:

1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are once again possible across the
plains, along and east of the I-25 corridor, this afternoon and
evening. Large hail to the size of golf balls and damaging winds to
around 60 mph are the main hazards, though a low end tornado risk
remains possible.

2) Heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm this
afternoon into this evening, and think most at risk for flash
flooding will be areas across Teller and El Paso Counties with the
Flash Flood Watch now in effect until tonight.

The bulk of the strongest thunderstorms have since ended early this
morning, though scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are
persisting. This will likely continue this morning across much of
the plains given the broad southwesterly flow in place, though do
think any stronger development will be rather limited. Where some
additional stronger storms may continue this morning is across El
Paso county. In this location, outflow from earlier thunderstorm
development is shifting south at this time and with a steady south
southeast wind in place, should see additional isolated thunderstorm
development this morning. RAP analysis is showing a bullseye of
higher CAPE in this location that should assist in thunderstorm
development. Don't anticipate any severe storms early this morning,
but an isolated stronger storm with heavy, potentially torrential,
rainfall will be possible. Given the likelihood for additional
thunderstorm development with heavy/torrential rainfall this morning
and later today and with the earlier observed flash flooding across
parts of El Paso county, have decided to extend the Flash Flood
Watch into tonight. While confidence for flash flooding across
Teller county today may slightly lower, the deeper southeasterly
flow and higher dewpoint air well into Teller county is concerning.
So, felt an extension in this area was warranted as well.

Partial clearing in a very moist environment today coinciding with
steeper lapse rates in place, should support quick increases in
instability later this morning into early afternoon. With
additional increases in flow today, higher bulk shear values are
also expected. This will help support another day of strong to
severe storms across the plains this afternoon into the evening. A
more defined mid level wave is expected to pivot overhead this
afternoon, while lee troughing occurs. Along and north of this
trough and within the moisture axis, should see thunderstorm
development by early afternoon. Additional development is appearing
likely within lee low/mid level convergence zone across the Pikes
Peak region, once again, by early afternoon. Should see storms
quickly become strong to severe with large hail to the size of golf
balls and wind gusts to around 60 mph the main hazards. Once again,
the tornado risk is low today, though can't rule out a tornado or
two especially within the trough/moisture axis where flow is even
more backed. Another day of potential heavy/torrential rainfall
along with the risk of flash flooding. While can't rule out
localized flash flooding with any stronger storm, the highest risk
for additional flash flooding looks to be across El Paso County. The
severe risk then shifts to the eastern plains by late this afternoon
and early evening, with similar possible hazards.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Models are in decent agreement through much of the extended, with
differences next weekend in how they want to handle energy moving
across Colorado. It does look like the forecast is going to warm
up and dry out as we move through the extended.

Tuesday and Wednesday...the pesky upper system is forecast to
meander over northeast Colorado on Tuesday, before heading into
Oklahoma on Wednesday. Tuesday looks like another active day, with
widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. Initial development
looks to be across the Eastern Mountains and Pike Peak region,
then spread south and east across the Plains. Severe weather will
be a concern, especially if we can destabilize. Destabilization
will depend on cloud cover early on Tuesday, and how quickly we
can clear out. Current guidance shows CAPE values near 1000 j/kg
by mid afternoon from El Paso County, south along the I-25
corridor into the Raton Mesa. Shear values look around 30 kts,
which would be sufficient to get updrafts rotating, allowing for a
severe hail threat. Hail in excess of 1 inch in diameter, wind
gusts in excess of 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall will all be
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Flash flooding will be a
concern, especially for area burn scars and locations that have
seen recent heavy rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms should track
south and east, dissipating overnight.

Wednesday looks to be a transition day, with high pressure
building across the Desert Southwest, and the upper low finally
moving away from the area. Residual moisture and weak energy
moving through zonal flow, will likely lead to showers and
thunderstorms, initiating over the Mountains, and spreading east
into the Plains, mainly impacting areas north of Highway 50. Gusty
winds, hail and locally heavy rainfall will all be possible.
Shower and thunderstorm activity should dissipate during the
evening hours.

Thursday through Saturday...high pressure is forecast to build
across the Desert Southwest as we head through the late week and
early weekend period. Drier PWAT air is forecast to move across
Colorado, leading to drier conditions. Weak embedded energy in the
westerly zonal flow will lead to daily afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms, but coverage looks to be more isolated
to scattered in nature. In addition, drier air will keep these
storms from becoming efficient precipitation producers.
Temperatures will also warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s
across the Plains.

Sunday and Monday...an upper low is forecast to moving into the
Pacific Northwest, with longwave troughing along the west coast.
This will force flow southwesterly across Colorado. Enhanced
mixing and drier air will allow temperatures to warm into the 90s
for early next week. Breezy southwest winds will also be on the
increase by Monday. Any shower or thunderstorm activity will be
isolated in nature and confined to the mountains.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

KALS...VFR. Convection looks to stay mostly north of KALS and
decided not to add VCTS for the first hour of the TAF.

KCOS and KPUB...Thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon
with the potential for some heavy rain. Storms may become severe. Most
of the convection should move east of the region by early
evening. Another round of convection Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for COZ081-082-084-085.

&&

UPDATE...PGW
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PGW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-131800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1155 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are once again expected across the
plains, along and east of the I-25 corridor, this afternoon and
evening. Large hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusts up to
around 60 mph will be possible with the strongest storms. A low end
tornado risk remains possible over the plains this afternoon.

Torrential rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm this
morning into this evening, along with the risk for flash flooding.
While the highest risk of flash flooding is across Teller and El
Paso Counties, flash flooding risk is possible anywhere across
the plains and Interstate 25 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A few strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday across the
Pikes Peak Region, south along the Interstate 25 corridor, then
spreading east across the Plains. Wind gust in excess of 50 mph,
hail larger than 1 inch and heavy rainfall will be the main storm
risks. Flash flooding on burn scars and areas that have seen
recent heavy rainfall is possible.

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across
the region. More isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible over the mountains Thursday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

06/06

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1246 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     Hail             Security                38.75N 104.74W
06/12/2023  E1.00 inch       El Paso            CO   Amateur Radio

            Hail size ranging from 0.75 to 1 inch in
            diameter.

&&

CH

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1253 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1252 PM     Flash Flood      2 S Canon City          38.44N 105.23W
06/12/2023                   Fremont            CO   Emergency Mngr

            Flooding along 9th street, with a foot of
            water over the road.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1254 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

COZ084-121945-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
1254 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern El Paso
County through 145 PM MDT...

At 1254 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Peyton to near Calhan to near Simla.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Calhan, Ramah and Peyton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3898 10406 3896 10428 3891 10444 3895 10460
      3909 10463 3913 10456 3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 226DEG 30KT 3900 10440 3907 10426 3909 10408

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Ehr

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1255 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 PM     Hail             1 SW Security           38.74N 104.74W
06/12/2023  E1.00 inch       El Paso            CO   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

1247 PM     Hail             2 NW Security           38.77N 104.75W
06/12/2023  E1.00 inch       El Paso            CO   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1256 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

COZ086>088-121945-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
1256 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Huerfano, northwestern Las Animas and southeastern Pueblo Counties
through 145 PM MDT...

At 1256 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles northeast of Walsenburg, or 34 miles east of Spring Burn Scar
north of Highway 160, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Huerfano, northwestern Las Animas and southeastern Pueblo Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3767 10453 3773 10461 3803 10437 3783 10408
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 223DEG 20KT 3773 10452

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PS