Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1036 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will become nearly stationary across eastern
Pennsylvania overnight. The cold front is then forecast to
slowly shift eastward over the weekend before finally moving
offshore during early next week. Another cold front looks to
arrive later Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Severe thunderstorm Watch # 674 will be allowed to expire at
11:00 PM. There was one severe thunderstorm moving from far
northern Delaware into extreme southeastern Pennsylvania around
10:30 PM. While scattered thunderstorms remain possible
overnight, the potential for severe weather will be on the
decrease.

Areas of fog are possible overnight, especially at locations
that receive rainfall, with a cloudier start to the day on
Saturday for most of our region.

On Saturday, the risk for severe weather looks much more
'marginal', given more clouds to start, lower temperatures with
highs mainly in the 80s, and less instability. Still, given a
very moist airmass remaining in place with dewpoints in the 70s,
high precipitable water values, and perhaps just 'enough'
shear, if we see some clearing in the afternoon, there will be a
threat for at least isolated strong to severe storms. It is
possible that we see a somewhat similar scenario to today, with
some storms firing just inland from the shore along the sea
breeze, then lifting northward, but perhaps less intensity and
coverage that what we are seeing on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Temperatures continuing to trend downward however it will
remain humid, with at least some convection around especially in
the afternoon and evening on Sunday.

As we go through Sunday, the axis of a gradually weakening
upper- level trough is forecast to arrive. This will keep a weak
surface front draped nearly north to south across our area.
Given some cooling aloft and some additional forcing for ascent
with the trough aloft arriving, some increase in convective
development should occur especially in the afternoon and early
evening hours. While there will be cooler temperatures (highs in
the low to mid 80s), it will remain humid as PWATs likely
remain in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. However, the instability will
be held down some (closer to 1500 J/kg) which should mostly
keep the thunderstorms intensity in check. Locally very heavy
rain will be probable once again with the high precipitable
water values and potentially slower storm motions. As of now,
the majority of the area is in a MARGINAL risk for excessive
rainfall leading to flash flooding.

Convection should begin to decrease in intensity and coverage
as we head into the overnight hours Sunday night. Scattered
showers and storms will likely persist through the night though,
particularly for areas near and northwest of the I-95 urban
corridor. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 60s
to near 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Summary...Cooler temperatures however a slow return to lower
dew points. A continuation for some possible showers and
thunderstorms at times.

Synoptic Overview...The axis of an upper-level trough is
forecast to work across our area during Monday as it weakens. A
much stronger upper-level trough is forecast to move across the
Great Lakes region and adjacent Canada during the first half of
next week before gradually shifting into the Northeast. The
timing of this feature will depend on the amplitude of it and if
it closes off or not. At the surface, a weak cold front is
forecast to finally get pushed offshore Monday. The next cold
front looks to arrive later Wednesday into Thursday.

For Monday...The axis of a gradually weakening upper-level
trough is forecast to cross our region. This will take a weak
cold front offshore. Given some cooling aloft and some forcing
for ascent with the weakening trough aloft, some convective
development should occur especially in the afternoon and early
evening hours. While there will be cooler temperatures it will
remain humid, however the instability will be held down some
which should lower the severe thunderstorm risk. Locally very
heavy rain will be probable due to high precipitable water
values and potentially slower storm motions, however the region
needs the rain and this could limit the flash flooding threat.

For Tuesday through Friday...Some drier air should work in
during Tuesday in the wake of the weak cold front, however there
is no significant push of drier low-level air and therefore a
humid air mass should still be in place. This may provide a
window for no convective chances though, however the next upper-
level trough working across the Great Lakes and toward the
Northeast will drive a cold front into our area later Wednesday
into Thursday. The details with this front and the extent of
convection will depend on the amplitude and timing of the trough
and associated surface cold front. While it remains humid for a
while, the dew points should lower some during peak heating
each day, although a more notable drop looks to occur late in
the week.

We continue to monitor the track forecast for Hurricane Lee.
The exact track remains uncertain especially tied to when it
makes a northward turn. Therefore it is way to soon to get
specific on any possible direct impacts. However, large swells
and the development of dangerous rip currents into our area will
become more likely during next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight...A chance of showers and thunderstorms, diminishing
in coverage after midnight mainly W/NW areas. Low clouds and fog
are possible toward morning, reducing conditions to MVFR or
IFR; lowest conditions north and west of I-95 and right along
the coast. Variable wind 5 knots or less. Medium confidence.

Saturday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms once again in
the afternoon and evening. MVFR to localized IFR ceilings giving
way to VFR conditions by mid-morning, then MVFR to brief IFR
conditions possible with any thunderstorms. Winds remaining
mainly light southerly, but gusty and erratic around any
thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Sunday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions probable along some
showers and thunderstorms. Greatest chance for showers and
thunderstorms is in the afternoon and evening. Southerly winds
5-10 knots decreasing to 5 knots or less. Low confidence.

Monday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions probable especially with
some showers and thunderstorms. Southwest to westerly winds
5-10 knots, becoming northwesterly around 5 knots or less Monday
night. Low confidence.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Sub-VFR conditions possible with chances
for showers, mainly in the afternoon to evening. Northerly winds
around 5 to 10 kts become southeasterly in the afternoon. Low
confidence.

Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with showers and
thunderstorms. Southerly winds around 5 to 10 kts. Low
confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
A southerly wind 5 to 10 knots is forecast overnight, then it
should pick up again around 10 kt from the south on Saturday.
Waves on our ocean waters are expected to be 2 to 3 feet, with
waves on Delaware Bay at 2 feet or less.

Areas around DE Bay may have to keep an eye to the sky on
Saturday afternoon as well, but storms should tend to stay
inland from the ocean areas.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...No marine headlines expected. Main
concern will be for showers/storms, though best coverage looks
to stay inland away from the waters. Winds generally southerly
around 10 kts. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions unlikely. Seas begin
to build and may begin to approach 5 feet on Tuesday night.
Otherwise, southeasterly winds around 10 knots.

Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. Seas may
continue to build and become around 5 feet on Tuesday.
Otherwise, southerly winds around 10 knots.

Rip Currents...

A southerly wind around 10 MPH is anticipated for Saturday with
breaking waves of 1 to 2 feet. An underlying long period
easterly swell (around 10 seconds) is forecast. Being that
conditions will likely be similar to those of today, we will
keep the mention of a LOW risk of rip currents for Saturday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...Dodd
SHORT TERM...AKL/Gorse
LONG TERM...AKL/Gorse
AVIATION...AKL/Dodd
MARINE...AKL/Dodd

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1107 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023

PAZ054-055-090400-
Monroe PA-Carbon PA-
1107 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Carbon and
southwestern Monroe Counties through MIDNIGHT EDT...

At 1107 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
New Mahoning, or near Lehighton, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lehighton, Palmerton, Jim Thorpe, Nesquehoning, Weatherly, New
Mahoning, Gilbert, Lake Harmony, Albrightsville, Kresgeville, Jonas,
Meckesville, Beltzville State Park, Blakeslee, Penn Forest Reservoir,
Christmans, Brodheadsville, Lansford, Summit Hill and Bowmanstown.

This includes the following highways...
 Northeast Extension between mile markers 72 and 97.
 Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 277 and 287.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4113 7563 4093 7541 4078 7565 4077 7570
      4073 7576 4083 7590 4091 7599 4101 7573
      4105 7577 4108 7577 4111 7571 4113 7569
      4112 7565
TIME...MOT...LOC 0307Z 222DEG 19KT 4082 7584

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Iovino