Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
345 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in southern Minnesota
  through this evening. A few severe storms are possible.

- Quiet pattern sets up starting this weekend, with cooler
  temperatures and no significant chances for precipitation through
  the middle of next week.

Still a rather highly uncertain setup for this afternoon's convection
with multiple but weak ingredients at play that could still produce a
few strong/severe thunderstorms over southern MN. KMPX radar this
afternoon shows a few showers and thunderstorms north of the US212
corridor in MN. These storms are running through an environment that
is rather moist in the lower levels (evidenced by dewpoints around 70
degrees) but with still an appreciable dry layer up through the mid-
levels. There is a jet exit region punching from NW MN into central
MN, in the vicinity of a southeastward moving cold front. There is
also a secondary front sitting over northern IA which will be the
better focusing mechanism for more robust thunderstorm development
through the rest of this afternoon and evening. Thus, while the
coverage will be rather meager and many areas will see little/no
rain within the WFO MPX coverage area, there is still the thinking
that any storms that do develop through this evening may so do in
clusters that could develop fairly quickly and rise to the level of
being strong-severe. With regards to the SWODY1, the latest update
has nudged the Marginal Risk portion over eastern portions of our
area farther north just into the WFO DLH area, thus now encompassing
the entire Twin Cities metro. No changes were made to the Slight Risk
area over southern MN. The primary hazards for any strong-severe
thunderstorms thru this evening will be large hail (owing to steep
lapse rates) and damaging wind gusts (with 40-50kt midlevel winds),
but the biggest mitigating factor will be the expected poor coverage
of storms, especially as they traverse eastward.

Once we get to midnight, any and all storms should be to the east of
the WFO MPX coverage area and have dissipated, with the cold frontal
passage not far behind. The frontal passage will allow for much drier
air and slightly cooler air to slide into the Upper Midwest for the
weekend into early next week. This will make for a very comfortable
summer weekend across MN/WI as highs in the upper 80s to near 90 with
dewpoints around 70 dropping to highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
and dewpoints in the 50s both Saturday and Sunday.

Continuing into next week, high pressure at the surface along with
rather benign northwest flow aloft will be the prevailing features
which will drive a mainly dry forecast across our coverage area. The
few and far between rain chances will not amount to much, thus no
improvements to the drought conditions are anticipated. There does
look to be a cold frontal passage Wednesday into Thursday, as
temperatures warm through Wednesday (potentially reaching the lower
90s) then drop back for the end of the week. Blended model guidance
also has a few periods of slight chance PoPs in that Wednesday-
Thursday timeframe, but overall guidance is not impressed with the
prospects for appreciable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Able to start out all TAF sites as VFR for the 28/18z TAFs but the
question again is where/when will convection develop later this
afternoon evening. Still plenty of low-level moisture available along
with an approaching cold front from the NW. However, multiple runs of
CAMs still show widely varying solutions of the development of TSRA
this afternoon-evening. Aside from scattered -SHRA at the start near
AXN, confidence is too low to include SHRA/TSRA at any of the TAF
sites for later this afternoon-evening. The best placement of
convection looks to be near KMKT-KMSP-KRNH-KEAU, so have at least
steered those TAFs in that direction by adding in a mid-level deck
(likely cumulus clouds) along with an upper level ceiling. The timing
of that window generally coincides of when convection could occur, so
that should at least make for relatively simple AMDs should that come
to fruition.

KMSP...Have kept the TAF dry at this time due to low confidence in
the placement of any isolated/scattered TSRA development later this
afternoon-evening. That said, the best timing of any development
impacting MSP looks to be in the 23z-04z window later today, hence
the addition of the mid-level clouds and the upper level ceiling.
Once reaching midnight, tranquil conditions are expected thereafter
through tomorrow and the rest of the weekend.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Wind N 10-15 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
459 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
291400-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
459 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be likely through this evening mainly in
eastern and southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. A few
storms could be strong to severe, mainly along and south of a line
from Redwood Falls MN to the southern Twin Cities metro to Eau
Claire WI. The main hazards are large hail and damaging winds,
though a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially near the Iowa
border.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed through this
evening in east central through southeastern Minnesota into
western Wisconsin.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
443 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

MNZ060-062-070-282230-
Dakota MN-Hennepin MN-Ramsey MN-
443 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Hennepin, north central Dakota and Ramsey Counties through 530 PM
CDT...

At 442 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Golden Valley, or near Minneapolis, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Minneapolis and Columbia Heights around 450 PM CDT.
  Roseville around 500 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include St. Paul, West St.
Paul, Mendota Heights, Maplewood, Inver Grove Heights, South St. Paul
and Woodbury.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4492 9298 4489 9299 4489 9302 4484 9301
      4496 9342 4505 9341 4505 9329 4504 9328
      4504 9323 4505 9322 4506 9299
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 285DEG 30KT 4498 9336

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CTG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
447 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     MSP Airport             44.88N 93.23W
07/28/2023  M54 MPH          Hennepin           MN   ASOS

&&

BPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
506 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

MNZ060>063-070-282245-
Anoka MN-Washington MN-Dakota MN-Hennepin MN-Ramsey MN-
506 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Hennepin,
north central Dakota, southern Anoka, Washington and Ramsey Counties
through 545 PM CDT...

At 505 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Roseville, or 6 miles northeast of Minneapolis, moving east at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Vadnais Heights around 515 PM CDT.
  St. Paul, Maplewood, West St. Paul and Mendota Heights around 520
  PM CDT.
  Oakdale, White Bear Lake, South St. Paul and Mahtomedi around 525
  PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Woodbury, Lake
Elmo, Afton and Bayport.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 130 and 132.
 U.S. Highway 8 in Minnesota between mile markers 0 and 1.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
east central Minnesota...and northwestern and west central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4519 9277 4511 9274 4506 9280 4503 9276
      4497 9277 4494 9275 4475 9281 4478 9293
      4477 9301 4483 9301 4486 9346 4522 9345
      4529 9302 4530 9275
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 287DEG 24KT 4503 9318

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CTG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
518 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SW Eagan              44.81N 93.21W
07/28/2023                   Dakota             MN   Public

            Several medium to large tree branches down.
            Time estimated via radar. Photo included on
            Twitter.

&&

BPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
519 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSW Eagan             44.82N 93.16W
07/28/2023                   Dakota             MN   Public

            Report from Twitter with Photo. Large Pine
            tree knocked over in Eagan. Time estimated
            via Radar.

&&

BPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
521 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

MNZ063-WIZ023>025-282300-
Washington MN-Pierce WI-St. Croix WI-Dunn WI-
521 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Washington, northern Pierce, northwestern Dunn and St. Croix Counties
through 600 PM CDT...

At 521 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Hammond, or 17 miles northeast of River Falls, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Baldwin around 530 PM CDT.
  Woodville around 540 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Glenwood City,
Boyceville and Knapp.

This includes Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 1 and
37.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
east central Minnesota...and northwestern and west central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4466 9221 4488 9293 4521 9249 4521 9179
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 296DEG 29KT 4506 9241

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CTG