Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
345 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in southern Minnesota
  through this evening. A few severe storms are possible.

- Quiet pattern sets up starting this weekend, with cooler
  temperatures and no significant chances for precipitation through
  the middle of next week.

Still a rather highly uncertain setup for this afternoon's convection
with multiple but weak ingredients at play that could still produce a
few strong/severe thunderstorms over southern MN. KMPX radar this
afternoon shows a few showers and thunderstorms north of the US212
corridor in MN. These storms are running through an environment that
is rather moist in the lower levels (evidenced by dewpoints around 70
degrees) but with still an appreciable dry layer up through the mid-
levels. There is a jet exit region punching from NW MN into central
MN, in the vicinity of a southeastward moving cold front. There is
also a secondary front sitting over northern IA which will be the
better focusing mechanism for more robust thunderstorm development
through the rest of this afternoon and evening. Thus, while the
coverage will be rather meager and many areas will see little/no
rain within the WFO MPX coverage area, there is still the thinking
that any storms that do develop through this evening may so do in
clusters that could develop fairly quickly and rise to the level of
being strong-severe. With regards to the SWODY1, the latest update
has nudged the Marginal Risk portion over eastern portions of our
area farther north just into the WFO DLH area, thus now encompassing
the entire Twin Cities metro. No changes were made to the Slight Risk
area over southern MN. The primary hazards for any strong-severe
thunderstorms thru this evening will be large hail (owing to steep
lapse rates) and damaging wind gusts (with 40-50kt midlevel winds),
but the biggest mitigating factor will be the expected poor coverage
of storms, especially as they traverse eastward.

Once we get to midnight, any and all storms should be to the east of
the WFO MPX coverage area and have dissipated, with the cold frontal
passage not far behind. The frontal passage will allow for much drier
air and slightly cooler air to slide into the Upper Midwest for the
weekend into early next week. This will make for a very comfortable
summer weekend across MN/WI as highs in the upper 80s to near 90 with
dewpoints around 70 dropping to highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
and dewpoints in the 50s both Saturday and Sunday.

Continuing into next week, high pressure at the surface along with
rather benign northwest flow aloft will be the prevailing features
which will drive a mainly dry forecast across our coverage area. The
few and far between rain chances will not amount to much, thus no
improvements to the drought conditions are anticipated. There does
look to be a cold frontal passage Wednesday into Thursday, as
temperatures warm through Wednesday (potentially reaching the lower
90s) then drop back for the end of the week. Blended model guidance
also has a few periods of slight chance PoPs in that Wednesday-
Thursday timeframe, but overall guidance is not impressed with the
prospects for appreciable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Able to start out all TAF sites as VFR for the 28/18z TAFs but the
question again is where/when will convection develop later this
afternoon evening. Still plenty of low-level moisture available along
with an approaching cold front from the NW. However, multiple runs of
CAMs still show widely varying solutions of the development of TSRA
this afternoon-evening. Aside from scattered -SHRA at the start near
AXN, confidence is too low to include SHRA/TSRA at any of the TAF
sites for later this afternoon-evening. The best placement of
convection looks to be near KMKT-KMSP-KRNH-KEAU, so have at least
steered those TAFs in that direction by adding in a mid-level deck
(likely cumulus clouds) along with an upper level ceiling. The timing
of that window generally coincides of when convection could occur, so
that should at least make for relatively simple AMDs should that come
to fruition.

KMSP...Have kept the TAF dry at this time due to low confidence in
the placement of any isolated/scattered TSRA development later this
afternoon-evening. That said, the best timing of any development
impacting MSP looks to be in the 23z-04z window later today, hence
the addition of the mid-level clouds and the upper level ceiling.
Once reaching midnight, tranquil conditions are expected thereafter
through tomorrow and the rest of the weekend.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Wind N 10-15 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1151 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
291100-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1151 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. A few
storms could be strong to severe, mainly along and south of a
line from Redwood Falls MN to the southern Twin Cities metro to
Eau Claire WI. The main hazards are large hail and damaging winds,
though a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially near the Iowa
border.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon into
this evening for southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1209 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SW Brooklyn Park      45.09N 93.40W
07/19/2023                   Hennepin           MN   Public

            Delayed report - Image of tree down via
            social media, time estimated from radar.

&&

jrb

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1216 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NE Plymouth           45.05N 93.43W
07/19/2023                   Hennepin           MN   NWS Employee

            Corrected for time to match radar - Delayed
            report of large tree branches down.

&&

jrb

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WNW Plymouth          45.04N 93.51W
07/19/2023                   Hennepin           MN   Public

            Corrected for time to match radar - Delayed
            report of large tree down near the
            intersection of Peony Ln and Old Rockford
            Rd. Photo shared via social media.

&&

jrb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
258 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

MNZ043-044-050-282045-
Benton MN-Mille Lacs MN-Morrison MN-
258 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Mille
Lacs, northeastern Benton and southeastern Morrison Counties through
345 PM CDT...

At 258 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Foley, or 22 miles southeast of Little Falls, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Milaca and Foreston.

This includes U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 191 and 198.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in the Twin Cities.

&&

LAT...LON 4584 9401 4590 9396 4583 9352 4565 9376
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 295DEG 20KT 4584 9394

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
336 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

MNZ044-051-052-282115-
Isanti MN-Mille Lacs MN-Sherburne MN-
336 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Mille Lacs,
western Isanti and northeastern Sherburne Counties through 415 PM
CDT...

At 336 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Foreston, or 23 miles northwest of Cambridge, moving southeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Princeton around 350 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Cambridge.

This includes U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 175 and 192.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4563 9314 4542 9347 4569 9376 4571 9377
      4578 9366
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 303DEG 30KT 4570 9365

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
349 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

MNZ051-059-282130-
Sherburne MN-Wright MN-
349 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Wright
and central Sherburne Counties through 430 PM CDT...

At 349 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Becker, or 14 miles north of Buffalo, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Becker around 355 PM CDT.
  Monticello around 405 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Big Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 178 and 196.
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 189 and 206.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4537 9364 4520 9382 4539 9408 4542 9406
      4546 9398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 300DEG 19KT 4538 9395

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CTG