Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Twin Cities, MN

782 
WWUS53 KMPX 280425
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1125 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

MNC129-280435-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0135.000000T0000Z-230728T0500Z/
Renville MN-
1125 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN RENVILLE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4431 9445 4433 9445 4440 9464 4439 9467
      4443 9470 4446 9466 4446 9463 4464 9458
      4459 9412 4426 9437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0425Z 295DEG 25KT 4448 9450 

$$

MNC103-143-280500-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0135.000000T0000Z-230728T0500Z/
Sibley MN-Nicollet MN-
1125 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN SIBLEY AND NORTHWESTERN NICOLLET COUNTIES...

At 1125 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Gibbon, or 12
miles north of New Ulm, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Winthrop around 1135 PM CDT.
  Lafayette around 1140 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Klossner, St George and New Sweden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4431 9445 4433 9445 4440 9464 4439 9467
      4443 9470 4446 9466 4446 9463 4464 9458
      4459 9412 4426 9437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0425Z 295DEG 25KT 4448 9450 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

256 
WWUS53 KMPX 280435
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1135 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

MNC103-143-280500-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0135.000000T0000Z-230728T0500Z/
Sibley MN-Nicollet MN-
1135 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN SIBLEY AND NORTHWESTERN NICOLLET COUNTIES...

At 1134 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Winthrop to Lafayette to near New Ulm, moving east at
30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Gaylord and Courtland around 1150 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Klossner and St George.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4440 9463 4447 9450 4458 9446 4457 9414
      4426 9437 4431 9445 4433 9445
TIME...MOT...LOC 0434Z 291DEG 27KT 4455 9437 4446 9440 4434 9448 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

849 
WWUS53 KMPX 280451
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1151 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

MNC103-143-280500-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0135.000000T0000Z-230728T0500Z/
Sibley MN-Nicollet MN-
1151 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SIBLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL NICOLLET COUNTIES...

At 1150 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Gaylord to 6 miles east of Lafayette to near
Courtland, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of
south central Sibley and north central Nicollet Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4430 9443 4444 9434 4452 9429 4450 9419
      4426 9437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0450Z 295DEG 25KT 4451 9424 4442 9427 4430 9435 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

246 
WWUS53 KMPX 280459
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1159 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

MNC103-143-280508-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0135.000000T0000Z-230728T0500Z/
Sibley MN-Nicollet MN-
1159 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SIBLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL NICOLLET COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
the Twin Cities.

LAT...LON 4430 9443 4444 9434 4452 9429 4450 9419
      4426 9437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0458Z 295DEG 25KT 4449 9418 4440 9421 4428 9429 

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
913 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Disorganized, lines of thunderstorms are currently present from
central MN into northern half of WI. These mostly zonal lines have
formed due to various boundaries (convective outflows, a surface
trough and trailing cold front) interacting within the very moist, unstable
air. While most of the severe weather threat has diminished,
training storms have been observed and are expected to continue for
the next several hours. MPX 00z ROAB shows PWATs exceeding 1.8" and
a very high freezing level, which should allow for very heavy
rainfall rates. As such, have issued a Flash Flood Watch for portions
of east-central MN (including the Twin Cities metro) and all of our
WI counties until 4 AM Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Key Messages:

- Today and overnight, high impact severe weather possible across
  mainly eastern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. Damaging wind
  greater than 75 mph, and hail larger than tennis balls are possible
  with the storms.

- Friday, additional severe storms are possible, but this depends on
  how the overnight storms play out.

- Looking ahead, temperatures will be more seasonable next week,
  with occasional chances for thunderstorms.

Discussion...

Today and tonight…There is potential for high impact severe weather
later this afternoon into early tonight. Storms that develop will
have the potential for very large hail and damaging wind. The main
driver behind this set up is extreme amounts of instability due to
the hot and humid surface conditions, together with dry mid levels of
the atmosphere. The end result is MLCAPE values of over 4000 J/kg.
In addition, deep layer shear was on the order of 40 kts, which means
organized convection with strong updrafts. However, the 0-1km shear
was less than 10 kts, and the effective helicity was around 100 kts
or less. For this reason, the main threat with these storms is very
large hail, especially once they develop. After that, HiRes models
support the idea of a cold pool developing and these storms
congealing into a line, with strong winds becoming the primary
threats. Additional development is possible into the overnight hours,
but the main concern is between now and midnight. The main takeaway
from all of this is to continue to monitor the forecast, and know
where to seek shelter if warnings are issued for your location later
today.

Friday…There is a conditional threat for severe weather across
southern Minnesota into west central Wisconsin, but a lot will depend
on how the overnight convection plays out. Current thinking is that
the atmosphere will have time to destabilize with another round of
storms developing during the afternoon and evening. Once again the
deep layer shear and CAPE profiles would support severe weather.
There is a marginal risk of severe storms, but this could get
adjusted once the first round of storms moves through. A lot will
depend on where the boundaries set up, as cold air advection will be
moving in from the north.

Saturday through Thursday…A weak cold font is forecast to move
through the region and bring a slight reprieve from the heat and
humidity. This will also bring dry conditions over the weekend. Where
this frontal boundary eventually ends up and how quickly it returns
northward will determine when and where rain chances return.
Northwest flow will bring a few weak systems across the region, and
these could spark showers and thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest,
but the majority of the precipitation will be focused along the
aforementioned boundary which should be across the Upper Missouri
River basin. No changes were made to the blended forecast, and there
are small chances for precipitation next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

A small cluster of storms has formed just east of RWF along a
boundary that stretches zonally across south-central MN. Expecting
a broken line of storms to develop along this boundary within the
next 1-2 hours as the incoming shortwave approaches. These storms
will then move east, likely affecting MSP, MKT, RNH, and EAU into
late this evening. Conditions could drop to IFR with the heavy rain
and any wind gusts from the storms would likely be strong. Once the
storms exit to our east early Friday morning, VFR conditions expected
the remainder of the period with scattered high clouds. Southerly
winds this evening become northeasterly overnight and then trend more
northerly tomorrow afternoon. Aside from gusts from storms, speeds
will be between 5-10 knots.

KMSP...Potential for 2 rounds of storms tonight, with the first round
possible between 01-05z. These storms should be the strongest with
IFR conditions and strong wind gusts possible. Another round of
storms is possible after 2am as the cold front moves through.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind NE 10-15 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Friday for Anoka-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-
     Hennepin-Isanti-Ramsey-Scott-Sherburne-Washington-Wright.

WI...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Friday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau
     Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

UPDATE...CTG
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...CTG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
136 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
281845-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
136 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Excessive heat is expected today with Heat Index values of 100 to
110 degrees this afternoon.

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon through the
overnight hours. Large hail & damaging winds are the main
hazards, along with locally heavy rain. The greatest risk for
severe storms will be from central Minnesota into northwest
Wisconsin, where there is an Enhanced Risk (risk level 3 of 5) of
severe weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible Friday, along with the chance for
isolated severe weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon
and evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
921 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     Hail             Litchfield              45.12N 94.53W
07/27/2023  M0.88 inch       Meeker             MN   Trained Spotter

            Trained Spotter measured nickel sized hail
            in Litchfield, MN.

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
924 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     Hail             1 NNE Litchfield        45.13N 94.52W
07/27/2023  E1.00 inch       Meeker             MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.). Time
            estimated via radar.

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
933 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     Hail             1 W Rush City           45.68N 92.98W
07/27/2023  E1.50 inch       Chisago            MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Ping Pong Ball (1.50
            in.).

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
941 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     Rain             1 N Andover             45.26N 93.30W
07/27/2023  M1.50 inch       Anoka              MN   Trained Spotter

            Trained Spotter measured 1.5 inches of rain
            from 8:30 PM to 9:15 PM storm.

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
943 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     Hail             Lake Lillian            44.95N 94.88W
07/27/2023  M1.00 inch       Kandiyohi          MN   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency Management reported quarter size
            hail in the city of Lake Lillian, MN.

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1057 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Hail             3 SE Weber              45.44N 93.08W
07/27/2023  M1.25 inch       Isanti             MN   Public

            Delayed report via Facebook, mix of quarter
            to half dollar sized hail.

&&

TDH