Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
644 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- The first round of potential severe storms will be this morning
  across west central MN. The second round will focus across
  southern/eastern MN and WI late this afternoon and evening.

- Cooler and drier air will follow through the rest of the week with
  the next chance for rain this weekend.

A large area of showers with embedded strong thunderstorms is
pushing across South Dakota early this morning. Showers have reached
far western MN, but expecting the activity to build more northeast
than east with time. A small scale, but relatively strong 35-45 kt
LLJ will feed this complex through the morning hours as it tracks
across west central and northern MN. Return flow drawing moist and
unstable air northward immediately behind it could produce an
environment supportive of a few severe thunderstorms on the southern
periphery of the complex. Line segments or supercells capable of
wind damage and large hail would be possible given the instability/
shear relationship. The most favored area for severe this morning is
northwest of a line from Granite Falls to St. Cloud. That would be
round one for today.

Round two is expected later this afternoon and evening across
southern/eastern MN and WI. It is unclear how the morning activity
will augment the character of the cold front for later today, but
most of the energy from this morning will be well to the north.
Breaks in the clouds could send temperatures back into the lower 90s
ahead of the front and dew point pooling in the mid 60s to lower 70s
is likely. There could be a few showers and storms lingering along
the cold front for much of the day, but the second round should begin
to develop in earnest after 4 PM from southwest MN to northwest WI.
It appears there will be at least a broken squall line or clusters of
thunderstorms along the front that track east through the early
evening. The front won't be too progressive, so in addition to large
hail and damaging wind there will be a heavy rain threat. MBE
velocities less than 10 kts in the warm sector and pwats around 2
inches near the front underline this. The tornado threat should be
minimal due to low RH below 10kft and a veered flow pattern in the
boundary layer, but as with any severe thunderstorm the threat is
still non-zero.

Cooler and drier air will work in Wednesday, marking the beginning of
a period of near or below normal temperatures. Lows may drop into the
40s in most locations Wednesday night. With the split flow finally
pushed out, a seasonally strong zonal jet stream across the middle of
the country will divide cool air to the north from hot and humid air
across the southern U.S. We're expected to be on the north side into
next week and shortwaves will bring periodic shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

Showers and a few thunderstorms across far western MN have so far
avoided RWF and AXN, but that may not last long. The showers will
continue heading northeast through the morning with a low risk of
thunderstorms at either location proper. Another round will develop
later this afternoon which could affect all TAF sites. VFR outside of
any thunderstorms through the evening, then MVFR cigs could develop
overnight as any remaining showers end.

KMSP...Looking to remain dry through mid to late afternoon, with TS
developing nearby after 22Z. Best window for TS will be from 23-03Z
this evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR Chc MVFR/TSRA AM. Winds NW 10-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Winds S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
304 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
050815-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
304 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
throughout the day into the overnight hours. A few storms may be
severe with large hail and damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall
and frequent lightning are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
738 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

MNZ057-065-041315-
Kandiyohi MN-Renville MN-
738 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Kandiyohi and northeastern Renville Counties through 815 AM CDT...

At 738 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Olivia, or 15 miles north of Redwood Falls, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bird Island around 750 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Hector.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 68 and 95.
 U.S. Highway 71 between mile markers 90 and 109.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4498 9476 4489 9476 4489 9468 4471 9462
      4466 9463 4465 9508 4489 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 1238Z 257DEG 20KT 4476 9501

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1032 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

MNZ060-062-063-070-041615-
Washington MN-Dakota MN-Hennepin MN-Ramsey MN-
1032 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Hennepin, northwestern Dakota, southern Washington and Ramsey
Counties through 1115 AM CDT...

At 1031 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
over MSP International Airport where a gust of 45 mph was observed
at 1031 AM, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Rosemount around 1035 AM CDT.
  Mendota Heights around 1040 AM CDT.
  Inver Grove Heights, South St. Paul and West St. Paul around 1045
  AM CDT.
  St. Paul, Cottage Grove and St. Paul Park around 1050 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Woodbury and Afton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4513 9285 4490 9277 4482 9277 4480 9278
      4477 9281 4476 9323 4498 9334
TIME...MOT...LOC 1531Z 255DEG 27KT 4485 9319

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1106 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

MNZ063-070-WIZ023-024-041630-
Washington MN-Dakota MN-Pierce WI-St. Croix WI-
1106 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Dakota,
southern Washington, northwestern Pierce and southwestern St. Croix
Counties through 1130 AM CDT...

At 1106 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cottage Grove, or 11 miles west of River Falls, moving east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  River Falls.

This includes Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 8 and
11.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in the Twin Cities.

&&

LAT...LON 4471 9290 4490 9299 4497 9255 4476 9244
TIME...MOT...LOC 1606Z 249DEG 18KT 4482 9284

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NDC

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