Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
644 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- The first round of potential severe storms will be this morning
  across west central MN. The second round will focus across
  southern/eastern MN and WI late this afternoon and evening.

- Cooler and drier air will follow through the rest of the week with
  the next chance for rain this weekend.

A large area of showers with embedded strong thunderstorms is
pushing across South Dakota early this morning. Showers have reached
far western MN, but expecting the activity to build more northeast
than east with time. A small scale, but relatively strong 35-45 kt
LLJ will feed this complex through the morning hours as it tracks
across west central and northern MN. Return flow drawing moist and
unstable air northward immediately behind it could produce an
environment supportive of a few severe thunderstorms on the southern
periphery of the complex. Line segments or supercells capable of
wind damage and large hail would be possible given the instability/
shear relationship. The most favored area for severe this morning is
northwest of a line from Granite Falls to St. Cloud. That would be
round one for today.

Round two is expected later this afternoon and evening across
southern/eastern MN and WI. It is unclear how the morning activity
will augment the character of the cold front for later today, but
most of the energy from this morning will be well to the north.
Breaks in the clouds could send temperatures back into the lower 90s
ahead of the front and dew point pooling in the mid 60s to lower 70s
is likely. There could be a few showers and storms lingering along
the cold front for much of the day, but the second round should begin
to develop in earnest after 4 PM from southwest MN to northwest WI.
It appears there will be at least a broken squall line or clusters of
thunderstorms along the front that track east through the early
evening. The front won't be too progressive, so in addition to large
hail and damaging wind there will be a heavy rain threat. MBE
velocities less than 10 kts in the warm sector and pwats around 2
inches near the front underline this. The tornado threat should be
minimal due to low RH below 10kft and a veered flow pattern in the
boundary layer, but as with any severe thunderstorm the threat is
still non-zero.

Cooler and drier air will work in Wednesday, marking the beginning of
a period of near or below normal temperatures. Lows may drop into the
40s in most locations Wednesday night. With the split flow finally
pushed out, a seasonally strong zonal jet stream across the middle of
the country will divide cool air to the north from hot and humid air
across the southern U.S. We're expected to be on the north side into
next week and shortwaves will bring periodic shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

Showers and a few thunderstorms across far western MN have so far
avoided RWF and AXN, but that may not last long. The showers will
continue heading northeast through the morning with a low risk of
thunderstorms at either location proper. Another round will develop
later this afternoon which could affect all TAF sites. VFR outside of
any thunderstorms through the evening, then MVFR cigs could develop
overnight as any remaining showers end.

KMSP...Looking to remain dry through mid to late afternoon, with TS
developing nearby after 22Z. Best window for TS will be from 23-03Z
this evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR Chc MVFR/TSRA AM. Winds NW 10-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Winds S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
304 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
050815-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
304 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
throughout the day into the overnight hours. A few storms may be
severe with large hail and damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall
and frequent lightning are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
634 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

MNZ054-064-041200-
Yellow Medicine MN-Lac Qui Parle MN-
634 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Lac qui
Parle and central Yellow Medicine Counties through 700 AM CDT...

At 634 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Madison to 6 miles northeast of Taunton.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Madison and Dawson around 640 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Clarkfield and
Boyd.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4514 9603 4506 9592 4466 9563 4463 9573
      4463 9603 4499 9624
TIME...MOT...LOC 1134Z 212DEG 29KT 4498 9616 4467 9598

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Borghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
702 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

MNZ056-057-065-041230-
Chippewa MN-Kandiyohi MN-Renville MN-
702 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of east central
Chippewa, southwestern Kandiyohi and northwestern Renville Counties
through 730 AM CDT...

At 702 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Maynard to 6 miles southeast of Sacred
Heart. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Clara City around 710 AM CDT.
  Renville around 715 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Olivia, Raymond
and Prinsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4491 9549 4508 9516 4471 9493 4466 9524
      4467 9525 4466 9529 4469 9532 4470 9536
TIME...MOT...LOC 1202Z 243DEG 22KT 4488 9541 4470 9529

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Borghoff