Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
622 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered strong storms this afternoon and evening, especially MSP
  metro and northeast into WI. Wind is the primary threat.

- More widespread showers and storms on Tuesday across the entire
  area, with a higher threat for strong/severe storms.

A cold front stretching from near Duluth into southwest Minnesota is
dividing the seasonably warm air to the north to the hot and humid
air to the south, where temperatures have risen into the lower and
middle 90s. This latter airmass is the focus for strong to severe
thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. The main
question is the degree of upper-level lift that will be in place to
support thunderstorm development along the boundary. Water vapor
imagery shows a very subtle mid-level wave entering northern and
central Minnesota, with the best lift up by Duluth where numerous
storms have already developed. This activity has developed quite a
bit faster and more widespread than model guidance had predicted,
which suggests ample upper support is indeed in place, and makes it
entirely possible this more aggressive trend could continue with
storms building southward into the MSP metro and south central
Minnesota/western Wisconsin through the evening. Shear is very weak,
but instability is high, so short-lived strong/severe storms are
quite possible with any activity that develops. Steep low- level
lapse rates and dry air aloft will be very favorable for strong
downbursts and associated cold pools/gust fronts with these storms,
so severe wind will be the main hazard for any outdoor activities
this evening. Frequent lightning and hail will also be possible. If
enough storms can develop, there is a potential for cold pools to
congeal and possibly drive convection to be more widespread than
currently anticipated. Otherwise expect the threat to remain fairly
scattered through the evening.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on
Tuesday/Independence Day as the primary upper trough approaches from
the north. This will bring slightly higher shear values into the
area, and support a more widespread severe thunderstorm threat *if*
enough instability is in place. This latter factor will be the main
question as there is the potential for rain and clouds to develop
through the overnight and early morning and cut down the available
instability. Areas that see sun for much of the day could see CAPE
values in excess of 2500 J/kg, which could support a multi-modal
severe threat including lines and isolated supercells, especially
near the front over central Minnesota where low-level shear will be
locally higher. This threat will need to wait until tomorrow morning
to be better assessed, once the evolution of overnight/early morning
activity is known.

By early Wednesday the primary front will swing through the area and
bring an end to precipitation chances for the remainder of the work
week. This will also usher in cooler and more pleasant weather, with
highs in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday, and rising back to near
normal by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

A cluster of multicell thunderstorms will continue making its way
across Wisconsin this evening. Should only have VCTS impacts for RNH
at this point and arrive at EAU later this evening. After these
storms pass it will be a mostly quiet VFR night with light winds.
Tomorrow morning a line of storms in the Dakotas could make its way
into western Minnesota, so kept the tempo groups in for that. Past
that the next round of more widespread thunderstorms would be
tomorrow evening. When thunderstorms pass through expect MVFR with
periods of IFR during the heaviest rain.

KMSP... For the rest of today into tomorrow morning storms should
remain away from the terminal area. Gusty winds again tomorrow
afternoon with thunderstorms once again possible tomorrow evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR Chc MVFR/TSRA. Winds NW 10-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Winds S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Carver-Chisago-
     Dakota-Hennepin-Isanti-Ramsey-Scott-Sherburne-Washington-
     Wright.

WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...NDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
301 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
042015-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
301 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. A
few storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds,
especially across southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin.
Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
and evening across much of the area. Large hail, damaging winds,
and heavy rainfall are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
601 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

WIC095-109-040030-
St. Croix-Polk-
601 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the
following counties...

St. Croix...Polk...

* Until 730 PM CDT.

* At 601 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in
  the area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience minor flooding include...
  New Richmond, Amery, St. Croix Falls, Baldwin, Hammond, Roberts,
  Woodville, Glenwood City, Clear Lake, Clayton, Star Prairie and
  Forest.

LAT...LON 4540 9216 4517 9216 4512 9215 4512 9213
      4492 9214 4493 9262 4540 9263

CTG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
625 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     Rain             3 NNW Hammond           45.01N 92.45W
07/03/2023  M2.13 inch       St. Croix          WI   Trained Spotter

            1-hour rainfall total.

&&

CTG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
630 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     Hail             2 N Taylors Falls       45.44N 92.66W
07/03/2023  E0.88 inch       Chisago            MN   Trained Spotter

&&

NDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
631 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

WIZ024>026-040030-
Pierce WI-Dunn WI-Pepin WI-
631 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Pepin,
northeastern Pierce and southwestern Dunn Counties through 730 PM
CDT...

At 630 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elmwood, or 16 miles southwest of Menomonie, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Eau Galle around 645 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4460 9183 4460 9217 4485 9221 4486 9213
      4486 9185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 246DEG 13KT 4472 9211

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CTG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
835 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     Hail             Hastings                44.74N 92.85W
07/03/2023  E1.00 inch       Dakota             MN   Public

            Photo of hail compared to quarter.

&&

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
842 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

MNZ070-040245-
Dakota MN-
842 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Dakota County
through 945 PM CDT...

At 842 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rosemount, or 17 miles northeast of Northfield, moving southeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Dakota County,
including the following locations... Coates, Vermillion, Miesville,
Hampton, Lake Byllesby, Randolph and New Trier.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4472 9328 4481 9301 4477 9301 4477 9288
      4475 9285 4473 9276 4471 9273 4463 9273
      4462 9280 4454 9279 4454 9291 4451 9295
      4452 9304 4447 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 315DEG 12KT 4469 9303

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CTG