Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR
448 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 336 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

Showers and thunderstorms are developing over the Mid South as a
warm front surges northward over the region. Strong to severe
storms will be possible along and south of I-40 this evening. Low pressure
will develop along the front Thursday night. As the low moves
east, more thunderstorms are expected with tornadoes, large hail
and damaging winds possible. Locally heavy rainfall is also
possible today and Thursday. Dry and cooler weather is expected
for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

A multi-day severe weather and heavy rainfall event is poised to
impact the Mid South starting tonight through Friday morning.
There will be multiple rounds of severe storms and heavy rainfall
across the region. A warm front is surging northward and this
boundary will dictate how far north the severe weather threat gets
for tonight. A Tornado Watch is in effect for areas along and
south of I-40 this evening through 10PM. All modes of severe
weather will be possible tonight, but the main threats will be
large hail, heavy rain, and damaging winds. Tornadoes may be
possible, but the greater threat for tornadoes looks to come on
Thursday with a potent low that will move through the Mid South.
Storms will move through tonight and we should see a break on
Thursday morning. A secondary warm front will move through the
region Thursday afternoon, and a few storms will be possible along
that front. Then we move into the prime time for the severe
weather threat for the Mid South Thursday night into Friday
morning. A QLCS should move through Thursday night with all modes
of severe weather possible into Friday morning. One thing to point
out is that winds will be strong outside of the thunderstorms
Thursday night through Friday afternoon. A Wind Advisory will be
needed for this time period. Another thing to remember is the
flood threat for the area. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the
entire area through Friday. 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected
tonight and an additional 2 to 4 inches could be possible Thursday
night into Friday. Soils are already saturated and will lead to
runoff quickly. So combine the rain and 50 MPH wind gusts...trees
and powerlines could come down. Everyone in the Mid South should
stay weather aware now through Friday.

The front will push through Friday morning ushering in cooler air.
Temperatures will return back to near normal for Friday night through
Saturday night. As high pressure moves east of the Mid- South on
Sunday, temperatures will warm up for Sunday and Monday. A cold
front will approach the region from the north Monday night and
Tuesday with a few showers expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 336 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

MVFR ceilings are noted across much of the forecast area late this
morning, with showers approaching from the SSW. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are forecast late this evening and into the
overnight hours. Severe weather is expected to return by Thursday
late morning/early afternoon, with the highest potential hazards
expected late Thursday night. Southerly winds are expected to
continue through the overnight hours, becoming more NNEerly by
Thursday morning.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for MOZ113-115.

MS...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...MJH
AVIATION...MJH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
Issued by National Weather Service Nashville TN
525 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

MSZ001>003-TNZ088-089-012345-
Marshall MS-DeSoto MS-Benton MS-Fayette TN-Shelby TN-
525 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern DeSoto,
northwestern Marshall, northwestern Benton, southern Fayette and
southeastern Shelby Counties through 545 PM CST...

At 525 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Olive Branch, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Southaven, Collierville, Germantown, Olive Branch, Memphis,
Somerville, Mt Pleasant, Southeast Memphis, Michigan City, Slayden,
Macon, Piperton, Rossville, Moscow, Williston, La Grange, Cayce,
Cedarview, Handy Corner and Capleville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for northeastern
and northwestern Mississippi...and west Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 8994 3505 9000 3524 8929 3498 8920
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 255DEG 40KT 3499 8988

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
Issued by National Weather Service Nashville TN
541 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

ARZ036-049-MSZ001-007-008-020000-
Lee AR-Crittenden AR-Tunica MS-DeSoto MS-Tate MS-
541 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Lee,
south central Crittenden, western DeSoto, northern Tunica and
northwestern Tate Counties through 600 PM CST...

At 541 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brickeys, or 10 miles south of Hughes, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tunica, Horseshoe Lake, Pinckney, Lake Cormorant, Phillipp, Brickeys,
North Tunica, Arkabutla, Robinsonville, Newport, Clack, Trinity,
Commerce, Peters, Council, Prichard, Bruins, Beck, Diamond Woods and
Banks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for eastern
Arkansas...northwestern Mississippi...and west Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3491 9048 3490 9041 3493 9041 3500 9020
      3500 9019 3463 9011 3469 9056 3487 9059
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 261DEG 47KT 3480 9048

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
Issued by National Weather Service Nashville TN
559 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

ARZ036-MSZ001-007-020015-
Crittenden AR-Tunica MS-DeSoto MS-
559 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Crittenden, central DeSoto and northeastern Tunica Counties through
615 PM CST...

At 559 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Eudora, or 9 miles southwest of Horn Lake, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southaven, Olive Branch, Horn Lake, Hernando, Walls, Horseshoe Lake,
Lake Cormorant, Lynchburg, Eudora, Robinsonville, Newport, Clack,
Trinity, Frees Corners, Bright, Nesbit, Glover, Banks, Jago and
Robinson Gin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for eastern
Arkansas...northwestern Mississippi...and west Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3494 9035 3500 8991 3499 8987 3478 8987
      3479 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 261DEG 48KT 3488 9016

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
Issued by National Weather Service Nashville TN
603 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

MSZ001-002-TNZ088-089-020030-
Marshall MS-DeSoto MS-Fayette TN-Shelby TN-
603 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central DeSoto,
northwestern Marshall, southwestern Fayette and southeastern Shelby
Counties through 630 PM CST...

At 603 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Byhalia, or 8 miles southeast of Olive Branch, moving northeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Collierville, Olive Branch, Byhalia, Mt Pleasant, Lewisburg, Red
Banks, Slayden, Piperton, Rossville, Coal Oil Corner, Cayce,
Fairhaven, Elba, Victoria, Cockrum, Watson, Cedarview, Handy Corner,
Taska and Miller.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for northwestern
Mississippi...and west Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 8954 3493 8936 3477 8972 3477 8981
      3488 8987
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 235DEG 39KT 3488 8973

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

PWB