River Flood Warning 21, NWS Memphis, TN

511 
WGUS84 KMEG 030255
FLSMEG

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR
855 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Town Creek at Tupelo affecting Lee County.

MSC081-030400-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-230303T0255Z/
/TPOM6.1.ER.230302T1334Z.230302T1800Z.230303T0118Z.NO/
855 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Town Creek at Tupelo.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:15 AM CST Thursday the stage was 22.3 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:15 AM CST Thursday was 22.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 22.5
    feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage this
    evening.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3445 8884 3445 8862 3410 8861 3410 8867
      3421 8884


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR
529 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

A low pressure system will develop over the southern Plains today
and track across Arkansas tonight. This low will drag a cold front
through the Mid-South late tonight and into Friday morning. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front. Some of
the thunderstorms could be severe with tornadoes, large hail and
damaging winds possible. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected.
Dry and cooler weather is expected for Friday night through Sunday
morning. Temperatures will warm back to above normal levels for
Sunday and Monday. Another cold front will bring more rain to the
region for Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

Skies remain cloudy across the Mid-South early this morning with
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Showers and a
few thunderstorms continue to move across southern sections of the
region. Currently, a cold front extends from northeast Kentucky
through northeast Arkansas and into north Texas.

Low pressure is expected to develop along the cold front across
north Texas later this morning and eventually track east along the
front. With the cold front remaining over the region today,
additional showers and thunderstorms will develop and move across
the Mid-South today. Temperatures will remain above normal today
with highs in the low to mid 60s behind the front to the lower
70s ahead of the front.

The low will track northeast from northeast Texas to the Missouri
bootheel tonight. This low will enhance the thunderstorms that
develop tonight. As a result, severe thunderstorms are expected
mainly for areas along and south of the cold front. Tornadoes,
large hail and damaging winds are possible. Locally heavy rainfall
is also expected and so the Flood Watch continues for the entire
region. In additional, windy conditions will develop outside of
the thunderstorms that form so a Wind Advisory will be in effect
starting at midnight tonight.

The low pressure system will continue to move northeast on Friday
and into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms should be out of the
region by Friday afternoon and so the Flood Watch will now end at
noon on Friday. Windy conditions should continue after the low
pressure system exits the region so the Wind Advisory will
continue until 6 PM Friday evening. Temperatures will turn cooler
on Friday with highs from the lower 60s to lower 70s.

High pressure will start to build into the region Friday night
with dry weather and colder temperatures. By Saturday morning,
many locations across northern sections of the Mid-South will see
temperatures in the upper 30s so there could be some patchy areas
of frost developing. Saturday will see continued dry weather with
temperatures running close to normal.

By Sunday, winds will become more southerly which will allow
temperatures to warm back up to above normal readings which will
continue into Monday. Another cold front will move into the region
from the north Monday night and Tuesday before stalling out across
central Mississippi Wednesday morning. The front will produce some
scattered showers across the region for Monday night through
Wednesday. Temperatures will remain above normal on Tuesday and
cool off some behind the front on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

A large area of showers and thunderstorms covers much of north
Mississippi this morning. Expect this area to continue for much of
the day before expanding north across the entire Mid-South for
tonight and into early Friday morning. Ceilings will be mainly
IFR/MVFR for most of the day with some periods of LIFR ceilings
in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Winds will be mainly from the
south at 5 to 10 knots today ahead of a cold front and northeast
at 10 to 15 knots behind the front. By this evening winds will be
mainly from the southeast at 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25
knots with higher gusts overnight. Low level wind shear will be
possible overnight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday for
     ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for MOZ113-115.

     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday for
     MOZ113-115.

MS...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for MSZ001>017-020>024.

     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday for
     MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday for
     TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...ARS