Alert archive / Texas / Red Flag Warnings in 2023

Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

February 28, 202324 counties in Texas; 5 counties in New Mexico

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this red flag warning at Feb 28, 2023, 4:43 PM CST for 24 counties in Texas; 5 counties in New Mexico. It took effect at Mar 1, 2023, 11:00 AM CST. It was in force for 34 hr. 27 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Feb 28, 2023, 4:43 PM CST (22:43 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 1, 2023, 11:00 AM CST
Expired
Mar 2, 2023, 9:00 PM CST
In force
34 hr
Issued by
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
All 29 counties

Chaves County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Otero County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Brewster County, TX, Crane County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Mar 1, 12:38 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 613 Nnw Pine Springs, TXAT THE BOWL RAWS.
Mar 1, 2:19 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 714 S Pine Springs, TXAT GDP ASOS.
Mar 2, 11:53 AM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 715 Sw Carlsbad, NM
Mar 2, 12:38 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 633 Nnw Pine Springs, TXRAWS STATION GDBT2 THE BOWL.
Mar 2, 12:41 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 613 Ene Van Horn, TX
Mar 2, 12:55 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 595 N Presidio, TX
Mar 2, 1:17 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 632 Nw Fort Stockton, TX
Mar 2, 1:20 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 582 N Coyanosa, TX
Mar 2, 1:29 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 58Castolon, TX
Mar 2, 1:34 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 895 S Pine Springs, TXGUADALUPE PASS ASOS.
Mar 2, 1:35 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 612 Sw Pecos, TX
Mar 2, 2:01 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 591 Ssw Mccamey, TX
Mar 2, 2:32 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 635 Ne Odessa, TX
Mar 2, 2:42 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 592 E Andrews, TX
Mar 2, 2:57 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 581 Nnw Crane, TX
Mar 2, 3:00 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND DMG4 Ne Odessa, TXLIGHT POLE BLOWN OVER ONTO VEHICLE AT LOOP 338 AND 52ND ST.
Mar 2, 3:04 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 605 W Dryden, TX
Mar 2, 3:18 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 703 N Marfa, TX
Mar 2, 3:40 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 638 Sw Midland Internatio, TX
Mar 2, 3:55 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 631 W Big Lake, TX
Mar 2, 3:57 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 641 Wnw Big Lake, TX
Mar 2, 4:19 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 675 Sw Saint Lawrence, TX
Mar 2, 4:49 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 6219 Sw Marathon, TXRAWS STATION EMNT2 ELEPHANT MTN WMA.
Mar 2, 4:49 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 6219 Sw Marathon, TXCORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM 19 SW MARATHON. RAWS STATION EMNT2 ELEPHANT MTN WMA.
Mar 2, 5:02 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 72Pine Springs, TX
Mar 2, 5:53 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 613 Nw Wink, TX
Mar 2, 7:58 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 797 Wsw Mcdonald Observat, TXRAWS STATION WDPT2 WOLF DEN DMP.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 66 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2023-02-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2023-02-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 37 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
3869 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
80 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
37 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
160 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

498 
WWUS84 KMAF 282243
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
443 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 20-FT WIND OF 20 MPH OR GREATER,
AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, 
UPPER TRANS PECOS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND THE DAVIS 
MOUNTAINS...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 20-FT WIND OF
20 MPH OR GREATER, AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF
THE PERMIAN BASIN, UPPER TRANS PECOS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...

NMZ116>119-TXZ045>048-050>052-059>062-067-270-271-273-274-277-278-
011045-
/O.UPG.KMAF.FW.A.0005.230301T1700Z-230302T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.W.0008.230301T1700Z-230302T0200Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-230301T0100Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Ward-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
443 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 /343 PM MST Tue Feb 28 2023/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/
THIS EVENING FOR WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS AND HIGH TO 
EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST 
TEXAS... 

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ 
TO 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR WARM, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

* TIMING...Until 7 PM CST/6 PM MST this evening, and again from
  late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* WINDS...Today, southwest 25 to 35 with gusts to 40 to 55 mph
  across the plains, and west 40 to 50 with gusts to 65 mph in the
  Guadalupe Mountains. On Wednesday, southwest winds 25 to 40 mph
  with gusts to 45 to 65 mph across the plains, and west winds 45
  to 65 mph with gusts to 65 to 75 mph in the mountains.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 5 percent today and Wednesday.

* RFTI...5 to 8 or critical to extreme.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions may have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Ensure 
  that chains attached to trailers will not touch the pavement, 
  thereby eliminating the possibility to generate sparks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

TXZ068-075-082-272-275-276-279>282-011045-
/O.UPG.KMAF.FW.A.0005.230301T1700Z-230302T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.W.0008.230301T1700Z-230302T0200Z/
Crane-Pecos-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Central Brewster County-
Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
443 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ 
TO 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR WARM, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

* TIMING...Late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph across the 
  lower elevations, and 35 to 55 with gusts to 75 mph across 
  higher elevations.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 6 percent.

* RFTI...5 to 8 or critical to extreme.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions may have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Ensure 
  that chains attached to trailers will not touch the pavement, 
  thereby eliminating the possibility to generate sparks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

TXZ053-063-069-070-011045-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.W.0008.230301T1700Z-230302T0200Z/
Mitchell-Glasscock-Upton-Reagan-
443 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ 
TO 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR WARM, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

* TIMING...Late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 with gusts to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 9 percent.

* RFTI...3 or near critical.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions may have the potential
  to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Ensure that 
  chains attached to trailers will not touch the pavement, thereby
  eliminating the possibility to generate sparks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$
5 follow-up statements
389 
WWUS84 KMAF 010144
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
744 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ TO 8 PM 
CST /7 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, 
20-FT WIND OF 20 MPH OR GREATER, AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER 
FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

NMZ116>119-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-270>282-
011345-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0008.230301T1700Z-230302T0200Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-
Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-
Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Lower Brewster County-
744 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 /644 PM MST Tue Feb 28 2023/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/
TO 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR WARM, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

* TIMING...From late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest winds 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 35 to 65 mph
  across the plains, and west winds 45 to 65 mph with gusts to 65
  to 75 mph in the mountains.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 5 percent.

* RFTI...3 to 8 or near critical to extreme.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions may have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Ensure 
  that chains attached to trailers will not touch the pavement, 
  thereby eliminating the possibility to generate sparks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$
885 
WWUS84 KMAF 010912
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
312 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ 
TO 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ TODAY FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10% OR 
LESS, 20-FT WIND OF 20 MPH OR GREATER, AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE 
DANGER FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR 20-FT WIND OF 20 MPH OR GREATER, RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY OF 20% OR LESS AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR ALL 
OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

NMZ116>119-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-270>282-
012000-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.A.0006.230302T1500Z-230303T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0008.230301T1700Z-230302T0200Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-
Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-
Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Lower Brewster County-
312 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2023 /212 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2023/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ 
TO 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ TODAY FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10% OR 
LESS, 20-FT WIND OF 20 MPH OR GREATER, AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE 
DANGER FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR 20-FT WIND OF 20 MPH OR GREATER, RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY OF 20% OR LESS AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

* AFFECTED AREA...All of southeast New Mexico and West Texas.

* TIMING...For the warning, 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ TO 8 PM CST /7
  PM MST/ today. For the watch, late Thursday morning through
  Thursday evening.

* WINDS...Today, southwest 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph,
  highest winds in the mountains. Thursday, west 30 to 55 mph with
  gusts to 70 mph, highest winds in the mountains. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 8 percent today. As low as 10 
  percent on Thursday.

* RFTI...4 or near critical to 7 or extreme.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions may have the potential
  to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Ensure that chains
  attached to trailers will not touch the pavement, thereby 
  eliminating the possibility to generate sparks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$
406 
WWUS84 KMAF 012100
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
300 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10% OR LESS, 20-FT WIND OF 20 MPH OR GREATER,
AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO 
AND WEST TEXAS...

NMZ116>119-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-270>282-
020900-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FW.A.0006.230302T1500Z-230303T0300Z/
/O.EXT.KMAF.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-230303T0300Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-
Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-
Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Lower Brewster County-
300 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023 /200 PM MST Wed Mar 1 2023/

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10% OR LESS, 20-FT WIND OF 20 MPH OR GREATER,
AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO 
AND WEST TEXAS...

* TIMING...Through Thursday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph in the
  plains and lower elevations. Winds much higher in the mountains.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 5 percent.

* RFTI...6 or critical across much of the region. 7 to 8 or
  extreme across the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions may have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Ensure 
  that chains attached to trailers will not touch the pavement, 
  thereby eliminating the possibility to generate sparks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$
602 
WWUS84 KMAF 020909
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
309 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10% OR LESS, 20-FT WIND OF 20 MPH OR GREATER,
AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO 
AND WEST TEXAS...

NMZ116>119-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-270>282-
022100-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-230303T0300Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-
Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-
Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Lower Brewster County-
309 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 /209 AM MST Thu Mar 2 2023/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
THIS EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10% OR LESS, 20-FT WIND OF
20 MPH OR GREATER, AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

* TIMING...Until 9 PM CST/8 PM MST this evening.

* WINDS...West 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph in the plains.
  West 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 80 mph in the mountains.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 6 percent.

* RFTI...4 or near critical to 6 or critical across much of the 
  region. 7 to 8 or extreme across the Lower Trans Pecos and Big 
  Bend.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions may have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Ensure 
  that chains attached to trailers will not touch the pavement, 
  thereby eliminating the possibility to generate sparks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$
991 
WWUS84 KMAF 021943
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
143 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10% OR LESS, 20-FT WIND OF 20 MPH OR
GREATER, AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

NMZ116>119-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-270>282-
030300-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-230303T0300Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-
Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-
Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Lower Brewster County-
143 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 /1243 PM MST Thu Mar 2 2023/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
THIS EVENING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10% OR LESS, 20-FT WIND OF
20 MPH OR GREATER, AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

* TIMING...Until 9 PM CST/8 PM MST this evening.

* WINDS...West 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 5 percent.

* RFTI...6 to 8 or critical to extreme.

* IMPACTS...Avoid the use of open flames or any activities that 
  may generate sparks. Accidental ignitions may have the 
  potential to grow into dangerous wind-driven wildfires. Ensure 
  that chains attached to trailers will not touch the pavement, 
  thereby eliminating the possibility to generate sparks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Feb 28, 2:43 PM CST, 2 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 2:43 PM CST, 2 hours before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
243 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

***Increasing Winds Ahead of A Significant Wind Event Thursday***

Brisk flow of 65-75kts at 500mb is present between the subtropical
ridge in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico and a trough digging through
California. After a brief break behind the previous high wind
event, even today's jet overhead supports a mountain wave signature
over the Guadalupes, where high winds are expected later this
afternoon with just breezy conditions across the Plains. As the
western trough continues to swing into the Desert Southwest
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, the height gradient
continues to strengthen, favoring stronger winds. These increased
winds will primarily be focused the western Permian Basin and west
of the Pecos, and we've issued High Wind Warnings for the mountains
and Wind Advisories for the adjacent plains tomorrow. This westerly
downsloping helps favor warmer and drier weather, when combined with
the strong winds, continues to yield critical fire conditions. See
the Fire Weather Discussion below for more details.

Aside from the wind and fire weather, the short term remains quite
warm for late February, with highs on Wednesday afternoon in the 70s
and 80s with a few 90s possible along the Rio Grande. Despite the
stronger downslope component tomorrow, more high clouds will fight
off some warming, perhaps making us a tad cooler than today. Tonight
stays fairly mild with wind and high clouds keeping lows in the 40s
and 50s. Cooler air begins to push in from the west ahead of the
approaching trough, dropping lows into the low to mid 30s while 40s
and 50s persist further east.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

Strong upper low swinging across the center of W TX Thursday will
bring very windy conditions to the region.  This low will move east
Thursday night as high pressure begins to build in from the west
and continues through the weekend.

Have earth... wind... and fire in the forecast.  Have various High
Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories this afternoon through Thursday
evening but especially for the mountains.  The upper low will spin
up a surface low over the Panhandle and drive a Pacific front
through the area Thursday.  High wind will result in blowing dust
Thursday and looks similar to last Sunday when had a gust to 103.5
mph at the mesonet station in the Guadalupe Mountains. Could see
gusts up to 100 mph in the Guadalupe Mountains again Thursday.

High temperatures will be cooling W to E with the front Thursday
with highs in the 50s west to 70s east.  Morning lows Friday will be
chilly with readings falling below freezing across the northern and
across the higher elevations out west. Highs will mainly be in the
60s Friday and Saturday warming into the 70s Sunday.  Monday and
Tuesday will be warmer.

Models throw a little light snow in the Guadalupe Mountains early
Thursday with precip just making into the western edge of the area
with a rain/snow mix south of there but expecting no accumulation.
Precip chances will quickly end as dust takes over Thursday. Rest of
forecast dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

VFR continues throughout the period with increasing high clouds.
West-southwesterly winds have been picking up in the last few
hours, and will remain at 15-20kts with gusts to 25-30kts though
the afternoon at most terminals. Gusts subside after sunset, with
winds staying fairly light out of the west tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

Currently have a Red Flag warning in effect into this evening for
the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns eastward across much of the Trans Pecos
and Permian Basin.  Also have a Fire Wx Watch in effect Wednesday
for most of the region.  Thursday will be a littler tricky for fire
wx... will definitely have the wind but RH expected to increase
behind the Pacific front as it moves from W to E.  However if like
last event could have a few hours with very low RH behind the
dryline and before front arrives.

Looking at very windy conditions next few days with High Wind
Warnings and Wind Advisories in effect... this will create dangerous
fire wx conditions.  Blown down power lines will be a concern for
fire starts Wednesday and Thursday.  RFTI of 6 to 9 Wednesday and
high ERC with models giving lower values Thursday except closer to
the Rio Grande. Fire conditions improve Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               79  48  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 73  44  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   83  55  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            81  48  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           64  45  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    72  44  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    75  41  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     78  48  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   77  49  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     78  45  77  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Borden-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ Thursday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-
     Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-
     Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for Eastern Culberson
     County.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM Wednesday to midnight CST Thursday
     night for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos
     Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern
     Culberson County-Marfa Plateau.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Wednesday for Andrews-Gaines-
     Loving-Lower Brewster County-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County Plains-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Martin-Midland-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Terrell-Upton-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 8 AM Wednesday to 11 PM MST Thursday for
     Eddy County Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for Central Lea
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     evening for Central Lea County-Northern Lea County-Southern
     Lea County.

&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...16
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 28, 4:24 PM CST, 19 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
424 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-012230-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
424 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 /324 PM MST Tue Feb 28 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains through Thursday.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect through this evening for Southeast
New Mexico and much of West Texas, including the Davis Mountains.

A Wind Advisory is in effect through this evening for the Eddy
County plains and eastern Culberson County.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A High Wind Warning is in effect through Thursday evening for the
Guadalupe, Delaware Mountains, and Davis Mountains.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for critical to extreme fire weather
conditions late Wednesday morning through early Wednesday evening
for Southeast New Mexico and West Texas.

A High Wind Watch is in effect Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for the Southeast New Mexico plains and most of West Texas.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected again Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 3:02 AM CSTFire Weather WatchMAFAndrews, Borden, Brewster, Crane, Culberson, Dawson and 14 more14 hr
Feb 28, 3:30 AM CSTHigh Wind WatchMAFAndrews, Borden, Brewster, Crane, Culberson, Dawson and 18 more35 hr
Feb 28, 3:30 AM CSTWind AdvisoryMAFCulberson16 hr
Feb 28, 2:17 PM CSTWind AdvisoryMAFAndrews, Brewster, Culberson, Gaines, Jeff Davis, Loving and 6 more31 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Texas, 2023Red Flag Warnings in New Mexico, 2023Every red flag warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.