High Wind Watch 14, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Brewster County, TX, Crane County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1024 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

West-southwest quasi-zonal flow aloft continues through mid-week
consistently at 60-70kts at 500mb. A weak to marginal mountain wave
signature develops each afternoon in the Guadalupes in this setup,
with a High Wind Warning currently in effect for today here and the
Davis'. High winds each afternoon continue into Wednesday ahead of
another widespread wind event Thursday, so we've opted to place the
Guadalupe Mountains in a long-fuse High Wind Warning from
late Tuesday morning through Thursday evening.

Otherwise, weather remains fairly quiescent today and tomorrow,
though will be a bit more breezy tomorrow. Lows tonight and tomorrow
night fall into the 30s and 40s. Some stronger downslope wind
components tomorrow help push high temperatures into the 70s and mid-
80s. With persistent westerly surface flow, it will be quite dry
today and even drier tomorrow, resulting in critical fire weather
each afternoon as well. See the Fire Weather Discussion below for
more details.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

 * Damaging Winds Areawide Thursday*

The extended forecast starts off fairly quiet Wednesday before a
major storm system arrives Thursday with more damaging winds and
critical fire weather conditions. Southwesterly flow aloft will
continue over the area with a nearly continuous mountain wave across
the Guadalupe Mountains. This translates to another long-fused high
wind event that will drag through Thursday. A backdoor cold front
looks to sneak into the Permian Basin early Wednesday, but will
likely wash out and as deep mixing occurs by afternoon. Temperatures
will remain well above normal with breezy southwest winds once again
during the afternoon. This will lead to increased fire weather
concerns, especially across the western half of the area. See the
Fire Wx discussion below.

Attention then turns to a potent upper storm system over the Desert
SW that will high-tail our way by Thursday. This system has many
similarities to Sunday's storm when it comes to wind. The upper
trough will plow across the CWA during the day Thursday bringing
with it damaging winds and widespread blowing dust once again. Winds
will strengthen during the late morning hours ahead of a powerful
Pacific cold front. Wind gusts behind this front could reach upward
of 60 to 70 mph across a large part of the area, including areas
south of I-10 who largely missed the last wind event. A High Wind
Watch is likely to be issued for much if not the entire forecast
area over the next day. Enough mid level moisture and cold air will
be present across the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of SE NM to
bring a rain/snow mix, but a warm ground and low QPF amounts will
keep any impacts low. A chilly Pacific airmass will fill in behind
the front, but very dry air combined with the winds will still
promote critical fire weather conditions for much of the area.

We end the week with much calmer conditions and temperatures below
normal following another cold front Saturday. Warm and dry
conditions return early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1021 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

VFR conditions remain prevailing. West winds have largely weakened
across the area and will remain light. Winds with gusts return
earlier tomorrow afternoon with the exception of FST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

Gusty winds will continue across the higher terrain and adjacent
plains through the rest of the afternoon. RH's have fallen to near
10 percent so we are seeing solid critical fire weather
conditions.

A large scale trough to our west will promote southwesterly flow
aloft through Thursday. Lee surface troughing will lead to mostly
a west wind across the area keeping the dryline to our east. Gusty
winds again Tuesday afternoon along with very dry air will likely
lead to more critical fire weather conditions, mainly over the NW
half of the area. A Red Flag Warning has been issued. The worst of
the weather will peak Wednesday into Thursday with yet another
potent synoptic storm set to arrive. Very warm, dry conditions
along with gusty winds Wednesday will lead to locally extreme
RFTIs, especially across the northern Permian Basin, SE NM, and
areas west of the Pecos River. By Thursday, the big even arrives
and looks similar to Sunday. The difference is more widespread
with wind gusts >60 mph are likely across much of the region. The
strongest winds are expected behind a Pacific front with
temperatures cooling during the afternoon. Very dry air will still
mix in behind the front and combine with the intense winds to
produce widespread critical fire weather conditions. We could also
see starts due to power lines snapping or sparking. Fuels have
been stable over the past couple months maintaining near normal
moisture. Yesterday may have pushed us into the dry category and
with little recovery over the next few days, it won't take much to
produce at least moderate IA activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               41  78  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 39  72  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   47  85  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            44  82  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           40  63  42  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    39  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    35  76  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     41  77  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   43  77  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     38  78  42  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Tuesday to 9 PM CST
     /8 PM MST/ Thursday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ to 7 PM CST /6 PM
     MST/ Tuesday for Andrews-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Loving-Reeves County Plains-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning from 8 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MST Thursday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Tuesday for Chaves
     Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...91

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1030 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-010430-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
1030 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 /930 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A High Wind Warning is in effect Tuesday through Thursday evening
for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Damaging wind is likely
areawide Thursday.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday through at
least Thursday, especially over Southeast New Mexico and the higher
terrain of West Texas. A Red Flag Warning is in effect Tuesday
afternoon for Southeast New Mexico, Northwest Texas, and the Davis
Mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland