Tornado Warning 9, NWS Lubbock, TX

381 
WWUS54 KLUB 220203
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
903 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

TXC101-125-269-220300-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230622T0300Z/
Dickens TX-King TX-Cottle TX-
903 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
DICKENS...SOUTHWESTERN KING AND SOUTHWESTERN COTTLE COUNTIES...
    
At 902 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located 9 miles southeast of Afton, or 9 miles northeast of Dickens,
moving south at 20 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may 
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes 
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, 
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction 
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dumont and Afton. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. take
immediate tornado precautions. this is an emergency situation.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 10068 3340 10071 3383 10084 3384 10052
      3348 10035
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 347DEG 19KT 3369 10069 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN

$$

26

808 
WWUS54 KLUB 220210
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
910 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

TXC101-125-269-220300-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230622T0300Z/
Dickens TX-King TX-Cottle TX-
910 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
DICKENS...SOUTHWESTERN KING AND SOUTHWESTERN COTTLE COUNTIES...
    
At 910 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located 11 miles east of Dickens, moving southeast at 25 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may 
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes 
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, 
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction 
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dumont and Afton. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3340 10068 3340 10071 3383 10084 3384 10052
      3348 10035
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 337DEG 21KT 3365 10064 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN

$$

26

912 
WWUS54 KLUB 220216
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
916 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

TXC101-125-269-220300-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230622T0300Z/
Dickens TX-King TX-Cottle TX-
916 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
DICKENS...SOUTHWESTERN KING AND SOUTHWESTERN COTTLE COUNTIES...
    
At 914 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 11 miles east of 
Dickens, moving southeast at 25 mph.  Travelers should avoid highway 
82 between Dickens and Guthrie.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and baseball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Dumont and Afton. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3340 10068 3340 10071 3383 10084 3384 10052
      3348 10035
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 337DEG 21KT 3363 10063 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN

$$

26

021 
WWUS54 KLUB 220224
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
924 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

TXC101-125-269-220300-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230622T0300Z/
Dickens TX-King TX-Cottle TX-
924 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
DICKENS...SOUTHWESTERN KING AND SOUTHWESTERN COTTLE COUNTIES...
    
At 923 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 13 miles north of 
Girard, or 14 miles east of Dickens, moving south at 35 mph. A 
second confirmed tornado was located about 5 miles east southeast of 
Dickens in rural Dickens county.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and baseball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Dumont and Afton. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3340 10068 3340 10071 3383 10084 3384 10052
      3348 10035
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 347DEG 29KT 3355 10059 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN

$$

26

191 
WWUS54 KLUB 220227 RRA
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
927 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

TXC101-220237-
/O.CAN.KLUB.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230622T0300Z/
Cottle TX-
927 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN COTTLE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northwestern
Texas.

LAT...LON 3340 10068 3340 10071 3367 10079 3371 10049
      3348 10035
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 338DEG 21KT 3353 10058 

$$

TXC125-269-220300-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230622T0300Z/
Dickens TX-King TX-
927 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN DICKENS AND SOUTHWESTERN KING COUNTIES...
    
At 927 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 12 miles northeast of 
Girard, or 16 miles southeast of Dickens, moving south at 25 mph.  A 
second tornadic circulation is located 6 miles ESE of Dickens.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and baseball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Dickens and southwestern King Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3340 10068 3340 10071 3367 10079 3371 10049
      3348 10035
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 338DEG 21KT 3353 10058 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN

$$

26

984 
WWUS54 KLUB 220235
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
935 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

TXC125-269-220300-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230622T0300Z/
Dickens TX-King TX-
935 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN DICKENS AND SOUTHWESTERN KING COUNTIES...
    
At 934 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 10 miles northeast of 
Girard, or 16 miles north of Jayton, moving south at 25 mph.  Storm 
organization looks to have decreased somewhat in the past 10 minutes 
but the threat of a tornado remains.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and baseball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Dickens and southwestern King Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3340 10068 3340 10071 3367 10079 3371 10049
      3348 10035
TIME...MOT...LOC 0234Z 338DEG 21KT 3349 10056 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN

$$

26

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
640 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Ridging continues to persist over the Central U.S. A MCS dissipated
across Oklahoma earlier this morning dragging an outflow boundary
southward across the Texas Panhandle. Expected interaction between
the outflow and a dryline that stretches from Amarillo to Lake Alan
Henry appears to be the best focus for convective initiation later
this afternoon and evening. Unseasonably high dewpoints in the upper
70s are dominating the moist sector with a sharp gradient noted to
the west of the dryline. Model guidance suggests forcing from the
dryline may be enough to break the cap and initiate convection by
late afternoon in the eastern South Plains/ western Rolling Plains
where moisture advection has been maximized. 50 kt westerly winds
aloft with nearly 20 kt southeasterly winds at the surface in the
east of our CWA indicate enough shear to support organized
thunderstorms. Ample CAPE too is available for intense storms to
develop if the cap is broken which is still suggested in most
model soundings. Softball sized hail and 80mph winds remain the
main threats. A tornadoes or two cannot be ruled out with the
stronger activity particularly in the extreme southeastern Texas
Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains.

Once storms have moved out of our CWA overnight, tomorrow morning
should remain fairly tranquil.  Continuing on the pattern of this
morning, with RH values near 100% across the Rolling Plains, have
made mention of patchy fog.  At this point, I don't anticipate dense
fog unless we get quite substantive rainfalls and cooler advect. ion
in the wake of the convective activity. For tomorrow, we are
advertising somewhat cooler temperatures than today (closer to the
century mark in areas where we are seeing 105-109 this afternoon)
thanks to a 20 or so meters in height falls though the past two days
have seen some surprises with highs. Still, trended Max T values
toward the high side of guidance based on these trends.  A bigger
question is the prospect for thunderstorm activity again in our
eastern counties on Thursday afternoon.  With the cooler
temperatures, and no substantive cooling aloft, one would expect
less precipitation opportunity than today though forecast soundings
do hint at an environment close to CI.  A stout capping inversion
appears to remain in place up near CDS with some degree of an EML
indicated.  This looks to be a stretch, but airmass modification
with top-down moistening may be the mechanism that provides such an
opportunity.  Confidence in storm development in the east is meager
at best and areas west of the escarpment should remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Very hot temperatures will remain the focus of the forecast period
as a strong upper level high is progged to expand northward this
weekend, becoming centered near the Big Bend on Sunday, toward
northwest Texas on Tuesday, and then toward the Metroplex on
Wednesday. Through the his period, the expansive ridge will extend
from Arizona to Louisiana while heights consistently range from 594
to 597 dam at the 500 mb level. This should result in high
temperatures in the Saturday through Wednesday period in a range
mostly from the upper 90s to near 110 again. Before then, late day
and evening thunderstorms will remain a possibility along and east
of the dryline as a series of upper level short wave troughs migrate
through the northern end of the upper ridge and give some support to
the diurnally driven convection. Precip chances will remain low both
days with a slight chance mention sufficing at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Severe thunderstorms will be possible at KCDS this evening as
storms slowly move to the southeast. Large hail, gusty and erratic
winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with any
thunderstorm. Thunderstorms should dissipate by 04z. Late tonight
into early Thursday morning MVFR to IFR ceilings will expand from
north to south and potentially impact all three TAF sites. These
low ceilings should dissipate late tomorrow morning with VFR
conditions expected thereafter.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ034-035-040>042.

&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...58

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

TXZ021>044-221615-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and evening
east of a dryline expected to stall near the edge of the Caprock. If
a strong cap can be overcome, supercell storms are likely and could
produce giant hail to softball size and wind gusts around 80 mph.
Although unlikely, a tornado is also possible.

Additionally, expected temperatures of 105 to 109 this afternoon have
prompted a heat advisory for the southeastern South Plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday during the
afternoon/evening hours, mainly off the Caprock.

Triple-digit heat will return by this weekend and looks to
continue well into next week with potential for heat advisories.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
814 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     Tornado          Matador                 34.02N 100.82W
06/21/2023                   Motley             TX   Law Enforcement

            Damage reported in the city of Matador.

&&

Event Number LUB2300515

jwj

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
820 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     Hail             Matador                 34.02N 100.82W
06/21/2023  E2.75 inch       Motley             TX   Emergency Mngr

            Baseball size hail reported in Matador

&&

Event Number LUB2300516

jwj

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
825 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WSW Turkey            34.38N 100.93W
06/21/2023  M64 mph          Hall               TX   Mesonet

            West Texas Mesonet Report

&&

Event Number LUB2300517

jwj

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
838 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 N Roaring Springs     33.94N 100.85W
06/21/2023  M75 mph          Motley             TX   Mesonet

            West Texas Mesonet Report

&&

Event Number LUB2300518

jwj