Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
640 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Ridging continues to persist over the Central U.S. A MCS dissipated
across Oklahoma earlier this morning dragging an outflow boundary
southward across the Texas Panhandle. Expected interaction between
the outflow and a dryline that stretches from Amarillo to Lake Alan
Henry appears to be the best focus for convective initiation later
this afternoon and evening. Unseasonably high dewpoints in the upper
70s are dominating the moist sector with a sharp gradient noted to
the west of the dryline. Model guidance suggests forcing from the
dryline may be enough to break the cap and initiate convection by
late afternoon in the eastern South Plains/ western Rolling Plains
where moisture advection has been maximized. 50 kt westerly winds
aloft with nearly 20 kt southeasterly winds at the surface in the
east of our CWA indicate enough shear to support organized
thunderstorms. Ample CAPE too is available for intense storms to
develop if the cap is broken which is still suggested in most
model soundings. Softball sized hail and 80mph winds remain the
main threats. A tornadoes or two cannot be ruled out with the
stronger activity particularly in the extreme southeastern Texas
Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains.

Once storms have moved out of our CWA overnight, tomorrow morning
should remain fairly tranquil.  Continuing on the pattern of this
morning, with RH values near 100% across the Rolling Plains, have
made mention of patchy fog.  At this point, I don't anticipate dense
fog unless we get quite substantive rainfalls and cooler advect. ion
in the wake of the convective activity. For tomorrow, we are
advertising somewhat cooler temperatures than today (closer to the
century mark in areas where we are seeing 105-109 this afternoon)
thanks to a 20 or so meters in height falls though the past two days
have seen some surprises with highs. Still, trended Max T values
toward the high side of guidance based on these trends.  A bigger
question is the prospect for thunderstorm activity again in our
eastern counties on Thursday afternoon.  With the cooler
temperatures, and no substantive cooling aloft, one would expect
less precipitation opportunity than today though forecast soundings
do hint at an environment close to CI.  A stout capping inversion
appears to remain in place up near CDS with some degree of an EML
indicated.  This looks to be a stretch, but airmass modification
with top-down moistening may be the mechanism that provides such an
opportunity.  Confidence in storm development in the east is meager
at best and areas west of the escarpment should remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Very hot temperatures will remain the focus of the forecast period
as a strong upper level high is progged to expand northward this
weekend, becoming centered near the Big Bend on Sunday, toward
northwest Texas on Tuesday, and then toward the Metroplex on
Wednesday. Through the his period, the expansive ridge will extend
from Arizona to Louisiana while heights consistently range from 594
to 597 dam at the 500 mb level. This should result in high
temperatures in the Saturday through Wednesday period in a range
mostly from the upper 90s to near 110 again. Before then, late day
and evening thunderstorms will remain a possibility along and east
of the dryline as a series of upper level short wave troughs migrate
through the northern end of the upper ridge and give some support to
the diurnally driven convection. Precip chances will remain low both
days with a slight chance mention sufficing at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Severe thunderstorms will be possible at KCDS this evening as
storms slowly move to the southeast. Large hail, gusty and erratic
winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with any
thunderstorm. Thunderstorms should dissipate by 04z. Late tonight
into early Thursday morning MVFR to IFR ceilings will expand from
north to south and potentially impact all three TAF sites. These
low ceilings should dissipate late tomorrow morning with VFR
conditions expected thereafter.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ034-035-040>042.

&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...58

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

TXZ021>044-221615-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and evening
east of a dryline expected to stall near the edge of the Caprock. If
a strong cap can be overcome, supercell storms are likely and could
produce giant hail to softball size and wind gusts around 80 mph.
Although unlikely, a tornado is also possible.

Additionally, expected temperatures of 105 to 109 this afternoon have
prompted a heat advisory for the southeastern South Plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday during the
afternoon/evening hours, mainly off the Caprock.

Triple-digit heat will return by this weekend and looks to
continue well into next week with potential for heat advisories.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
930 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     Tornado          8 E Dickens             33.62N 100.69W
06/21/2023                   Dickens            TX   Law Enforcement

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
939 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WSW Turkey            34.38N 100.93W
06/21/2023  M64 MPH          Hall               TX   Mesonet

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
941 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 NNW Mcadoo            33.78N 101.04W
06/21/2023  M65 MPH          Dickens            TX   Mesonet

            Mesonet.

&&

AP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
945 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0932 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 W Spur                33.48N 100.88W
06/21/2023  M84 MPH          Dickens            TX   Mesonet

&&

AP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
949 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     10 WSW Guthrie          33.57N 100.48W
06/21/2023  M67 MPH          King               TX   Mesonet

&&

AP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
951 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NNE Roaring Springs   33.94N 100.85W
06/21/2023  M80 MPH          Motley             TX   Mesonet

&&

AP