Tornado Warning 7, NWS Lubbock, TX

060 
WWUS54 KLUB 220058
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
758 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

TXC125-345-220130-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-230622T0130Z/
Dickens TX-Motley TX-
758 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL DICKENS AND SOUTHERN MOTLEY COUNTIES...
    
At 758 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 4 miles north of
Matador, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Matador and Roaring Springs. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3389 10059 3383 10081 3383 10091 3416 10093
      3419 10080
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 342DEG 18KT 3407 10083 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN

$$

26

830 
WWUS54 KLUB 220102
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
802 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

TXC125-345-220130-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-230622T0130Z/
Dickens TX-Motley TX-
802 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL DICKENS AND SOUTHEASTERN MOTLEY COUNTIES...
    
At 802 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Matador, moving
south at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Matador and Roaring Springs. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3389 10059 3383 10081 3383 10091 3412 10092
      3415 10078
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 344DEG 29KT 3403 10083 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN

$$

26

839 
WWUS54 KLUB 220110
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
810 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

TXC125-345-220130-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-230622T0130Z/
Dickens TX-Motley TX-
810 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL DICKENS AND SOUTHEASTERN MOTLEY COUNTIES...
    
At 809 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Matador, moving 
south at 35 mph.  The Sheriffs office reports the tornado is just 
north of the city moving south southeast.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Matador and Roaring Springs. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3389 10059 3383 10081 3383 10091 3406 10088
      3411 10075
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 344DEG 29KT 3397 10081 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN

$$

26

820 
WWUS54 KLUB 220119
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
819 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

TXC125-345-220130-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-230622T0130Z/
Dickens TX-Motley TX-
819 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL DICKENS AND SOUTHEASTERN MOTLEY COUNTIES...
    
At 818 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 6 miles southeast of 
Matador, moving southeast at 20 mph.  Structure damage has been 
reported in the City of Matador.  The tornadic circulation continues 
over rural portions of Motley county east of Roaring Springs.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and baseball size hail.

SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Matador and Roaring Springs. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3389 10059 3383 10081 3383 10091 3398 10088
      3407 10072
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 336DEG 18KT 3393 10076 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN

$$

26

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
640 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Ridging continues to persist over the Central U.S. A MCS dissipated
across Oklahoma earlier this morning dragging an outflow boundary
southward across the Texas Panhandle. Expected interaction between
the outflow and a dryline that stretches from Amarillo to Lake Alan
Henry appears to be the best focus for convective initiation later
this afternoon and evening. Unseasonably high dewpoints in the upper
70s are dominating the moist sector with a sharp gradient noted to
the west of the dryline. Model guidance suggests forcing from the
dryline may be enough to break the cap and initiate convection by
late afternoon in the eastern South Plains/ western Rolling Plains
where moisture advection has been maximized. 50 kt westerly winds
aloft with nearly 20 kt southeasterly winds at the surface in the
east of our CWA indicate enough shear to support organized
thunderstorms. Ample CAPE too is available for intense storms to
develop if the cap is broken which is still suggested in most
model soundings. Softball sized hail and 80mph winds remain the
main threats. A tornadoes or two cannot be ruled out with the
stronger activity particularly in the extreme southeastern Texas
Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains.

Once storms have moved out of our CWA overnight, tomorrow morning
should remain fairly tranquil.  Continuing on the pattern of this
morning, with RH values near 100% across the Rolling Plains, have
made mention of patchy fog.  At this point, I don't anticipate dense
fog unless we get quite substantive rainfalls and cooler advect. ion
in the wake of the convective activity. For tomorrow, we are
advertising somewhat cooler temperatures than today (closer to the
century mark in areas where we are seeing 105-109 this afternoon)
thanks to a 20 or so meters in height falls though the past two days
have seen some surprises with highs. Still, trended Max T values
toward the high side of guidance based on these trends.  A bigger
question is the prospect for thunderstorm activity again in our
eastern counties on Thursday afternoon.  With the cooler
temperatures, and no substantive cooling aloft, one would expect
less precipitation opportunity than today though forecast soundings
do hint at an environment close to CI.  A stout capping inversion
appears to remain in place up near CDS with some degree of an EML
indicated.  This looks to be a stretch, but airmass modification
with top-down moistening may be the mechanism that provides such an
opportunity.  Confidence in storm development in the east is meager
at best and areas west of the escarpment should remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Very hot temperatures will remain the focus of the forecast period
as a strong upper level high is progged to expand northward this
weekend, becoming centered near the Big Bend on Sunday, toward
northwest Texas on Tuesday, and then toward the Metroplex on
Wednesday. Through the his period, the expansive ridge will extend
from Arizona to Louisiana while heights consistently range from 594
to 597 dam at the 500 mb level. This should result in high
temperatures in the Saturday through Wednesday period in a range
mostly from the upper 90s to near 110 again. Before then, late day
and evening thunderstorms will remain a possibility along and east
of the dryline as a series of upper level short wave troughs migrate
through the northern end of the upper ridge and give some support to
the diurnally driven convection. Precip chances will remain low both
days with a slight chance mention sufficing at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Severe thunderstorms will be possible at KCDS this evening as
storms slowly move to the southeast. Large hail, gusty and erratic
winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with any
thunderstorm. Thunderstorms should dissipate by 04z. Late tonight
into early Thursday morning MVFR to IFR ceilings will expand from
north to south and potentially impact all three TAF sites. These
low ceilings should dissipate late tomorrow morning with VFR
conditions expected thereafter.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ034-035-040>042.

&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...58

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

TXZ021>044-221615-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1110 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and evening
east of a dryline expected to stall near the edge of the Caprock. If
a strong cap can be overcome, supercell storms are likely and could
produce giant hail to softball size and wind gusts around 80 mph.
Although unlikely, a tornado is also possible.

Additionally, expected temperatures of 105 to 109 this afternoon have
prompted a heat advisory for the southeastern South Plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday during the
afternoon/evening hours, mainly off the Caprock.

Triple-digit heat will return by this weekend and looks to
continue well into next week with potential for heat advisories.