Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
340 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Key Messages:

- Thunderstorm chances persist early this morning into this
afternoon, with a threat for hail and strong winds across southwest
and central Nebraska.

- Additional thunderstorm chances continue nearly each day next
  week. The threat for severe weather is uncertain at this time.

- Smoke filters into the area aloft late tonight, though
  confidence in impacts to the surface remains low confidence.

- Temperatures warm into early next week before cooling slightly behind
  a cold front midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Currently, convection persists across portions of the Panhandle into
southwest Nebraska, in a broad warm air advection regime. This is
tied to a 30kt southerly LLJ, ahead of a weak H85 low positioned
over northeast Colorado. Another area of convection is pushing into
the northern Panhandle from southwest South Dakota, along a weak
cold frontal boundary.

For today, the chances for severe weather will be tied to ongoing
convection this morning as it pushes through the area into this
afternoon. Confidence wanes with respect to evolution of convection,
especially in the warm air advection regime across southwest
Nebraska. Recent high-res guidance suggests continued redevelopment
as convection continues to slowly translate eastward along the I-80
corridor this morning. That said, recent trends in both satellite
and radar presentation suggest quickly weakening convection and
bring into question how much redevelopment will occur.
Additionally, the LLJ is anticipated to veer later this morning,
further supporting a continued downtrend in activity. Still, while
convection persists, hail and gusty winds can be expected with
long and straight hodographs and steep low level lapse rates. Some
questions linger with how elevated this convection remains, with
recent mesonet observations showing gusts of 40-50mph with this
activity. Instability wanes with eastward extent into central
Nebraska, with limited recovery in the wake of the MCS earlier
this evening.

The convection across southwest South Dakota looks to persist into
northern Nebraska and the Sandhills, with a threat for strong winds
and hail into this afternoon. Some upscale growth remains possible
as it slides into the area, though this is a low confidence
solution. Recent trends suggest strengthening of the convective
line, leading to higher confidence that this will impact the area.
The environment is again characterized by strong deep layer wind
shear and adequate MUCAPE. If upscale growth can continue into early
this afternoon, persistent southerly flow should lead to an
increasing pool of instability across southwest and central
Nebraska, with the caveat that the WAA convection regime wanes as
anticipated. The threat for strong winds, hail, and heavy rainfall
persists into early afternoon before exiting the area off to the
south. An additional round of convection could initiate over the
higher terrain this evening and progress southeastward through
the Panhandle, though confidence in this remains low with ongoing
convection evolution driving the degree and placement of
instability this afternoon.

Quieter conditions are expected into Saturday, as heights rise aloft
and the area remains in a post-frontal airmass. Smoke filters into
the area aloft from Canadian wildfires as a mid-level trough axis
pushes through the area early Saturday morning, with flow
transitioning northwesterly. Hazy skies return for Saturday, though
confidence in any further surface impacts remain low confidence.
Some guidance suggests a period of thicker near surface smoke across
northern Nebraska trapped under an inversion Saturday morning. This
then looks to abate as diurnal mixing occurs into Saturday
afternoon. Will forego any smoke mention in the forecast for now,
though future addition may be needed should confidence grow.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

The active pattern persists into next week, with persistent strong
northwesterly flow aloft progged to continue. This occurs as the
area remains positioned between persistent troughing over the Hudson
Bay and an amplifying ridge over the western CONUS. Multiple
shortwave troughs are progged to eject across the northern Plains in
the mean flow aloft, with associated surface features helping to
drive convection chances and near daily thunderstorm chances next
week. With ample mid-level flow aiding strong deep layer shear and
adequate cold air aloft, the threat for strong to severe storms
looks to persist. Confidence in severe weather any one day remains
low for now, however, this will continue to be monitored. Persistent
warm advection early next week will lead to a return of low to
middle 90s, as well as deeper moisture as the Gulf of Mexico remains
open.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

The threat for thunderstorms will increase toward daybreak on
Friday as isolated storms are possible. Will handle this with
vicinity wording for now. By late morning Friday, skies will
gradually clear from northern Nebraska into southern Nebraska with
scattered high clouds expected Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Brown
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Buttler

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
427 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-150930-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
427 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 /327 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of western and
north central Nebraska. Some strong storms are possible, mainly near
and south of Highways 2 and 91 through early this evening. Strong
wind gusts and hail up to quarter size are the main sever threats.
Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon
and Saturday night and again Tuesday through Thursday. At this time,
the potential for severe thunderstorms is fairly low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
338 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2023

NEZ004-141015-
Sheridan NE-
338 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Sheridan County through 415 AM MDT...

At 338 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rushville, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rushville, Clinton, Lone Butte, Highway 27 crossing the Niobrara
River and Intersection of Highway 27 and Mills Road.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 88 and 101.
 Highway 250 between mile markers 43 and 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4266 10255 4279 10252 4278 10210 4255 10213
TIME...MOT...LOC 0938Z 282DEG 24KT 4271 10247

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Brown

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
508 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

NEZ006-008-009-141045-
Brown NE-Rock NE-Keya Paha NE-
508 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Rock,
northern Brown and south central Keya Paha Counties through 545 AM
CDT...

At 507 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ainsworth, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Ainsworth, Bassett, Long Pine, Newport, Johnstown, Keller Park State
Recreation Area, Bobcat State Wildlife Management Area, Pony Lake,
Pine Glen State Wildlife Refuge, Antelope Peak and Meadville.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 170 and 208.
 Highway 20 between mile markers 225 and 274.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4249 10018 4277 10018 4274 9925 4234 9925
TIME...MOT...LOC 1007Z 289DEG 40KT 4258 9990

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Brown

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
414 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2023

NEZ004-141045-
Sheridan NE-
414 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Sheridan
County through 445 AM MDT...

At 413 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Hay Springs, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Smith Lake State Wildlife Management Area and Highway 250 crossing
the Niobrara River.

This includes Highway 250 between mile markers 25 and 42.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4252 10270 4266 10259 4258 10221 4234 10235
TIME...MOT...LOC 1013Z 291DEG 18KT 4257 10260

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Brown