Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
340 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Key Messages:

- Thunderstorm chances persist early this morning into this
afternoon, with a threat for hail and strong winds across southwest
and central Nebraska.

- Additional thunderstorm chances continue nearly each day next
  week. The threat for severe weather is uncertain at this time.

- Smoke filters into the area aloft late tonight, though
  confidence in impacts to the surface remains low confidence.

- Temperatures warm into early next week before cooling slightly behind
  a cold front midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Currently, convection persists across portions of the Panhandle into
southwest Nebraska, in a broad warm air advection regime. This is
tied to a 30kt southerly LLJ, ahead of a weak H85 low positioned
over northeast Colorado. Another area of convection is pushing into
the northern Panhandle from southwest South Dakota, along a weak
cold frontal boundary.

For today, the chances for severe weather will be tied to ongoing
convection this morning as it pushes through the area into this
afternoon. Confidence wanes with respect to evolution of convection,
especially in the warm air advection regime across southwest
Nebraska. Recent high-res guidance suggests continued redevelopment
as convection continues to slowly translate eastward along the I-80
corridor this morning. That said, recent trends in both satellite
and radar presentation suggest quickly weakening convection and
bring into question how much redevelopment will occur.
Additionally, the LLJ is anticipated to veer later this morning,
further supporting a continued downtrend in activity. Still, while
convection persists, hail and gusty winds can be expected with
long and straight hodographs and steep low level lapse rates. Some
questions linger with how elevated this convection remains, with
recent mesonet observations showing gusts of 40-50mph with this
activity. Instability wanes with eastward extent into central
Nebraska, with limited recovery in the wake of the MCS earlier
this evening.

The convection across southwest South Dakota looks to persist into
northern Nebraska and the Sandhills, with a threat for strong winds
and hail into this afternoon. Some upscale growth remains possible
as it slides into the area, though this is a low confidence
solution. Recent trends suggest strengthening of the convective
line, leading to higher confidence that this will impact the area.
The environment is again characterized by strong deep layer wind
shear and adequate MUCAPE. If upscale growth can continue into early
this afternoon, persistent southerly flow should lead to an
increasing pool of instability across southwest and central
Nebraska, with the caveat that the WAA convection regime wanes as
anticipated. The threat for strong winds, hail, and heavy rainfall
persists into early afternoon before exiting the area off to the
south. An additional round of convection could initiate over the
higher terrain this evening and progress southeastward through
the Panhandle, though confidence in this remains low with ongoing
convection evolution driving the degree and placement of
instability this afternoon.

Quieter conditions are expected into Saturday, as heights rise aloft
and the area remains in a post-frontal airmass. Smoke filters into
the area aloft from Canadian wildfires as a mid-level trough axis
pushes through the area early Saturday morning, with flow
transitioning northwesterly. Hazy skies return for Saturday, though
confidence in any further surface impacts remain low confidence.
Some guidance suggests a period of thicker near surface smoke across
northern Nebraska trapped under an inversion Saturday morning. This
then looks to abate as diurnal mixing occurs into Saturday
afternoon. Will forego any smoke mention in the forecast for now,
though future addition may be needed should confidence grow.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

The active pattern persists into next week, with persistent strong
northwesterly flow aloft progged to continue. This occurs as the
area remains positioned between persistent troughing over the Hudson
Bay and an amplifying ridge over the western CONUS. Multiple
shortwave troughs are progged to eject across the northern Plains in
the mean flow aloft, with associated surface features helping to
drive convection chances and near daily thunderstorm chances next
week. With ample mid-level flow aiding strong deep layer shear and
adequate cold air aloft, the threat for strong to severe storms
looks to persist. Confidence in severe weather any one day remains
low for now, however, this will continue to be monitored. Persistent
warm advection early next week will lead to a return of low to
middle 90s, as well as deeper moisture as the Gulf of Mexico remains
open.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

The threat for thunderstorms will increase toward daybreak on
Friday as isolated storms are possible. Will handle this with
vicinity wording for now. By late morning Friday, skies will
gradually clear from northern Nebraska into southern Nebraska with
scattered high clouds expected Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Brown
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Buttler

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1012 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-150315-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1012 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 /912 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible overnight across the area. At this time,
the threat for additional severe storms is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday into the
weekend. At this time, the potential for severe thunderstorms is
fairly low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected for the rest of tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1125 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023

NEZ022-056-057-140615-
Deuel NE-Garden NE-Keith NE-
1125 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Keith,
south central Garden and northeastern Deuel Counties through 1215 AM
MDT...

At 1124 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lewellen, or 13 miles southeast of Oshkosh, moving southeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Big Springs, Brule, Lewellen, Ash Hollow State Historical Park,
Megeath and Windlass Hill.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 61 near mile marker 89.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 109 and 118.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4122 10233 4135 10222 4118 10170 4101 10199
TIME...MOT...LOC 0524Z 299DEG 27KT 4126 10218

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Roberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1211 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2023

NEZ022-140645-
Garden NE-
1211 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Garden
County through 1245 AM MDT...

At 1211 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Crescent Lake National Wildlife Refuge, or 18
miles northwest of Oshkosh, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Crescent Lake National Wildlife Refuge, Richardson Lake, Deer Lake,
Adams Flats, Rackett and Dogtown Flats.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4155 10260 4173 10262 4180 10209 4158 10203
TIME...MOT...LOC 0611Z 263DEG 41KT 4165 10251

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Roberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1221 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2023

NEZ022-140700-
Garden NE-
1221 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Garden
County through 100 AM MDT...

At 1221 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lisco, or 14 miles west of Oshkosh, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Oshkosh, Lisco and Intersection of Highway 27 and 9 Mile Road.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 10263 4147 10220 4123 10232 4123 10246
      4130 10261 4139 10261 4140 10264 4149 10264
TIME...MOT...LOC 0621Z 291DEG 26KT 4142 10263

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Roberg

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