Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
724 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Key Messages:

- Thunderstorm chances persist early this morning into this
afternoon, with a threat for hail and strong winds across southwest
and central Nebraska.

- Additional thunderstorm chances continue nearly each day next
  week. The threat for severe weather is uncertain at this time.

- Smoke filters into the area aloft late tonight, though
  confidence in impacts to the surface remains low confidence.

- Temperatures warm into early next week before cooling slightly behind
  a cold front midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Currently, convection persists across portions of the Panhandle into
southwest Nebraska, in a broad warm air advection regime. This is
tied to a 30kt southerly LLJ, ahead of a weak H85 low positioned
over northeast Colorado. Another area of convection is pushing into
the northern Panhandle from southwest South Dakota, along a weak
cold frontal boundary.

For today, the chances for severe weather will be tied to ongoing
convection this morning as it pushes through the area into this
afternoon. Confidence wanes with respect to evolution of convection,
especially in the warm air advection regime across southwest
Nebraska. Recent high-res guidance suggests continued redevelopment
as convection continues to slowly translate eastward along the I-80
corridor this morning. That said, recent trends in both satellite
and radar presentation suggest quickly weakening convection and
bring into question how much redevelopment will occur.
Additionally, the LLJ is anticipated to veer later this morning,
further supporting a continued downtrend in activity. Still, while
convection persists, hail and gusty winds can be expected with
long and straight hodographs and steep low level lapse rates. Some
questions linger with how elevated this convection remains, with
recent mesonet observations showing gusts of 40-50mph with this
activity. Instability wanes with eastward extent into central
Nebraska, with limited recovery in the wake of the MCS earlier
this evening.

The convection across southwest South Dakota looks to persist into
northern Nebraska and the Sandhills, with a threat for strong winds
and hail into this afternoon. Some upscale growth remains possible
as it slides into the area, though this is a low confidence
solution. Recent trends suggest strengthening of the convective
line, leading to higher confidence that this will impact the area.
The environment is again characterized by strong deep layer wind
shear and adequate MUCAPE. If upscale growth can continue into early
this afternoon, persistent southerly flow should lead to an
increasing pool of instability across southwest and central
Nebraska, with the caveat that the WAA convection regime wanes as
anticipated. The threat for strong winds, hail, and heavy rainfall
persists into early afternoon before exiting the area off to the
south. An additional round of convection could initiate over the
higher terrain this evening and progress southeastward through
the Panhandle, though confidence in this remains low with ongoing
convection evolution driving the degree and placement of
instability this afternoon.

Quieter conditions are expected into Saturday, as heights rise aloft
and the area remains in a post-frontal airmass. Smoke filters into
the area aloft from Canadian wildfires as a mid-level trough axis
pushes through the area early Saturday morning, with flow
transitioning northwesterly. Hazy skies return for Saturday, though
confidence in any further surface impacts remain low confidence.
Some guidance suggests a period of thicker near surface smoke across
northern Nebraska trapped under an inversion Saturday morning. This
then looks to abate as diurnal mixing occurs into Saturday
afternoon. Will forego any smoke mention in the forecast for now,
though future addition may be needed should confidence grow.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

The active pattern persists into next week, with persistent strong
northwesterly flow aloft progged to continue. This occurs as the
area remains positioned between persistent troughing over the Hudson
Bay and an amplifying ridge over the western CONUS. Multiple
shortwave troughs are progged to eject across the northern Plains in
the mean flow aloft, with associated surface features helping to
drive convection chances and near daily thunderstorm chances next
week. With ample mid-level flow aiding strong deep layer shear and
adequate cold air aloft, the threat for strong to severe storms
looks to persist. Confidence in severe weather any one day remains
low for now, however, this will continue to be monitored. Persistent
warm advection early next week will lead to a return of low to
middle 90s, as well as deeper moisture as the Gulf of Mexico remains
open.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 724 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

A complex of showers and thunderstorms will track southeastward
today. This may affect the KLBF terminal through 18Z. Gusty winds,
small hail and brief heavy rain may occur. The activity has mostly
exited the KVTN terminal with light showers lingering until 13Z.
Clearing skies later this afternoon and evening with light winds.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Brown
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Roberg

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