Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
310 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

A few isolated showers and storms are possible Saturday as a cold
front passes through the Great Lakes region. A much more quiet
pattern returns in the coming days, with the next rain chances
holding off until Thursday. High pressure settles in, bringing dry
conditions, sunny skies, and mild temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

A cold front brings chances for a few isolated showers and storms
throughout the day (15% chance or less) as it moves southward
through the CWA. Any storm activity will be much less widespread
than what we experienced overnight, with no severe weather expected
during the day Saturday. Highs Saturday will be in the low to mid
80s with decreasing clouds in the afternoon.

Saturday evening will be pleasant, with mostly clear skies, calm
winds, and temperatures falling into the low 60s for lows
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

The oppressive heat and humidity we've experienced in the past few
days dissipates as the aforementioned cold front brings much needed
northerly flow back to the CWA. A large area of high pressure builds
across Saskatchewan and moves southeastward into the upper Midwest
and Great Lakes regions this weekend. Dry conditions and mild
temperature prevail over the next several days thanks to northerly
flow and the presence of this high pressure system. These dry
stays will be pleasant, as northerly winds usher in refreshing
air! Dewpoints drop into the 50s Sunday, which will feel much more
comfortable compared to the tropical humidity we've experienced
as of late. High temperatures Sunday through Friday will be
slightly below to near normal in the low to mid 80s each day.

The next chance for rain returns Thursday as the area of high
pressure migrates east. Given a lack of confidence, I have chosen to
keep PoPs low for now (only 15-30%), but it appears several chances
are possible towards the end of the long range period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Timed storms through KSBN ending around 07 UTC and 09 UTC at KFWA
as convective linear system sweeps eastward through northern
Indiana. Convection associated with northwest flow shortwave
impinging along east to west frontal boundary through northern
Indiana. In wake, of shortwave passage, frontal boundary will
accelerate southward and reach the Ohio River by late this
afternoon. VFR conditions emerge behind convection with surface
flow turning northwest to north as frontal boundary sags south.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Johnson
SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Murphy

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
327 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

INZ005>009-012-014-017-018-024>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216-
MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-290900-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Marshall-Whitley-
Allen IN-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-
Northern La Porte-Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-
Southern La Porte-Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-
Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
327 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 /227 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop late this afternoon and
become numerous by late evening with a threat for damaging winds and
perhaps some isolated hail early this evening west of I-69.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be need later this evening.

INZ013-015-020-022-023-290900-
Pulaski-Fulton IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-
327 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

A Heat Advisory is in effect until midnight EDT or 11 PM CDT
tonight. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will
combine to create heat indices from 100 to 105 degrees. For full
details listen to NOAA Weather Radio or visit online at
weather.gov/IWX for more information.

Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop late this afternoon and
become numerous by late evening with a threat for damaging winds and
perhaps some isolated hail early this evening west of I-69.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-290900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
327 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely overnight with a risk for wind gusts in
excess of 50 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
245 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Wallen              41.18N 85.17W
07/29/2023                   Allen              IN   Public

            Trees down in the parking lot of this store.

&&

CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
248 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     Rain             4 ENE Woodland          41.57N 86.11W
07/29/2023  M2.89 inch       St. Joseph         IN   Public

            Since midnight. 3.19 since storms started.

&&

CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
252 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNE Lake Everett      41.19N 85.29W
07/29/2023                   Allen              IN   Amateur Radio

            Powerlines down at US 33 and Carroll Rd.

&&

MJ

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
300 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     Hail             4 NNE Fort Wayne        41.12N 85.10W
07/29/2023  M0.75 inch       Allen              IN   Trained Spotter

&&

CR

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