Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
140 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will
continue overnight with locally heavy rain and damaging winds
possible.

Drier and cooler weather will then overspread the area this
weekend as high pressure builds into the Midwest and Upper Great
Lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Cloud debris from morning MCS slow to decay this morning but
accelerating this aftn as MCV progresses into wrn OH. Sfc temps have
naturally been slow to respond but aftn insolation/mixing will yield
rapid rebound with low 90s southwest to tempered upper 80s
northeast. Will drop prior heat advisory east and north yet retain
southwest for this evening.

Otherwise primary question remains with convective redevelopment
late day and especially overnight. 17Z sfc analysis shows well
demarcated outflow boundary extending from cntrl IL into srn IN
before bucking back north as a warm front through IA. Expect wrn
flank of outflow will mix north through evening while ern flank
moves little with potential redevelopment invof the US30 corridor
late this aftn with noted pocket of aggravated cu over ne IL earlier.
Nevertheless northeast IA through nrn IL vcnty appears most
susceptible for vigorous storm development by evening with rapid
upscale growth/organization ese along sharp low level theta-e ridge
tonight. 12Z guidance as a whole looks too far north with track of
this expected MCS with a swd tilt favored which would steer it
directly through cntr of the CWA mid to late evening with a
commensurate heavy rain/damaging wind risk esp wrn half. Secondary
MCS likely to evolve up across srn MN/wrn WI ewd of stout shortwave
disturbance advancing east out of ND and track se late tonight,
tracking through at least nrn CWA. Expected separation of these two
systems would mitigate a certain flood potential yet there could be
some overlap north of US30 which bears close scrutiny once lead
system shows its hand later this evening.

Will defer any possible flood watch to the next shift as 12Z guidance
spread lends no confidence to the above scenario.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

A few showers possible within swd progressing cold front Sat morning
into early aftn southeast otherwise notable drying and cooler temps
follow through mid week as high pressure builds in across the Great
Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Timed storms through KSBN ending around 07 UTC and 09 UTC at KFWA
as convective linear system sweeps eastward through northern
Indiana. Convection associated with northwest flow shortwave
impinging along east to west frontal boundary through northern
Indiana. In wake, of shortwave passage, frontal boundary will
accelerate southward and reach the Ohio River by late this
afternoon. VFR conditions emerge behind convection with surface
flow turning northwest to north as frontal boundary sags south.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Murphy

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
327 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

INZ005>009-012-014-017-018-024>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216-
MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-290900-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Marshall-Whitley-
Allen IN-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-
Northern La Porte-Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-
Southern La Porte-Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-
Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
327 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 /227 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop late this afternoon and
become numerous by late evening with a threat for damaging winds and
perhaps some isolated hail early this evening west of I-69.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be need later this evening.

INZ013-015-020-022-023-290900-
Pulaski-Fulton IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-
327 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

A Heat Advisory is in effect until midnight EDT or 11 PM CDT
tonight. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will
combine to create heat indices from 100 to 105 degrees. For full
details listen to NOAA Weather Radio or visit online at
weather.gov/IWX for more information.

Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop late this afternoon and
become numerous by late evening with a threat for damaging winds and
perhaps some isolated hail early this evening west of I-69.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-290900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
327 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely overnight with a risk for wind gusts in
excess of 50 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
208 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 ENE Rochester         41.07N 86.18W
07/29/2023  M60 MPH          Fulton             IN   AWOS

            Corrects previous report from 1 ENE
            Rochester. AWOS station KRCR Rochester.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
212 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     North Liberty           41.53N 86.43W
07/29/2023                   St. Joseph         IN   Emergency Mngr

            Report of powerlines down in North Liberty.

&&

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
214 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

INZ022>026-032-033-290645-
Miami IN-Wabash IN-Huntington IN-Blackford IN-Wells IN-Cass IN-
Grant IN-
214 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN WABASH...GRANT...
BLACKFORD...SOUTHERN HUNTINGTON...SOUTHERN WELLS...SOUTHEASTERN CASS
AND SOUTHERN MIAMI COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM EDT...

At 213 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Mexico to 9 miles northeast of Frankfort.
Movement was east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This includes Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 252 and
277.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM EDT for
central, north central, northeastern and east central Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 8587 4056 8636 4080 8623 4078 8587
      4072 8586 4072 8512 4038 8534 4038 8586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0613Z 274DEG 56KT 4079 8615 4039 8638

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

MARSILI

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
223 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0148 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 N Elkhart             41.72N 85.97W
07/29/2023                   Elkhart            IN   Trained Spotter

            3 to 6 inch diameter tree limbs down in
            northern Elkhart.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
224 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 S Mishawaka           41.64N 86.16W
07/29/2023                   St. Joseph         IN   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Tree down blocking roadway. Time estimated
            by radar.

&&

CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
225 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 S Grissom Afb         40.63N 86.15W
07/29/2023  M74 MPH          Miami              IN   AWOS

            AWOS station KGUS Grissom AFB Peru.

&&

MJ