Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
701 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will
redevelop late this afternoon and evening in the vicinity of an
outflow boundary near the US 30 corridor.  Additional widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight, some with locally
heavy rain and damaging winds possible.

Drier and cooler weather will overspread the area this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Cloud debris from morning MCS slow to decay this morning but
accelerating this aftn as MCV progresses into wrn OH. Sfc temps have
naturally been slow to respond but aftn insolation/mixing will yield
rapid rebound with low 90s southwest to tempered upper 80s
northeast. Will drop prior heat advisory east and north yet retain
southwest for this evening.

Otherwise primary question remains with convective redevelopment
late day and especially overnight. 17Z sfc analysis shows well
demarcated outflow boundary extending from cntrl IL into srn IN
before bucking back north as a warm front through IA. Expect wrn
flank of outflow will mix north through evening while ern flank
moves little with potential redevelopment invof the US30 corridor
late this aftn with noted pocket of aggravated cu over ne IL earlier.
Nevertheless northeast IA through nrn IL vcnty appears most
susceptible for vigorous storm development by evening with rapid
upscale growth/organization ese along sharp low level theta-e ridge
tonight. 12Z guidance as a whole looks too far north with track of
this expected MCS with a swd tilt favored which would steer it
directly through cntr of the CWA mid to late evening with a
commensurate heavy rain/damaging wind risk esp wrn half. Secondary
MCS likely to evolve up across srn MN/wrn WI ewd of stout shortwave
disturbance advancing east out of ND and track se late tonight,
tracking through at least nrn CWA. Expected separation of these two
systems would mitigate a certain flood potential yet there could be
some overlap north of US30 which bears close scrutiny once lead
system shows its hand later this evening.

Will defer any possible flood watch to the next shift as 12Z guidance
spread lends no confidence to the above scenario.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

A few showers possible within swd progressing cold front Sat morning
into early aftn southeast otherwise notable drying and cooler temps
follow through mid week as high pressure builds in across the Great
Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Convective development along quasi-stationary surface boundary
ongoing out to the west in NE IA/SW WI and expected to continue to
increase in coverage and expand eastward to begin this TAF cycle.
Will begin KSBN with VCSH then prevailing/tempo in the 02-06Z
timeframe. Upstream obs have been predominately VFR ceilings in
the vicinity of these storms with MVFR visibilities for sites
directly impacted by heavy rain. Will follow similar trend with
KFWA with a 04-08Z window. May still have a VCSH lingering in
early morning hours Saturday then quiet remainder of the period
with a NW flow.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for INZ013-015-020-022-
     023.

MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...JAL

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
327 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

INZ005>009-012-014-017-018-024>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216-
MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-290900-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Marshall-Whitley-
Allen IN-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-
Northern La Porte-Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-
Southern La Porte-Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-
Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
327 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 /227 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop late this afternoon and
become numerous by late evening with a threat for damaging winds and
perhaps some isolated hail early this evening west of I-69.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be need later this evening.

INZ013-015-020-022-023-290900-
Pulaski-Fulton IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-
327 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

A Heat Advisory is in effect until midnight EDT or 11 PM CDT
tonight. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will
combine to create heat indices from 100 to 105 degrees. For full
details listen to NOAA Weather Radio or visit online at
weather.gov/IWX for more information.

Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop late this afternoon and
become numerous by late evening with a threat for damaging winds and
perhaps some isolated hail early this evening west of I-69.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-290900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
327 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely overnight with a risk for wind gusts in
excess of 50 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1244 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     Hail             Montpelier              40.55N 85.28W
07/29/2023  M1.00 inch       Blackford          IN   Public

            Several photos on Facebook of quarter size
            hail in Montpelier near the fairgrounds.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1245 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     Hail             1 E Montpelier          40.55N 85.26W
07/29/2023  M1.25 inch       Blackford          IN   Public

            Photo on Facebook on hail slightly larger
            than a quarter.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1246 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     Hail             Montpelier              40.55N 85.28W
07/29/2023  M1.00 inch       Blackford          IN   Public

            Photos on Facebook of quarter size hail in
            Pioneer.

&&

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1249 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

INZ005-104-290545-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Elkhart IN-
1249 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN ELKHART AND SOUTHEASTERN
ST. JOSEPH COUNTIES THROUGH 145 AM EDT...

At 1249 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wakarusa, or near Mishawaka, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM EDT for
north central Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 4171 8583 4147 8578 4148 8606 4148 8618
      4167 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 0449Z 271DEG 13KT 4158 8611

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MARSILI

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1251 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     Hail             Montpelier              41.58N 84.60W
07/29/2023  M1.00 inch       Williams           OH   Public

            Photos on Facebook show several quarter size
            hailstones in Montpelier.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1252 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     Hail             Montpelier              41.58N 84.60W
07/29/2023  E1.25 inch       Williams           OH   Public

            Photo on Facebook of hail slightly larger
            than a quarter.

&&

MJ