Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1156 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

A period of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected overnight
across central IL, with large hail and damaging winds possible. A
warm and unsettled weather pattern will continue over the area
through Monday night. Some storms could be severe again during
Sunday night into Monday evening. Temperatures will stay above
normal through the rest of the week, with another chance for
thunderstorms by the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

Late this afternoon and tonight...

The forecast starts off with an upper ridge building over the OH
River Valley, with SW flow aloft over the central U.S. A warm
front in southern IL will lift north through the area tonight. A
strong line of thunderstorms has been moving ESE across central
IL, just clipping the ILX forecast area. MUCAPE is around 1000
J/kg and effective shear 30-45 kts in central IL. Will be watching
this line as it's had a history of producing severe hail and could
produce damaging winds.

The better chance for severe storms will be tonight as storms
firing to the northwest in IA are expected to develop into a line
and move southeast across parts of central IL. However, modeled
solutions vary considerably regarding the track and coverage.
Still, a line does appear likely across the region so have kept
PoPs in this range. West-central IL is in a slight risk and east-
central is in a marginal risk in SPC's latest outlook.

Sunday and Monday...

Any morning activity will exiting the southeastern counties
around or shortly after sunrise Sunday morning. Central IL is
expected to warm into the 80s on Sunday, with CAPE increasing as
well. Isolated afternoon storms will be possible, but the main
severe threat will be late Sunday night when discrete cells over
IA, once again, are expected to congeal into a line of storms and
push southeast across central IL. The storms could be severe with
damaging winds being the primary threat. On Monday, we'll have
showers and thunderstorms possible all day as a surface low and
associated upper wave move through the area. Much of the area is
in a marginal to slight risk of severe storms on Monday due to
+2000 J/kg and +30 kts of deep shear. This will be an
afternoon/evening event, with storms developing ahead of a cold
front that will push south across the area Monday night.

Extended...

The rest of the week looks to be warmer than average with highs in
the upper 70s to mid 80s. After Monday night's activity, the best
chance for precipitation will come towards the end of the week.

Knutsvig

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

A broken band of thunderstorms near the IL river at 05Z/midnight
will race eastward to I-55 by 06Z/1 am and to DEC and CMI by
07-08Z. IFR to MVFR conditions will be likely for a couple hours
overnight with thunderstorms with brief heavy rains along with
gusty WNW winds 30-40 kts and possibly stronger. PIA currently sw
wind gusting 34 kts. More thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
night, though coverage and timing that far out is more uncertain.
South to SE winds 8-13 kts with gusts 15-20 kts ahead of the
thunderstorms to veer SW on Sunday and could still gust to near 20
kts.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

WFO ILX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
328 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-072030-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
328 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

An isolated strong or severe thunderstorm is possible this
afternoon. Tonight, a line of storms will likely develop and push
southeast across parts of central IL. This line of storms could be
severe with damaging winds and large hail being the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Periods of thunderstorms are expected Sunday and Monday. Severe
storms will again be possible, especially Sunday night and Monday.
Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. An
isolated flash flood risk may develop if thunderstorms repeatedly
affect the same location.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late tonight.

Knutsvig

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