Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Lincoln, IL

186 
WWUS53 KILX 080021
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
721 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

ILC057-125-169-080031-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-230508T0030Z/
Fulton-Schuyler-Mason-
721 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN FULTON...
NORTHEASTERN SCHUYLER AND CENTRAL MASON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 730
PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
central and west central Illinois.

LAT...LON 4028 9045 4031 9045 4035 8997 4010 9000
      4011 9004 4009 9007 4010 9031 4012 9032
      4012 9036 4011 9039 4011 9045 4027 9047
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 263DEG 19KT 4018 9008 

$$

25

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
511 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 510 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Look for additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon, overnight into Monday morning, and potentially Monday
evening. Quieter weather is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Precipitation chances return from Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 510 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

A line of scattered thunderstorms continues from roughly Vermont,
IL southeast across the Springfield area to south of
Taylorville. Outflow is expanding from these clusters of storms,
but satellite imagery reveals that updrafts remain vigorous,
though may be becoming slightly elevated with time as mid level
southwest flow overruns the shallow outflow. Stronger storms
continue to have the potential for very large hail with normalized
CAPE values still high, in the 0.25 to 0.30 range (albeit
slightly lower from a couple hours ago). While deep layer shear
continues to support the potential for a few supercells, weak low
level shear and negligible low level helicity are limiting
factors in terms of any tornado potential. Finally, while storm
motions will continue to be east around 20 mph or so (southeast
for deviant right moving supercells), there has been some backward
propagation resulting in very slow to near stationary speeds.
There remains a threat for flash flooding under these storms.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

As warm and humid air advects into central Illinois from the
west, a remnant outflow boundary from morning convection has moved
to a position from just west of Peoria, to just west of
Springfield, passing just east of the St. Louis Metro and curving
toward Paducah KY. Expect this feature to the the focus for
convective initiation this afternoon/evening. With MLCAPE near
3000 J/kg in the vicinity of this boundary and cloud layer shear
in excess of 40 knots, both large hail and severe wind gusts will
be threats from these cells. As a short wave trough moving through
northern Arkansas approaches, additional forcing for ascent along
with some degree of mid-level cooling will likely lead to fairly
broad multicell storm coverage near the outflow boundary, though
even in this situation stronger updrafts may be capable of large
hail. The expected coverage will likely lead to a growing cold
pool and another southward push of the outflow boundary this
evening, with the severity of this round of thunderstorms waning
by around 8-9 pm.

CAMs depict a second round of convection during the early morning
hours on Monday, with an organized bowing complex of thunderstorms
approaching from southern IA/northern MO. The extent of
afternoon/evening convection across central Illinois will likely
play a large role in the evolution of this complex, with the most
likely outcome at this point being a weakening complex as it moves
into central Illinois after midnight, and/or the complex following
the instability gradient to the southeast with the wind threat
remaining farther west. Even so, the potential for strong to severe
wind gusts in association with this complex will need to be watched,
especially if little convection occurs with the first round across
northern parts of the ILX forecast area. In addition, there is
potential for flash flooding with both rounds of convection,
especially where training storms occur and/or where large amounts of
rain fell early this morning.

In the wake of the early morning convective activity, expect a
fairly quiet period for at least part of the late morning/early
afternoon on Monday before thunderstorms again develop on a cold
front/the remnant outflow boundary from morning convection. MLCAPE
will be closer to 1000 J/kg, with cloud layer shear decreasing to
around 25-30 kt. Though those values are less than today, there will
still be a risk of storms producing large hail and/or severe wind
gusts Monday afternoon/evening. Expect the storms to move out of the
southeast corner of the ILX forecast area by around 9-10pm with the
cold front, with light northeast winds and relatively quiet
conditions for the rest of the overnight hours.

AAT

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

Key Messages:

1) Much quieter weather is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) Precipitation chances increase once again from Thursday into the
weekend.

A mid-level ridge will amplify over the Midwest from Tuesday into
Wednesday, with minimal precipitation chances and high temperatures
falling back into the mid to upper 70s. Precipitation chances begin
to return on Thursday in association with a closed low moving from
the northern/central Rockies into the upper Midwest. Cluster
analysis shows ensemble member differences regarding the depth and
speed/track of this low, which will eventually affect where and how
much precipitation falls. Even so, this period doesn't look terribly
high-impact at this point, with NBM probability of rainfall > 1" in
the entire Friday-Sunday period only in the 20-30% range. However,
we'll need to keep an eye out for substantial rainfall accumulations
where soils are becoming more saturated. Additionally, the grand
ensemble (GEFS/EC/CMC) mean CAPE in the Fri/Sun period does poke up
between 500-1000 J/kg during the afternoons.

AAT

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

VCSH were removed from the first couple hours of the TAFs, as
we've still some time to destabilize thanks to the outflow from
this morning's storms. Ultimately, however, surface heating should
prove sufficient for convection to reignite along that residual
boundary and subsequently propagate northeastward across central
Illinois. In the meantime, south winds around 10-15 (G20) kt will
continue as the bases of scattered to broken stratocumulus rise
out of the MVFR category at CMI and PIA. There's still
considerable timing and locational uncertainty with the storms to
develop late this afternoon and evening, but confidence increases
in widespread thunderstorms later tonight - mainly after around
08z (3 AM). Both rounds of storms will carry the potential for
erratic and intense (locally > 50 kt) surface wind gusts, large
hail, and frequent lightning, but at this time the late afternoon-
evening activity has the greatest potential to be severe.

Bumgardner

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

WFO ILX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
312 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-081645-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
312 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
persist into early evening, focused along an outflow boundary from
near Springfield to just west of Peoria. Storms this evening should
develop near this boundary, then move east-northeast at around 20 to
30 mph. Tonight, a line of storms will likely develop and push
southeast across central IL after midnight. Both rounds of
thunderstorms could be severe with damaging winds and large hail
being the primary hazards. An isolated flash flood risk may develop
if thunderstorms repeatedly affect the same location.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Periods of thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front on
Monday. Severe storms will again be possible. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail are the primary hazards. An isolated flash flood risk
may develop if thunderstorms repeatedly affect the same location.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.

25/AAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
500 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     FLOOD            2 E LOAMI               39.68N 89.81W
05/07/2023                   SANGAMON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 TO 5 INCHES OF FLOWING WATER OVER EAST
            LOAMI ROAD NEAR WEST WALNUT STREET.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
514 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     HAIL             1 NE NEW BERLIN         39.73N 89.90W
05/07/2023  U1.00 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
521 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     HAIL             1 NE NEW BERLIN         39.73N 89.90W
05/07/2023  U1.00 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

0459 PM     HAIL             3 WNW NEW BERLIN        39.74N 89.97W
05/07/2023  U1.00 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

0450 PM     FLOOD            2 E LOAMI               39.68N 89.81W
05/07/2023                   SANGAMON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 TO 5 INCHES OF FLOWING WATER OVER EAST
            LOAMI ROAD NEAR WEST WALNUT STREET.

0436 PM     HAIL             LOAMI                   39.68N 89.85W
05/07/2023  M1.50 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   PUBLIC

            PING PONG SIZE HAIL.

0435 PM     HAIL             VERMONT                 40.29N 90.43W
05/07/2023  M1.00 INCH       FULTON             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL MEASURED.

0405 PM     HAIL             5 NW PALMER             39.51N 89.47W
05/07/2023  M1.50 INCH       CHRISTIAN          IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            PING PONG SIZE HAIL AT E1100 NORTH ROAD AND
            N300 EAST ROAD.

0352 PM     HAIL             2 NNE DIVERNON          39.59N 89.64W
05/07/2023  M0.75 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL AT I-55 AND HIGHWAY 104
            INTERCHANGE.

0335 PM     HAIL             DIVERNON                39.56N 89.66W
05/07/2023  M2.00 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   MESONET

            HEN EGG SIZE HAIL. SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT VIA
            TWITTER. ESIMATED TIME OF REPORT BY RADAR.

0325 PM     HAIL             2 ESE CHATHAM           39.67N 89.67W
05/07/2023  U1.00 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

0315 PM     HAIL             CHATHAM                 39.68N 89.70W
05/07/2023  M1.75 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   MESONET

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN CHATHAM WITH PHOTO.

0315 PM     HAIL             CHATHAM                 39.68N 89.70W
05/07/2023  M2.00 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   MESONET

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT VIA TWITTER.

0314 PM     HAIL             AUBURN                  39.59N 89.74W
05/07/2023  M2.00 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   MESONET

            UP TO 2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL MEASURED. SOCIAL
            MEDIA REPORT WITH PHOTO ON TWITTER.

0310 PM     HAIL             CHATHAM                 39.68N 89.70W
05/07/2023  M3.25 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   MESONET

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT VIA TWITTER WITH PHOTO.

0309 PM     HAIL             1 E AUBURN              39.59N 89.73W
05/07/2023  M1.25 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   MESONET

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT VIA TWITTER.

0304 PM     HAIL             1 NE CHATHAM            39.69N 89.68W
05/07/2023  U1.00 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

0304 PM     HAIL             CHATHAM                 39.68N 89.70W
05/07/2023  E1.25 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   PUBLIC

0302 PM     HAIL             1 NE CHATHAM            39.69N 89.68W
05/07/2023  U0.75 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

0302 PM     HAIL             CHATHAM                 39.68N 89.70W
05/07/2023  M1.75 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN CHATHAM.

0259 PM     HAIL             CHATHAM                 39.68N 89.70W
05/07/2023  M1.00 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN CHATHAM.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
524 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             ASTORIA                 40.23N 90.36W
05/07/2023  M1.25 INCH       FULTON             IL   PUBLIC

            REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
607 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     HAIL             PAWNEE                  39.59N 89.58W
05/07/2023  E0.88 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
620 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     HAIL             5 SE MORRISONVILLE      39.37N 89.39W
05/07/2023  M2.50 INCH       CHRISTIAN          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR BASEBALL SIZE HAIL 3 MILES NW OF
            NOKOMIS. SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT WITH PHOTO ON
            TWITTER.

&&