Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
911 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
ahead of a cold front. Some of the storms could be strong to severe.
Dry weather returns Friday through at least Sunday afternoon when
the next chance of thunderstorms arrives.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Updates this evening will be concerned with timing and placement
of thunderstorms that are currently running along the I-70
corridor and moving east with a slight southeastward component.
Upstream storms running along the cold front from west of Wayne
County IN and to the southwest will not have the favorable
atmosphere to work through with regards to severity, and the
HRRR has been noting this to split over the Cincy metro area.
While this seems reasonable, will not be lowering pops nor
removing thunder until a definitive signal says there will not
be any further firing along the front.

Watch has been expanded by 3 counties this evening to account
for the strong storms merging with the cell moving northeast
from near KILN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather returns behind the front for Friday and Friday night as
high pressure builds in from the west. Northwesterly flow keeps
bringing in drier, relatively cool air (for July standards) under
partly cloudy skies. Forecast highs on Friday are near 80 and
forecast lows are near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mean trough still over the area will have various short waves moving
through. Stronger impulses, with accompanying higher chance of
showers and storms mainly in northern counties, will occur on both
Sunday and Monday. After the Monday system moves through, heights
will be rising resulting in increasing heat along with a drying out.
There is some potential that there could eventually be some weak
disturbances moving over the front side of ridge which could spark
some convection. But at this stage, that far out in time, the
probability looks quite low.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Line of thunderstorms moving into DAY and shortly thereafter
CMH/LCK will be through these stations around 3Z with clear
skies following. KILN can expect vcsh with a better chance of
thunderstorms from 3-4Z, while CVG/LUK are not expecting much
and the VCTS from 3-5Z was to time the frontal passage. A number
of models are showing storms still firing along the front but
the HRRR bypasses the tri-state with convection and this model
is the one this evening's forecast is leaning heavily towards.

Outside of storms, conditions should be VFR with little in the
way of cloud cover once they are through. Sct cu in the morning
will be broken in the afternoon and clear out at the end of the
day, along with the northwest winds 8-12kt decreasing to under
6kt.

OUTLOOK...Scattered thunderstorms possible Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Franks

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
422 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-210830-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
422 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Some storms
may be strong to severe with the primary severe weather threats being
damaging winds and large hail. The most favored time for severe
weather is from 4 PM to 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today,

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
938 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

OHZ064-065-074-210215-
Fairfield OH-Hocking OH-Pickaway OH-
938 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF FAIRFIELD,
NORTHWESTERN HOCKING AND NORTHEASTERN PICKAWAY COUNTIES THROUGH 1015
PM EDT...

At 938 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Baltimore,
moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lancaster, Baltimore, Bremen, Millersport, Pleasantville, Hide-A-Way
Hills, Royalton, Amanda, Thurston, Stoutsville, Carroll, Sugar Grove,
Rushville, West Rushville, Aw Marion State Park, Fairfield County
Airport, East Ringgold, US Route 22 at State Route 159, Hideaway
Hills and Clearport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
central Ohio.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 8285 3971 8294 3990 8260 3988 8247
      3984 8247 3983 8240 3975 8240 3974 8237
      3960 8238 3959 8233 3957 8233
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 305DEG 34KT 3983 8264

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
941 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW Saint Marys        40.52N 84.41W
07/20/2023                   Auglaize           OH   911 Call Center

            Trees down. Time estimated from radar.

&&

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