Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
741 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
ahead of a cold front. Some of the storms could be strong to severe.
Dry weather returns Friday through at least Sunday afternoon when
the next chance of thunderstorms arrives.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Forecast update was to hedge the ongoing weather with the
current forecast and higher weighted values of the HRRR. HRRR
seems to be the model handling this afternoon's convective
processes the best.

A surface low continues moving across the Great Lakes this afternoon
and evening as an associated cold front and upper level shortwave
dive into the Ohio Valley from the northwest. Surface observations
depict temperatures reaching into the middle 80s with dew points
near 70 across the area early this afternoon indicating plenty of
hot, humid air in place for storms.

Cap is eroding with to a combination of diurnal mixing and
broad ascent ahead of the shortwave and cold front. Confidence
in convective coverage and strength is greater north of I-70
closer to the low pressure system and a bit less south of I-70
where coverage is still questionable. Any storms that do get
going will have CAPEs of 2000+ J/kg with an effective shear
of 35+ knots. Large hail remains the primary threat with the
strongest storms. Damaging winds are also a threat with any
severe storm in this high DCAPE environment. A tornado cannot
be ruled out with cell mergers or boundary interactions, but
the weak low level shear environment does not appear to support
tornados as more than an isolated threat.

Storms should exit to the east before midnight. Relatively
cooler, drier air moves in from the northwest tonight behind the
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather returns behind the front for Friday and Friday night as
high pressure builds in from the west. Northwesterly flow keeps
bringing in drier, relatively cool air (for July standards) under
partly cloudy skies. Forecast highs on Friday are near 80 and
forecast lows are near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mean trough still over the area will have various short waves moving
through. Stronger impulses, with accompanying higher chance of
showers and storms mainly in northern counties, will occur on both
Sunday and Monday. After the Monday system moves through, heights
will be rising resulting in increasing heat along with a drying out.
There is some potential that there could eventually be some weak
disturbances moving over the front side of ridge which could spark
some convection. But at this stage, that far out in time, the
probability looks quite low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Line of thunderstorms moving into DAY and shortly thereafter
CMH/LCK will be through these stations around 3Z with clear
skies following. KILN can expect vcsh with a better chance of
thunderstorms from 3-4Z, while CVG/LUK are not expecting much
and the VCTS from 3-5Z was to time the frontal passage. A number
of models are showing storms still firing along the front but
the HRRR bypasses the tri-state with convection and this model
is the one this evening's forecast is leaning heavily towards.

Outside of storms, conditions should be VFR with little in the
way of cloud cover once they are through. Sct cu in the morning
will be broken in the afternoon and clear out at the end of the
day, along with the northwest winds 8-12kt decreasing to under
6kt.

OUTLOOK...Scattered thunderstorms possible Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Franks
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Franks

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
422 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-210830-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
422 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Some storms
may be strong to severe with the primary severe weather threats being
damaging winds and large hail. The most favored time for severe
weather is from 4 PM to 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today,

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
801 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     Hail             3 E Valley Hi           40.33N 83.61W
07/20/2023  E0.75 inch       Logan              OH   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

&&

JDR

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