Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
911 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
ahead of a cold front. Some of the storms could be strong to severe.
Dry weather returns Friday through at least Sunday afternoon when
the next chance of thunderstorms arrives.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Updates this evening will be concerned with timing and placement
of thunderstorms that are currently running along the I-70
corridor and moving east with a slight southeastward component.
Upstream storms running along the cold front from west of Wayne
County IN and to the southwest will not have the favorable
atmosphere to work through with regards to severity, and the
HRRR has been noting this to split over the Cincy metro area.
While this seems reasonable, will not be lowering pops nor
removing thunder until a definitive signal says there will not
be any further firing along the front.

Watch has been expanded by 3 counties this evening to account
for the strong storms merging with the cell moving northeast
from near KILN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather returns behind the front for Friday and Friday night as
high pressure builds in from the west. Northwesterly flow keeps
bringing in drier, relatively cool air (for July standards) under
partly cloudy skies. Forecast highs on Friday are near 80 and
forecast lows are near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mean trough still over the area will have various short waves moving
through. Stronger impulses, with accompanying higher chance of
showers and storms mainly in northern counties, will occur on both
Sunday and Monday. After the Monday system moves through, heights
will be rising resulting in increasing heat along with a drying out.
There is some potential that there could eventually be some weak
disturbances moving over the front side of ridge which could spark
some convection. But at this stage, that far out in time, the
probability looks quite low.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Line of thunderstorms moving into DAY and shortly thereafter
CMH/LCK will be through these stations around 3Z with clear
skies following. KILN can expect vcsh with a better chance of
thunderstorms from 3-4Z, while CVG/LUK are not expecting much
and the VCTS from 3-5Z was to time the frontal passage. A number
of models are showing storms still firing along the front but
the HRRR bypasses the tri-state with convection and this model
is the one this evening's forecast is leaning heavily towards.

Outside of storms, conditions should be VFR with little in the
way of cloud cover once they are through. Sct cu in the morning
will be broken in the afternoon and clear out at the end of the
day, along with the northwest winds 8-12kt decreasing to under
6kt.

OUTLOOK...Scattered thunderstorms possible Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Franks

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
422 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-210830-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
422 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Some storms
may be strong to severe with the primary severe weather threats being
damaging winds and large hail. The most favored time for severe
weather is from 4 PM to 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today,

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
915 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

OHZ055-056-065-210145-
Licking OH-Fairfield OH-Franklin OH-
915 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN,
NORTHWESTERN FAIRFIELD AND SOUTHWESTERN LICKING COUNTIES THROUGH 945
PM EDT...

At 915 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Ohio State
University, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Dublin, Westerville, Reynoldsburg, Grove City, Upper
Arlington, Gahanna, Hilliard, Pickerington, Worthington, Bexley,
Pataskala, Canal Winchester, Groveport, West Jefferson, Minerva Park,
Ohio State University, Beechwood Trails, Lake Darby and Easton.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 87 and 120.
 I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 92 and 119.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
central Ohio.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3986 8266 3979 8277 3982 8324 3992 8325
      3993 8323 3997 8325 4003 8325 4010 8308
      4013 8274 4008 8260
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 289DEG 33KT 4000 8304

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
918 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

OHZ063-064-210145-
Fayette OH-Pickaway OH-
918 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FAYETTE AND
WEST CENTRAL PICKAWAY COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

At 918 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Washington
Court House, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Washington Court House, Jeffersonville, Bloomingburg, New Holland,
Staunton, Deer Creek Lake, Madison Mills, Jasper Mills and
Pancoastburg.

This includes I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 68 and 72.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
central Ohio.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 8321 3947 8332 3947 8356 3966 8357
      3970 8334 3969 8325 3970 8325 3970 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 266DEG 37KT 3958 8346

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hatzos

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
924 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

OHZ060-061-210200-
Montgomery OH-Preble OH-
924 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PREBLE
AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

At 924 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Englewood,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dayton, Kettering, Huber Heights, Trotwood, Vandalia, Englewood,
Eaton, Moraine, Oakwood, West Carrollton, Lewisburg, West Alexandria,
Riverside, Clayton, Union, Brookville, New Lebanon, Shiloh,
Phillipsburg and Verona.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 9 and 37.
 I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 48 and 64.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
west central Ohio.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3992 8461 3992 8420 3986 8411 3965 8411
      3977 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 277DEG 33KT 3987 8442

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hatzos