Severe Thunderstorm Warning 412, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
315 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows
the CWA with a south-southwesterly flow aloft as an upper air low
spins over the easter MT/WY border. Current surface observations
along with radar imagery report scattered thunderstorms popping up
all across the CWA moving generally northeast as a cold front has
progressed around halfway from CO into the CWA. Going forward
through the rest of the day, models show the low opening into a
trough during the evening with the CWA keeping a west-southwesterly
flow through the night as the base moves over it. At the surface,
chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
through remainder of the afternoon and into the evening as the front
continues its eastward progress. Latest runs of the CAMs show these
chances ending for the CO counties around 23Z with the remaining
areas having their chances end around 01Z (when the current Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is expected to expire) as the line of storms
moves in central NE and central KS. Upon looking at model convective
parameters, bulk shear values well above 40 kts are seen across the
entire CWA during the time of expected convection with MLCAPE values
around 2000 J/kg just ahead of the front as it moves through. Due to
recent storm reports already experienced, potential storm hazards
include large hail up to 2 inches or greater in diameter, wind gusts
up to 70 mph, and brief tornados. Storms are moving quickly enough
that flash flooding does not appear to be an issue, but a brief
period of heavy rainfall has been experienced with storms so far and
can continue with storms going forward. Another concern with these
storms is that the strong wind gusts that they produce may cause
blowing dust lowering visibility drastically. After storms pass,
models show winds dying down allowing for a relatively calmer night
with skies clearing up and cooler temperatures. Overnight lows are
forecast to be between the lower 40s and lower 50s.

On Wednesday, forecast guidance continues to show the CWA under a
west-southwesterly flow with the trough reorienting itself with a
positive tilt in the morning with the trough axis to the west of the
CWA. The axis looks to pass over the CWA in the evening turning the
CWA's upper air flow to northerly going through the night. At the
surface, models show the CWA seeing a much less active day compared
to Tuesday as a surface high pressure is expected to move from CO
across southern NE. This high expects to keep precipitation chances
minimal throughout the day with drier air moving into the region.
Daytime highs for Wednesday expect to be in the upper 60s to middle
70s followed by overnight lows in the lower to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 125 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Cooling off for the first part of the long term period with
potential frost/freeze for some over the weekend prior to a warming
trend into the start of next week.

On Thursday, flow aloft is out of the west-northwest with an upper
level trough over the northern CONUS and recent progression of a
shortwave trough east of the area. Late Thursday into Friday, upper
level troughing begins to sink south as ridging amplifies over the
western CONUS. Generally northwesterly to west-northwesterly flow
will continue throughout the long term period. A shortwave
disturbance looks to move through towards the beginning of next
week.

The long term period will be mostly dry aside from some slight
chances for showers late Thursday-early Friday, generally for
northern and eastern portions of the area. Main story will be the
cooler overnight temperatures with some locations over the weekend
forecast to reach freezing as high pressure is over the area. Will
continue to monitor this potential. Expect high temperatures in the
60s and 70s Thursday, upper 50s to middle 60s Friday, 60s and 70s
Saturday, followed by a warming trend back into the 70s and 80s to
start the week. Overnight lows will be generally in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Difficult forecast for the 18Z TAF period, but anticipating VFR
conditions for both KGLD and KMCK throughout the TAF period. The
most difficult parts of the forecast come during the first 6-10
hours due to a cold frontal passage and the associated showers and
potentially severe thunderstorms developing with it. South-
southwesterly winds gusting up to around 25 kts are expected at
the start the look to veer to westerly with precipitation chances
starting. There may be a brief period where a thunderstorm
intensifies at both terminals which could increase wind gusts
dramatically. But after the severe weather ends, models show winds
taking a northwesterly flow and possibly become light and
variable by the evening hours. Winds at both terminals then look
to increase to around 10 kts on Wednesday morning. Will continue
to monitor conditions and amend TAFs if needed in case the cold
front changes its current pace and precipitation start times
change.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...076

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
155 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-042000-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
155 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023 /255 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect this afternoon and evening
for the entire Tri-State Area until 7 PM MDT / 8 PM CDT.

A late season outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected across
the Tri-State area today. By early this afternoon, scattered
thunderstorms will develop as a cold front moves through the area.
Some of these storms will become severe and are capable of producing
large hail up to two inches or greater in diameter, damaging wind
gusts up to around 70 mph, and tornadoes. Storm chances are
anticipated to last into the evening. Please stay weather aware
today!

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Patchy frost may develop Friday morning as temperatures drop into
the middle 30s.

The first freeze of the season may occur Saturday morning as
temperatures drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe or significant weather
to the National Weather Service in Goodland via telephone or social
media.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
317 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNE Goodland          39.37N 101.70W
10/03/2023  M53 MPH          Sherman            KS   ASOS

            ASOS station KGLD Goodland.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
325 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 W Norton              39.84N 99.98W
10/03/2023  M52 MPH          Norton             KS   Mesonet

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
327 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SE Oakley             39.10N 100.82W
10/03/2023  M54 MPH          Logan              KS   AWOS

            AWOS station KOEL 2 ESE Oakley.

&&

KAK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
328 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Clayton                 39.74N 100.18W
10/03/2023  E60 MPH          Norton             KS   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter estimates thunderstorm winds
            40-60 mph.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
331 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     Hail             4 SW Norton             39.80N 99.94W
10/03/2023  M2.00 inch       Norton             KS   Public

            Relayed report with picture of hail up to
            two inches in diameter at the Keith Sebelius
            Reservoir.

&&

KAK