Severe Thunderstorm Warning 402, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
127 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1244 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

With the environment favoring severe thunderstorm potential as
well as having thunderstorms already popping up within the CWA, a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 01Z this evening for
the entire Tri-State Area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Fairly decent set up for a late season severe outbreak today
across the area. Aloft, a potent negatively tilted shortwave
trough will move out of Colorado this afternoon providing more
than enough lift for convection to develop. At the surface, a
cold front will be moving west to east, providing additional
focus for initiation. Have already seen one wave of precipitation
move across the area overnight and another one will move through
this morning. However, the main concern will be the convection
along the front which will begin to develop around 19-20z in the
Tri-Border area of Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska and then sweep
eastward through the afternoon. At that time, forecast soundings
show up to 3500 j/kg of MUCAPE and deep layer shear of 60-80 kts.
Some question on whether the magnitude of the shear will
overwhelm the updrafts, but latest runs of the HRRR/NAMNST suggest
not. Instead, think we are going to see robust updrafts which
quickly develop into supercells capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes. Expected storm motion of right
movers is ENE at around 35 kts, which should mitigate any concern
for flash flooding. Almost all CAMs now showing best chances for
storms will be north of I-70 between about 19z and 22z, with
storms possibly congealing into a line in eastern areas late in
the afternoon. South of I-70 expecting storms to be more scattered
along the frontal boundary, but any storm that develops further
south will still have more than enough instability and shear for
supercells as well. Storms should exit the area to the east by
around 01z this evening. High temperatures will be in the 70s and
lows tonight in the 40s.

On Wednesday, will see a second shortwave trough move through, but
moisture is lacking and precipitation is expected. Looking at
partly sunny skies with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and
lows Wednesday night in the 40s.

On Thursday, another cold front will move through in the morning
reinforcing the cooler air. Appears to be a dry frontal passage
with the upper forcing displaced well to the north. ECMWF does
show some showers late Thursday night as we get brushed by that
shortwave to the north, but GFS is notably dry at this time. Highs
on Thursday will be in the 60s to lower 70s and lows Thursday
night in the mid 30s west to lower 40s east. Areas of frost will
be possible, provided the showers don't develop.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 125 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Cooling off for the first part of the long term period with
potential frost/freeze for some over the weekend prior to a warming
trend into the start of next week.

On Thursday, flow aloft is out of the west-northwest with an upper
level trough over the northern CONUS and recent progression of a
shortwave trough east of the area. Late Thursday into Friday, upper
level troughing begins to sink south as ridging amplifies over the
western CONUS. Generally northwesterly to west-northwesterly flow
will continue throughout the long term period. A shortwave
disturbance looks to move through towards the beginning of next
week.

The long term period will be mostly dry aside from some slight
chances for showers late Thursday-early Friday, generally for
northern and eastern portions of the area. Main story will be the
cooler overnight temperatures with some locations over the weekend
forecast to reach freezing as high pressure is over the area. Will
continue to monitor this potential. Expect high temperatures in the
60s and 70s Thursday, upper 50s to middle 60s Friday, 60s and 70s
Saturday, followed by a warming trend back into the 70s and 80s to
start the week. Overnight lows will be generally in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Difficult forecast for the 18Z TAF period, but anticipating VFR
conditions for both KGLD and KMCK throughout the TAF period. The
most difficult parts of the forecast come during the first 6-10
hours due to a cold frontal passage and the associated showers and
potentially severe thunderstorms developing with it. South-
southwesterly winds gusting up to around 25 kts are expected at
the start the look to veer to westerly with precipitation chances
starting. There may be a brief period where a thunderstorm
intensifies at both terminals which could increase wind gusts
dramatically. But after the severe weather ends, models show winds
taking a northwesterly flow and possibly become light and
variable by the evening hours. Winds at both terminals then look
to increase to around 10 kts on Wednesday morning. Will continue
to monitor conditions and amend TAFs if needed in case the cold
front changes its current pace and precipitation start times
change.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...076
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...076

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