Severe Thunderstorm Warning 421, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
726 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Cumulus along the dryline has vanished within the past couple of
hours, essentially ending the potential for new discrete
thunderstorm development across our western zones the remainder
of this evening. The main area of concern for severe convection is
our north/northeast counties, particularly northeast of the DFW
Metroplex, as a right-moving supercell cluster arrives from
Oklahoma. This activity is capable of all severe hazards, and
should be able to survive into the late evening/overnight period
as it rides southeastward along a surface instability gradient.
Locations roughly along and north of a Denton to Canton line in
particular should remain vigilant the rest of this evening.

Farther to the south in Central Texas, isolated storms were able
to develop on the dryline in conjunction with daytime heating, but
have since begun to weaken. Largely expect this trend to continue
the next couple of hours with overnight convective potential
remaining confined to North Texas.

The Heat Advisory configuration remains unchanged with this
update, but a small upgrade to Excessive Heat Warning in parts of
Central Texas may be necessary for tomorrow afternoon in
subsequent forecasts.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tomorrow/

Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening, mainly across North Texas and portions of
the Big Country. All hazards will be possible, including very
large hail, damaging wind gusts greater than 70-80 MPH, and
isolated tornadoes.

Low-level moisture continues to increase across the region this
afternoon in response to an approaching shortwave and attendant
surface low near the Panhandles, with surface dew points ranging
from the mid 60s along the Red River to upper 70s across Central
Texas. The attendant dryline will set up just west of the CWA this
afternoon, and discrete thunderstorms are expected to develop
along this boundary across the Big Country and north of the Red
River after 3-4PM. The environment ahead of this boundary will be
characterized by 50-60 knots of deep layer shear, 7-8 C/km lapse
rates, and MLCAPE values upwards of 4500 J/kg. Isolated discrete
thunderstorms that are able to develop along the dryline will
quickly become severe in this environment, with a threat for very
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes.

As the evening progresses, these thunderstorms will grow upscale
into a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms with a threat
for all modes of severe weather. As this complex surges east,
wind gusts upwards of 70-80 MPH will be possible. This threat will
mainly be confined to North Texas along and north of the I-20
corridor, but we cannot rule out thunderstorms further south
across Central Texas. Most activity should exit the region after
midnight.

In addition to the severe weather potential, the other main
weather headline is the return of the oppressive summer heat for
portions of North and Central Texas. High temperatures this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon will rise above the century mark,
while most of North Texas remains in the mid to upper 90s.
However, the combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will result in heat index values ranging from 105 to 110 degrees
each afternoon along and south of the I-20 corridor, including the
DFW Metroplex. Remember to take frequent breaks in the shade or
indoors if you're spending time outdoors and stay hydrated to
reduce the risk of any heat related illnesses.

Garcia

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 307 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023/
/Saturday and Beyond/

Before the focus completely shifts away from thunderstorms and
toward the incoming early summer heatwave, late Saturday will
feature one more shot of isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across portions of North and Central Texas. A dryline is expected
to mix toward our Big Country counties Saturday afternoon and may
provide the focus for isolated thunderstorm development.
Additionally, a complex of thunderstorms may develop over
portions of Oklahoma Saturday afternoon in the vicinity of greater
synoptic-scale lift associated with a rapidly-progressing
shortwave on the northern periphery of a building mid-level ridge.
This complex may push into portions of North Texas later Saturday
evening into Saturday night. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong
instability, and sufficient wind shear will increase the potential
for a few strong to severe thunderstorms late Saturday evening
into Saturday night.

The building heat will become the main story toward the end of
this weekend and into next week as an anomalously strong ridge
develops over the Southern Plains. In fact, forecasted 500mb
heights over North and Central Texas are expected to approach and
possibly exceed 90th Percentile climatology, especially in the
Monday- Wednesday time frame. As such, 24-27 degreeC 850mb
temperatures (approaching maximum sounding climatology!) will
likely advect over the region by early next week. This will lead
to afternoon highs in the mid-90s to near 100 degrees this weekend
with temperatures climbing into the upper 90s to mid-100s by
midweek next week. DFW is currently forecast to reach the century
mark on Tuesday. This would be about one and half weeks before the
average first 100 degree day, again highlighting the anomalous
nature of this early summer heatwave. Dewpoints in the upper 60s
to mid 70s will promote heat indices in the 105 to 110 degree
range through the long-term. As such, the Heat Advisory was
extended into Saturday evening and will likely be extended further
in future forecast updates. Upgrades to excessive heat headlines
will also be possible in future updates.

It is important to take the proper precautionary measures to
avoid heat-related illnesses this weekend and into next week.
Remain hydrated and try to stay indoors if possible. If you must
be outside, wear light-colored, loose-fitting clothing and take
frequent breaks in the shade. Remember to check up on your
friends and family members who may be more vulnerable to the heat,
especially children and the elderly.

Unfortunately, the oppressive summer heat looks to continue
beyond the 7-day forecast period and into the end of June.
GEFS/ECMWF temperatures anomalies highlight warmer than average
temperatures through the end of June, lining up quite well with
the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

D10 is positioned between ongoing thunderstorm activity along the
Red River and more isolated storms to the south in Central Texas.
The potential for storms immediately at the TAF sites has
decreased since dryline thunderstorm development has remained
rather isolated. The main threat for convective impacts at
Metroplex TAF sites will be in a few hours as a supercell cluster
along the TX/OK border dives southeastward. Even if this does not
affect the TAF sites directly, prolonged impacts to cornerposts
and northbound traffic can be expected through ~03z. Otherwise,
VFR will prevail with perhaps a few hours of MVFR cigs near 2 kft
tomorrow morning. Some minor visibility reductions are also
possible at all TAF sites, which would probably be borderline
VFR/MVFR. A south wind will prevail until the arrival of a surface
trough shifts winds to northerly around midday tomorrow.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  94  75  96  76 /  30   5   0  10  20
Waco                75 101  75  99  76 /  30   5   0   5  10
Paris               68  89  71  92  71 /  80  10   5   5  40
Denton              69  93  71  96  72 /  50   5   0  10  20
McKinney            69  91  72  94  74 /  80   5   0  10  20
Dallas              73  96  75  98  76 /  30   5   0  10  20
Terrell             72  93  73  95  75 /  50   5   0   5  20
Corsicana           76  98  76  96  78 /  30   5   0   5  10
Temple              77 104  76  99  76 /  30   5   5   5  10
Mineral Wells       69  94  71  98  73 /  20   0   0   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ118>123-132>135-
143>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
805 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-162330-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
805 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Severe thunderstorms will continue late this evening and tonight
mainly across North and Northeast Texas. Large hail and damaging wind
gusts are the main threats, but a tornado or two can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Additional storms will be possible Saturday evening and overnight.
There is a threat for a few severe storms mainly across North Texas.

The Heat Advisory will continue into the weekend, signifying the
continued threat for heat related illnesses if precautions are not
taken. Make sure to drink plenty of water, wear light colored
clothing and take frequent breaks if working outside.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested later this afternoon and evening.

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