Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2023

Tornado Watch 309

June 15, 202346 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jun 15, 2023, 3:45 PM CDT for 46 counties in Texas. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 15, 2023, 3:45 PM CDT (20:45 UTC)
Expired: Jun 16, 2023, 12:00 AM CDT
In force: 8 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 5 in
Strongest gust expected: 70 kt

All 46 counties

Bell County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Mason County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montague County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

The radar

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 70%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 70%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 70%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 95%

Warnings issued inside it

33 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 15, 4:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Mason, San Saba	51 min
Jun 15, 5:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	San Saba	45 min
Jun 15, 5:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	San Saba	16 min
Jun 15, 5:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	San Saba	24 min
Jun 15, 6:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	San Saba	29 min
Jun 15, 6:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Cooke, Montague	64 min
Jun 15, 7:04 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FWD	Cooke	41 min
Jun 15, 7:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	FWD	Cooke, Grayson	56 min
Jun 15, 7:43 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FWD	Cooke, Grayson	47 min
Jun 15, 8:16 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FWD	Montague	44 min
Jun 15, 8:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Cooke, Grayson	61 min
Jun 15, 8:48 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FWD	Cooke, Grayson	42 min
Jun 15, 8:56 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FWD	Cooke, Grayson	3 hr
Jun 15, 8:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Cooke, Montague	61 min
Jun 15, 9:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	FWD	Collin, Fannin, Grayson	62 min
Jun 15, 9:28 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FWD	Collin, Fannin, Grayson	47 min
Jun 15, 9:37 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FWD	Cooke, Montague	2 hr
Jun 15, 9:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	FWD	Collin, Cooke, Denton, Grayson	53 min
Jun 15, 9:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	FWD	Collin, Fannin, Hunt, Rockwall	62 min
Jun 15, 10:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Cooke, Montague	62 min
Jun 15, 10:14 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FWD	Collin, Fannin, Grayson, Hunt	46 min
Jun 15, 10:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	FWD	Collin, Dallas, Denton	36 min
Jun 15, 10:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Delta, Fannin, Hopkins, Lamar	34 min
Jun 15, 10:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Cooke, Denton, Grayson	62 min
Jun 15, 10:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Cooke, Montague	64 min
Jun 15, 10:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Cooke, Grayson	54 min
Jun 15, 10:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	FWD	Collin, Dallas, Delta, Hopkins, Hunt, Kaufman and 4 more	63 min
Jun 15, 10:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	FWD	Collin, Denton, Fannin, Grayson, Hunt	39 min
Jun 15, 11:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	FWD	Hunt	14 min
Jun 15, 11:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Collin, Cooke, Denton, Grayson	57 min
Jun 15, 11:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	FWD	Hopkins	21 min
Jun 15, 11:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	FWD	Cooke, Montague	47 min
Jun 15, 11:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Grayson	41 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3565 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -59 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 796 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 82 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 48 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.5
Supercell composite: 5.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 14, 8:50 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Camp, Cherokee, Ellis, Freestone, Gregg and 15 more	55 min
Jun 15, 2:15 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Collingsworth, Hardeman, Hemphill, Lipscomb, Ochiltree, Roberts and 3 more	90 min
Jun 15, 2:34 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Childress, Clay, Collingsworth, Foard and 11 more	6 hr
Jun 15, 2:53 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche and 32 more	2 hr
Jun 15, 4:52 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Childress, Collingsworth, Foard, Gray, Hardeman, Hemphill and 6 more	83 min
Jun 15, 4:53 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Lipscomb, Ochiltree	2 hr
Jun 15, 5:33 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Callahan, Coleman and 33 more	87 min
Jun 15, 6:54 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Collin, Cooke, Delta, Fannin, Grayson, Hunt and 1 more	96 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Texas, 2023 Every tornado watch in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.