Severe Thunderstorm Warning 430, NWS Fort Worth, TX

033 
WWUS54 KFWD 160730
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
230 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

TXC085-231-160800-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0430.000000T0000Z-230616T0800Z/
Hunt TX-Collin TX-
230 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN HUNT AND EASTERN COLLIN COUNTIES...

At 230 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Farmersville, 
moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wylie, Greenville, Royse City, Princeton, Farmersville, Lowry
Crossing, West Tawakoni, Quinlan, Caddo Mills, East Tawakoni,
Campbell, Hawk Cove, Merit, Lake Tawakoni, Greenville City Lakes,
Greenville Club Lake, Lake Tawakoni State Park, Nevada, Blue Ridge
and Josephine.

LAT...LON 3298 9595 3288 9599 3285 9596 3284 9593
      3284 9607 3314 9656 3335 9645 3309 9586
      3298 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0730Z 301DEG 34KT 3320 9640 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

Bonnette

721 
WWUS54 KFWD 160745
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
245 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

TXC085-160754-
/O.CAN.KFWD.SV.W.0430.000000T0000Z-230616T0800Z/
Collin TX-
245 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN COLLIN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3298 9595 3288 9599 3285 9596 3284 9594
      3284 9607 3298 9630 3327 9629 3309 9586
      3298 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0744Z 301DEG 34KT 3313 9626 

$$

TXC231-160800-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0430.000000T0000Z-230616T0800Z/
Hunt TX-
245 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN HUNT COUNTY...

At 244 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Caddo Mills, 
moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Royse City, West Tawakoni, Quinlan, Caddo Mills, East
Tawakoni, Campbell, Hawk Cove, Greenville Club Lake, Merit, Lake
Tawakoni, Greenville City Lakes, Lake Tawakoni State Park, Josephine,
Lone Oak, Kellogg, Cash, Clinton, Center Point and Floyd.

LAT...LON 3298 9595 3288 9599 3285 9596 3284 9594
      3284 9607 3298 9630 3327 9629 3309 9586
      3298 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0744Z 301DEG 34KT 3313 9626 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

Bonnette

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
121 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Night/

Convective activity has begun to wind down across North Texas
with only isolated borderline severe hail-producing storms
remaining as of 1 AM. A downward trend should continue the next
few hours with all convection exiting to the east by daybreak.

In the wake of overnight convection, hot and humid conditions
will prevail once again with mid/upper 70s dewpoints. Temperatures
this afternoon will be even more oppressive than yesterday
though, which will be due to the arrival of a weak surface low and
trough axis which will shift surface winds westerly prior to its
arrival. The resultant downsloping should send Central Texas highs
over 100F while dewpoints remain in the mid 70s through peak
heating. Since these values would combine to yield heat indices
near or above 115, the Heat Advisory has been upgraded to an
Excessive Heat Warning for our Central Texas zones for both
tomorrow and Saturday. Farther north, slightly lower temperatures
and dewpoints with light northerly winds should hold the rest of
the forecast area at or below Heat Advisory criteria, and the
remainder of the Heat Advisory configuration remains unchanged.

One possible issue through the short term which will need to be
monitored is the potential for isolated convection this afternoon
which would probably occur during peak heating along the surface
trough axis through Central Texas. This would be weakly forced,
and CAM guidance remains in a great disagreement, but it would be
prudent to advertise a small chance of thunderstorms roughly south
of I-20 and east of I-35. This convection could be severe with
the potential for hail and damaging gusts, if any updrafts are
able to become established. Some 20% PoPs have been introduced in
this area for the afternoon and evening time period.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 307 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023/
/Saturday and Beyond/

Before the focus completely shifts away from thunderstorms and
toward the incoming early summer heatwave, late Saturday will
feature one more shot of isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across portions of North and Central Texas. A dryline is expected
to mix toward our Big Country counties Saturday afternoon and may
provide the focus for isolated thunderstorm development.
Additionally, a complex of thunderstorms may develop over
portions of Oklahoma Saturday afternoon in the vicinity of greater
synoptic-scale lift associated with a rapidly-progressing
shortwave on the northern periphery of a building mid-level ridge.
This complex may push into portions of North Texas later Saturday
evening into Saturday night. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong
instability, and sufficient wind shear will increase the potential
for a few strong to severe thunderstorms late Saturday evening
into Saturday night.

The building heat will become the main story toward the end of
this weekend and into next week as an anomalously strong ridge
develops over the Southern Plains. In fact, forecasted 500mb
heights over North and Central Texas are expected to approach and
possibly exceed 90th Percentile climatology, especially in the
Monday- Wednesday time frame. As such, 24-27 degreeC 850mb
temperatures (approaching maximum sounding climatology!) will
likely advect over the region by early next week. This will lead
to afternoon highs in the mid-90s to near 100 degrees this weekend
with temperatures climbing into the upper 90s to mid-100s by
midweek next week. DFW is currently forecast to reach the century
mark on Tuesday. This would be about one and half weeks before the
average first 100 degree day, again highlighting the anomalous
nature of this early summer heatwave. Dewpoints in the upper 60s
to mid 70s will promote heat indices in the 105 to 110 degree
range through the long-term. As such, the Heat Advisory was
extended into Saturday evening and will likely be extended further
in future forecast updates. Upgrades to excessive heat headlines
will also be possible in future updates.

It is important to take the proper precautionary measures to
avoid heat-related illnesses this weekend and into next week.
Remain hydrated and try to stay indoors if possible. If you must
be outside, wear light-colored, loose-fitting clothing and take
frequent breaks in the shade. Remember to check up on your
friends and family members who may be more vulnerable to the heat,
especially children and the elderly.

Unfortunately, the oppressive summer heat looks to continue
beyond the 7-day forecast period and into the end of June.
GEFS/ECMWF temperatures anomalies highlight warmer than average
temperatures through the end of June, lining up quite well with
the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Nearby convection and attendant outflows have shifted D10 winds
to the NE as of 06z which will gradually return to ESE over the
next few hours. Afterwards, a brief period of MVFR cigs is
possible through mid-morning before a return to prevailing VFR
the rest of the day. The arrival of a weak surface front/trough
will shift winds to light northerly early in the afternoon at all
airports. There is a very low chance for isolated storms to
develop along this feature later in the afternoon which would be
most likely in Central Texas.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  96  76  97  75 /  10  10  20   5  10
Waco                75  99  76 101  75 /  20   5  10   0  10
Paris               71  92  71  91  70 /   5   5  40  20  10
Denton              71  96  72  95  70 /   5  10  20   5  10
McKinney            72  94  74  94  71 /  10  10  20   5  10
Dallas              75  98  76  98  75 /  10  10  20   5  10
Terrell             74  95  75  96  73 /  10   5  20   5  10
Corsicana           77  96  78  98  75 /  20   5  10   5  10
Temple              76  99  76 101  76 /  20   5  10   0  10
Mineral Wells       71  98  73  97  72 /   5   5  20   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ118>123-132>134-
143>145.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ135-
146>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1244 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-170000-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
1244 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Severe thunderstorms will continue overnight mainly east of I-35 and
north of I-20. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and flash flooding
are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Additional storms are possible Friday afternoon and again Saturday
evening. There is a threat for a few severe storms mainly across
North Texas.

Oppressive heat and humidity will continue into the weekend,
signifying the continued threat for heat related illnesses if
precautions are not taken. Make sure to drink plenty of water, wear
light colored clothing and take frequent breaks if working outside.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested later this afternoon and evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1238 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     Hail             3 NW Allen              33.15N 96.69W
06/16/2023  E1.00 inch       Collin             TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1250 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1241 AM     Hail             McKinney                33.20N 96.65W
06/16/2023  E2.00 inch       Collin             TX   Public

            Social Media report of 2 inch hail in
            Mckinney.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1253 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 AM     Hail             1 S Princeton           33.17N 96.50W
06/16/2023  E1.75 inch       Collin             TX   Public

            Public report of Golf Ball size hail in
            Princeton.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
109 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 AM     Hail             3 WNW Sherman           33.64N 96.65W
06/16/2023  E1.00 inch       Grayson            TX   Public

            Public report of quarter size hail in
            Sherman.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
129 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0121 AM     Hail             8 N Sadler              33.80N 96.85W
06/16/2023  M1.75 inch       Grayson            TX   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency Mngr reported golf ball size hail
            in Gordonville.

&&

PSR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
137 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 AM     Hail             3 N Sadler              33.73N 96.85W
06/16/2023  E1.25 inch       Grayson            TX   Public

            Public report of half dollar size hail north
            of Sadler.

&&

PSR