Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
140 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

The upper level flow will be transitioning to an Omega block pattern
over the majority of the CONUS through the short term period. Upper
level ridge is retrograding westward over the Northern Plains.
Upstream, an upper level low will be moving towards the California
coast and meanwhile, downstream, a mid-upper level near the New
England coast will continue to deepen and slowly shift
southeastward. The movement of this eastern low will drive a
backdoor/wedge front into north Georgia this morning, which will
progress southward over the course of the day and keep northeasterly
to easterly low-level flow in place across the area. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms have begun to enter the far northeastern
corner of the forecast area ahead of this front. Temperatures across
much of north Georgia will be limited to the low 80s, with mid 80s
expected elsewhere across the forecast area.

As a disturbance rotates around the western side of the low, lobe of
mid-level cyclonic vorticity will move southwestward through the Mid-
South and through west Georgia this afternoon. Ascent ahead of this
feature will help force the development of showers and
thunderstorms, with the highest chances being in the afternoon when
diurnal instability can aid in convective development. PoPs this
afternoon will be highest roughly along and north of the I-85
corridor, where likely PoPs are forecast. PoPs will progressively
diminish to the south and east. Low-level shear is expected to
remain minimal, but quasi-unidirectional flow aloft could allow for
the organization of storms into multicell clusters. Furthermore,
with low-level lapse rates of 7-9 C/km and DCAPE values potentially
reaching as high as 800 J/kg in northwest Georgia, it is possible
that some storms could become strong to severe, capable of producing
damaging wind gusts.

Rain chances will begin to diminish after sunset, coming to an end
by midnight. There will be little change in the mid and upper level
flow pattern on Monday, with the cutoff low over New England will
ushering in relatively dry air across much the area. These drier
conditions will be especially apparent in central Georgia, where
dewpoints will be in the 50s. Temperatures will be in the mid to
upper 80s across the area on Monday afternoon. While central Georgia
is expected to be dry, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across north Georgia, where dewpoints
will be slightly higher.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Longwave pattern will remain nearly unchanged through much of the
week with an Omega block covering much of the CONUS. Any rain/storm
chances across the area will largely be dictated by a persistent and
deep upr low/trough over New England. Lingering surface boundaries
could trigger a few afternoon/evening storms, but the best chance
for more organized convection (at this time) exists on Thursday when
the New England upr low sends a piece of energy south/east across
the area. Temperatures are expected to be seasonally warm for early
June, with slightly cooler/drier air expected by Friday/Saturday.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Largely VFR expected through the period, except for brief MVFR
in/near -RA. Light precip over ATL-area TAF sites should inhibit
TS development this afternoon. At some TAF sites, have shortened
TEMPO to 19-21Z, but at KATL, have removed it entirely. NE-E winds
today will shift to the SE after 08Z, and then to the SW after
16-18Z. Speeds will be 10kt or less. Precip potential for Monday
is too low to even include in a PROB30 at this time. SCT CU will
develop mid morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on lower TS potential this afternoon/evening.
High confidence on all other elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  87  65  90 /  10  20  20  30
Atlanta         64  86  67  88 /  20  20  10  30
Blairsville     58  81  59  84 /  30  30  20  30
Cartersville    61  88  64  89 /  30  20  20  30
Columbus        64  89  66  91 /  20  10  10  30
Gainesville     61  85  66  89 /  20  30  20  30
Macon           61  89  67  92 /  10  10  10  30
Rome            62  88  65  90 /  40  20  20  30
Peachtree City  61  87  65  89 /  20  10  10  30
Vidalia         62  87  66  92 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
108 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-051200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
108 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop by early this
afternoon, mainly across parts of north and west-central Georgia.
The primary threats with any storms will be brief gusty winds,
heavy rain, and cloud to ground lightning. An isolated severe
storm is possible, with damaging winds being the main concern.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms
are possible each day, through Thursday. A few better organized
storms will be capable of producing strong winds, heavy rain and
frequent cloud to ground lightning. Widespread severe weather is
not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

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