Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
727 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 428 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

As of 0830z (4:30 AM) this morning, a NE-to-SW oriented line of
convection with embedded supercells is nearing the NW corner of
the state. The line is progged to push through Metro Atlanta and
Athens between 11z-15z, and push through Macon and Columbus
between 13z-18z.

As far as the SPC Convective Outlook valid until 12z, far NW GA
remains under a Slight Risk with the remainder of N GA roughly
along and north of I-85 under a Marginal Risk. SPC/RAP
mesoanalysis depicts MLCAPE peaking around 500 J/kg across this
area as the line of convection moves through, along with both
effective SRH and 0-1 km SRH around 200-300 m^2/s^2 and favorably
curved hodographs. All this said, expect for convection to
maintain intensity across the Slight and Marginal Risk areas
through the morning and continue to pose a threat for damaging
wind gusts and tornadoes. Speaking specifically to the tornado
risk, a Tornado Watch is in effect across NW GA until 13z.

After 12z, the SPC Convective Outlook picks up with a Marginal
Risk generally along and south of I-20 and a Slight Risk roughly
from a Columbus to Macon to Augusta line. Assuming adequate
daytime heating and resulting destabilization, could see SBCAPE
and MUCAPE climb to 1000-1500 J/kg across the Slight Risk area
this afternoon. The environment is forecast to remain supportive
of robust updrafts -- with the potential for supercells -- given
hi-res models depicting sufficiently high supercell composite
parameter values (which take into account MUCAPE, effective SRH,
and effective bulk wind difference). In addition to damaging winds
and tornadoes, severe storms this afternoon could also produce
hail, though marginal mid-level lapse rates could prove to be a
limiting factor.

Cloud cover will clear quickly behind the line of convection as
the attendant cold front pushes through. A Wind Advisory is in
effect from 12z this morning to 03z Sunday (11 PM tonight) for
counties along and north of I-20. Sustained winds will be 20-25
mph and gusts will be 35-40 mph as the pressure gradient tightens
in the wake of the departing low pressure system that is driving
the severe weather threat. Wind gusts could be even higher at
elevations above 2000 feet.

Much colder air will arrive overnight with Sunday morning lows in
the mid-30s to to mid-50s. Sunday will be sunny to mostly sunny
with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s.

Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 428 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

A cold front will bring additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms for the late week into the weekend.

High pressure will be in place across the CWA for the first part
of next week. A cold front will begin to move out of the central
US into the Mississippi River Valley by late Tuesday into
Wednesday. The boundary should cross the Mississippi River on
Wednesday and then move through much of the CWA on Thursday. The
front will end up stalling across southern GA or the FL panhandle
for the latter half of the week into the early part of the weekend
as it becomes parallel to the flow in the mid levels. Models have
been pushing the boundary further south from run to run and not
confident that the boundary will push as far south as the northern
GOMEX. So, precip chances for the end of the week into the early
weekend will depend heavily on where the boundary sets up. Several
waves of low pressure are progged to move east along the
boundary, so the potential for locally heavy rainfall will exist
along and south of where the front stalls.

Models are also still progging the chance for some showers and
thunderstorms overnight Sunday into Monday as a strong southern
stream shortwave moves across the Gulf States. Thickness values do
indicate that there is some potential for an organized area of
thunderstorms and will not make any major changes to this period
in the forecast.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

TSRA have begun to impact RYY and PDK, with ATL and FTY expected
to get TSRA starting at 12z and AHN at 13z. This messy area of
convection will clear the ATL area sites and AHN by 15z-16z with
quickly improving ceilings in its wake. The convection will impact
MCN and CSG between 15z-17z. SW winds are breezy ahead of the
convection -- 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts. Winds will remain
just as gusty after the convection moves through, although wind
direction will become westerly.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          44  72  50  70 /   0   0  10  30
Atlanta         45  71  52  70 /   0   0  20  40
Blairsville     36  68  44  65 /   0   0  10  30
Cartersville    41  70  50  70 /   0   0  20  40
Columbus        48  75  54  75 /   0   0  20  50
Gainesville     43  71  50  67 /   0   0  10  30
Macon           49  74  53  75 /   0   0  10  40
Rome            41  71  50  70 /   0   0  20  40
Peachtree City  43  72  51  73 /   0   0  20  50
Vidalia         52  76  54  78 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>009-
011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>055-057.

&&

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
500 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
500 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A line of thunderstorms will move through much of north and
central Georgia today. A few of the thunderstorms could be strong
to severe. There is also some potential for isolated brief
tornadoes, but the primary severe weather hazard will be damaging
wind gusts.

Patchy to areas of frost are possible late Saturday night across
portions of northeast Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Thunderstorms will be possible again during the mid to late week
as a cold front stalls across portions of central Georgia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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